fast money evaluation (2023)

Weiss did not begin to explain why Fed-battered consumers arebreaking casino records

In the opening moments of Friday's Break Report (2/12), viewers heard Grandpa Steve Weiss's usual tirade.

It wasn't until the 44th minute that they heard from Contessa Brewer about WYNN and the game scene.

"The Strip is on fire...way ahead of 2019 levels," Brewer said.

This is interesting because earlier on the show, Weiss had said to Jim Lebenthal, "We're going to go into a recession and you're going to feel it."

So… Americans are breaking casino records this year, seemingly unaware or caring that they are headed for a recession next year. (While Fed speakers continue to work on solutions in search of a problem.) (Oh check this out: Nick Timiraos told the judge in overtime on Friday that "inflation is a big problem right now. Big problem for the casino industry.))

(On the other hand, Weiss is also pretty sure that airlines, who can't charge enough right now, will add all sorts of extra capacity next year, just when everyone decides they don't have enough money to book a flight anymore. .) (See a few days below.)

Weiss claimed on Friday that it's a "forked market" and suggested, as he always does, that his goal is simply to get the bulls wrong so he feels like he's the smartest guy in the room, that investors are "listening to what they want." ". believe."

Weiss didn't ask anyone in particular: "When in the history of the world a Federal Reserve tightening like we've seen, that we've never seen, leads to the start of economic expansion and the strength of the economy... It's not just crazy, he's stupidly crazy."

Jim Lebenthal, who like Weiss maintained his perspective throughout the year, said Weiss is "angrier than ever" but is just a "fish swimming upstream in the river" who needs to "acknowledge the facts about the land".

What are the chances, in a few years, that people will be surprised that rates in 2022 are over 4%?

On an upbeat note (as usual), Jim Lebenthal opened Friday's (2/12) halftime report by saying that "the likelihood of a soft landing is increasing."

Jenny Harrington agreed with some of Jim's perspectives, but said there is a "strong lid" or "heavy lid" on the market; she is "not excited".

"How much more is there?" on the bright side, Jenny asked.

Jason Snipe suggested "Maybe we'll avoid a recession" or it's "much shallower" than feared.

The judge said that Michael Hartnett is "pretty tough" (laughs) (second use of that term in a week) on the markets, and Hartnett suggested that the "buy signal" is "near the end."

5-star fund manager Kevin Simpson sat down with the team; he said: "We're getting a little more defensive."

The judge promised Jeremy Siegel overtime; on that show, Siegel noted that "hours worked" decreased in the latest jobs report.

Jeremy said Jerome Powell made a "close pivot" on Wednesday.

The judge told Siegel, "I'm not going to judge your politics. I leave that to people like you."

"I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of next year we have double leverage on the fed funds rate," Siegel said.

Bryn 'didn't sign up' for turmoil in cryptocurrency world

From time to time, Halftime Report viewers hear interesting rationalizations for why certain actions or participations didn't pan out.

That is what happened on Thursday (12/1) when Bryn Talkington discussed the sale of ARKK and COIN.

Bryn first sought reassurance that he somehow traded ARKK extremely well, twice mentioning how he bought it in March 2020, and then saying he "shrinked" the stake at the end of 2020 and "2 more times in 2021."

Bryn cited Zoom and others as having "forwarded a decade of growth."

fair. Bryn then declared COIN essentially a victim of "all this bullshit going on" in crypto, where Bryn predicts "another shoe dropped here."

Then came the money quote: "I didn't sign up for this," Bryn said.

Hmmmm…someone buying shares in a cryptocurrency-linked company…hmm, let's call it an “industry”…(because “marketing campaign” sounds harsh)…evidently didn't think the turmoil in this sector was probable .

It appears, based on our limited charting capabilities, that COIN, which was trading at $340 about a year ago, peaked on its first day.

Stock problem 'has always been stock price'

The judge probably overloaded his panel at the break on Thursday (12/1), but the result was several moments of lively conversation.

Steve Weiss curiously borrowed a term from Jim Lebenthal's playbook, mentioning "deglobalization" and how it will potentially "clog the supply chain again." (He didn't mention China "going after" Taiwan, probably with the goal of setting up more COVID lockdowns.)

Later, the judge asked Jim for a CRM strategy. Jim said he won't sell, it's a big company; "The problem has always been the stock price."

Jim said he won't be buying CRM on Thursday, but is "looking to buy more."

Josh Brown, meanwhile, claimed he bought CRWD on the slide, but said the key to growing tech names in 2023 is "not owning your seventh best idea." (This is probably good advice for any time.)

Jim candidly admitted: "In general, these high-priced software stocks are not my job."

Brian Belski, the show's featured guest, has a 2023 target range of 3,600 to 4,800. (The judge, for reasons we can't understand, believes these numbers are significant.)

(But not as significant as what Marko Kolanovic's note said this week, or what Andy Jassy said about the consumer.)

"I think commodities and utilities are no longer on the defensive," Belski said.

Jim made a good joke about Weiss sitting next to Brian Belski.

Josh Brown said he owns CHPT, "probably one of the most speculative stocks I own." He said he will wait "regardless" of what management says about earnings.

It may or may not be hotly debated, but it is certainly the most anticipated.

In Thursday's (12/1) halftime report, Liz Young suggested there is a "chance" this is "the most hotly debated recession in history."

Steve Weiss said Jay Powell didn't "double down" on his aggressive stance, which is why the market soared.

But Weiss said he thinks "there's going to be a recession next year."

Liz said any expectation that "something more dovish" from the Fed would be bullish on stocks is "misplaced."

"I still think investors need to be cautious here," Young said. (Unlike any other time in financial history when people should… buy stocks without caution.)

Weiss sold UAL by seeking more leverage elsewhere, predicting "more capacity" next summer without offering any proof or reason why such additional capacity, if it happens, would be counterproductive if the price of flights were so high. The judge let him pass without hesitation.

fast money evaluation (1)

Steve Liesman grapples with outdated bankruptcy consumer resistance from judge

The judge, for whatever reason, was determined to name Marko Kolanovic and Andy Jassy whenever possible in Wednesday's (11/30) halftime report, and ultimately Steve Liesman delivered that boring chorus to the Heisman with a nonchalant so impressive that we were practically in awe.

After the fifteenth mention of Andy Jassy's consumer thoughts, Steve told the judge: "I'd just be a little careful with a company anecdote as general evidence."

"Well," the judge stammered. (Seriously, it was a sizzle.) "I mean, Steve, this is Amazon. Right? Right? This is not, you know, a mom-and-pop store," the judge said.

"Didn't they just say they had their best, um, Black Friday ever?" Steve replied.

"Yes. The consumer is spending," the judge admitted.

"So, case closed, right? Case closed, Scott!" Steve said.

“No, it is not a closed case. It is what comes” (laughter), said the judge.

Steve talked about car sales and housing units sold, saying, "I'm going through a tough time...Scott, we can discuss views on the future. But the future is not a given, Scott."

The judge agreed: "Nothing is set in stone."

Steve first explained about the Fed's strategy: "It's not science, Scott. It's art. Or maybe I'm exaggerating how good this is. It's not necessarily art. Maybe graffiti is a better way to put it."

Actually, graffiti is not a bad description.

Steve concluded by looking at all the people who bet against consumer resilience in the second half of the year: "You're wrong."

The judge mocked the bad market in the morning and took a big boomerang

Ed Yardeni, the guest star of Wednesday's halftime (3/11), was quoted by the judge in the introduction as saying he thinks it's "hard to see" a record S&P 500 in the next two years.

The judge said that "that has changed" from what Yardeni said weeks ago.

Ed said that he "worded it very carefully", although it's still in the "soft landing field", but the multiples "are still pretty high".

Yardeni said that consumers continue to buy. “They keep spending,” Yardeni said. But the judge said that Andy Jassy is giving a "harsh" picture (laughter) of the economy.

Whatever Yardeni said, the judge was determined to speak out about "consumer undermining," even noting the "dramatic substitution I see in the marketplace" at the 21-minute mark. (That's like advertising the Falcons' third-quarter odds for Super Bowl 51.) (This review was posted overnight on a Wednesday/Thursday.)

fast money evaluation (2)

If Joe knew CRWD was overcrowded, why didn't he unload before the earnings?

In Wednesday's (11/30) halftime report, Joe Terranova said that for the stock market to recover, Powell must "comfort" a market that is "disturbed."

"We can't repeat Jackson Hole," Joe added.

The judge told Kari Firestone with a straight face, "Look, the economy is obviously weakening."

Then, launching into his topic of the day, the judge said that Marko Kolanovic seems "totally bearish" and sees "excessive tightening" by the Fed.

But any momentum on the show was shattered when the 3 minute judge went to Andrew Ross Sorkin's interview with Andy Jassy.

that didn't exactly offer many answers to make headlines


When the show returned, the judge kept Jassy's comments available for later use, while addressing the guy at Morgan Stanley, who is now calling for "as much as a 24% drop from yesterday's close to early next year."

Joe said bluntly, "The Fed needs to slow down the rate at which they do stress testing... They're going to give the patient a heart attack."

"This is a supply challenge. There is no need for a crash landing on Main Street," Joe explained.

"Yes, but that's where the biggest delay comes from, because of the amount of stimulus that was on Main Street," the judge said.

"Do we want people to lose their jobs?" Joe wondered.

The judge said the Morgan Stanley guy's comments "are not a huge surprise," but Kolanovic's opinion sounds like a "difference-maker" (laughs).

Later in the show, the judge asked Joe what he did with CRWD. Joe appeared to blame the analyst community, citing "37 Buys, 3 Holds, Zero Sells," before announcing, "As of today's close, I'm going to sell the stock. You know why? Crowdstrike is crowded."

Joe even claimed that he told the judge off-camera Tuesday that he "saw it coming last week... It was absolutely packed."

Mark Newton said 134 is the near-term "key level" for the AAPL.

In fact, Mike Santoli claimed that the 2001 market swing that persists in 2002 is "on people's minds" now.

Remember when CNBCers used to say 'Oh, that would be cool' if Sheryl Sandberg got the DIS job?

Halftime Report viewers probably cringed on Monday (11/28) when the judge asked Jim Lebenthal about...yes...DIS (see below).

The occasion was Bob Iger's mayoralty, which didn't air on CNBC (it was a scoop missed by someone) but aired while it was in progress, i.e., during the Halftime Report. (We don't understand why Bob couldn't have given Julia Boorstin and Judge a few minutes, or even had an Edge ETF chat with Bob Pisani, but whatever.)

The judge said Iger said Monday that the DIS can no longer focus on adding streaming subscribers but needs to "pursue profitability," which the judge explained was the "paradigm shift" in the streaming business (which always has been a skeptical business model, but merchants love the service for people to buy Netflix stock).

Jim said that profitability is 12-14 months away and strangely said that Iger's comment “leaves me cold”.

"What is he going to do, fast forward 2 months and be a hero to everyone?" Jim wondered.

Jim expressed skepticism that Bob Chapek would be fired in "Q1". (In fact, he was fired because he was hired to be an interim CEO, not anyone's visionary, and the long search for Iger's successor came to nothing.)

The judge insisted that it is no longer "number of subscribers", but "profitability" which is "be all, end all" (laughs).

Jim responded that profitability "comes from subscriber growth." (What he didn't say is that subscriber revenue is offset by even past presidents' relentless spending on content to develop hit shows.) Jim said that 2024 is the year of streaming profitability for DIS and PARA. The judge said Wall Street is saying "that's too long."

"That's exactly when you want to buy it," offered Jenny Harrington, who would "absolutely" buy the DIS today, even though she bought it for $120 in the summer of 2021.

Joe Terranova said he doesn't understand why DIS isn't "dead money."

What exactly is the definition of "too far"?

Steve Liesman opened Monday's (11/29) halftime report by saying that John Williams was about to give a speech saying inflation is “too high”.

(And exactly what problem was Mr. Williams identifying? Steve didn't say. Clearly, a robust economy "no landing" (according to many) while prices are "hot" is illegal.)

Jenny Harrington said the market was realizing on Monday that "there may not be a lot of reasons for a meaningful rally from here."

Joe Terranova let out this roar: "Once again, the Federal Reserve is not going to let asset prices get too far away from them." (Actually, the only one they really control is the stock market (so get ready for more rants).)

In an admittedly contentious call, Joe said to "forget" the S&P 500; the "only" index likely to rise later in the year is the Dow, because these stocks "represent defensive positioning."

The judge noted that Apple is in the Dow Jones and wondered how Joe could so easily "dismiss" it. Joe said that the "overwhelming majority" of Dow's stocks are the types that ... appear to work out.

Jenny Harrington first made it sound like it wasn't working out much, then said that "real estate," "value stocks," "healthcare," and "dividends" stocks could all go up later in the year, and it seemed like she would have continued. forward if the conversation had not been redirected.

Jenny said she called AAPL "dead money" on April 29, 2021. (That was before she bought DIS for $120.)

Jim Lebenthal said, for probably the 100th time, that "value is catching on now," even mentioning how companies are "clearing land to build new semiconductor factories." Jim also brought up "supply chain relocation" again.

Joe told Jim that "economic conditions" aren't as important as earnings and valuations and said, "Apple goes to 130, the market doesn't go, the market doesn't go up. The market is going down," even for the " June lows. 🇧🇷

The judge hasn't worn glasses in a long time.

In the halftime report on Monday (11/28), Jenny Harrington praised the LAMR.

Judge shrugged, saying advertising seems like a "weird place to be optimistic."

Jenny said there's a "big difference" between "broad" or "digital" advertising and billboards that have a "captive audience."

Jenny said that "2.5 million" people drive the Jersey Turnpike every day. "There may be more," the judge speculated.

Jenny also praised the SBLK, which she said was "minting money."

Jonathan Krinsky tried to suppress hopes of a rally, stating: "December in bear or bear markets is a very different story than the average December."

On the other hand, "There are no signs of a recession," insisted Jim Lebenthal.

Jenny Harrington said Black Friday sales were "out of control".

Jenny talked about KSS, but Joe Terranova questioned clothing vendors instead of, say, grocery vendors.

Jenny said the "low fruit" on defense stocks was over and analyst updates should have been "March of last year."

Jim admitted that Macau is "dead in the water" at the moment, but reiterated, as he always does, that when it comes to WYNN stock, Macau is a "zero cost call" and WYNN is a trade-only buy. US Joe said that he would not buy WYNN or LVS, that he is "suspicious" of developments in China and not of the right "consumer environment" for it.

Joe, in the end, pointed to the performance curve as reflective of the consumer, indicating big trouble ahead. Jim said that's a good point, it's been a "year of mixed signals" because air travel and unemployment don't indicate a recession in the future, although the yield curve does.

fast money evaluation (3)

This page reviews Bob Pisani's book promoting index investing

It took a while, but we got there.

A month ago, Bob Pisani, a senior market correspondent for CNBC, published a book calledShut up and keep talking.The book has a published price of $29.99, but is selling through Amazon for $23.99. Everyone is happy that Bob has finished a book. But is it worth it?

We were surprised to find that much of the book is not about TV hits, but investment advice. Bob calls himself a "disciple" of Jack Bogle, and that's all you need to know. Sure, there are tons of juicy stories about behind-the-scenes moments with a cable channel, but Bob doesn't spread dirt. Everyone at CNBC is basically the smartest people in the room. fair. (Judge and Melissa Lee and most of the CNBC on-air figures and producers are mentioned in a lengthy retelling at the end.)

What's disappointing is that Bob, who gained notoriety during the pandemic for the large collection of concert posters on his walls, barely weighs in on that scene. He also doesn't reveal much about his pre-CNBC academic or professional background, which is useful information when reviewing someone's investment recommendations.

see for yourselfin reviewing this site.

fast money evaluation (4)

Did the previous CEO 'goof'? (Or has Iger, who resisted streaming for years, cleverly stepped out of the big rabbit hole earlier and hung the new guy out to dry?)

This page recently concluded, based on a number of factors, that CNBC has sadly given up on airing shows like the Old-fashioned Halftime Report and Fast Money all in a studio sitting next to each other.

But the seats are gradually filling up (even with a wide gap between them), and the head-to-head dynamic is adding some octane to the show's debates.

That was the case on Tuesday (11/22), for the second time this week, when Stephanie Link and Josh Brown picked up where the judge and Jim Lebenthal left off a day earlier in...yes...DIS.

The judge opened the show by saying that Link bought the DIS. "It reminds me of Starbucks," said Stephanie, noting that the stock is down "37% year to date." (And if Melissa Lee were hosting, she'd say, "Maybe you don't DESERVE to be that tall!").

Link "wouldn't be surprised" if Bob Iger were in office for more than 2 years.

Brown said Link can make money in 2 years, but DIS is "not a cheap stock."

Brown said Bob Iger will "do something big" and even "maybe they'll run to Netflix" but "I think there's another leg down."

Link said he wants DIS to buy Hulu (joy) and do business. "It needs to gain size and scale," Link said.

"He'll go for more size and more scale," thought the judge.

"I think they might," Link said.

Brown noted the "magnitude" of spending $30 billion on movie content last year, while the ROI is "negative."

"The previous CEO screwed up," said Link, who said it's "very rare to get a stock of this caliber ... even at that valuation." How "rare" is it to get this action or any other action? You mean it's "weird" to descend so low from above? (So, let's revisit the possible quote from Mel above.)

The judge said, "The previous CEO didn't have the purest vibe either... obviously mistakes were made, but let's not act like he made all the mistakes." (What if we acted like Iger knew all along that streaming is unprofitable or very profitable and it's a rabbit hole of money and resources and he knew the company was being pressured to do all this and he didn't want to be the one doing it?) hold the bag when the "paradigm" starts to shift and thought this guy would fit as someone who wouldn't be the long-term successor anyway).

"He did a lot of them. And that cost structure is huge, which he did, and the reorganization didn't work out," Link said. "He didn't get the talent that I think Iger might have."

Brown noted that the stock was only up from 92 to 95 this week, saying that "the market has had about 8 hours to get excited and it reversed."

"It's a disputed property, um, right now. Trying to figure out the broadcast issue, right?" the judge said. Brown said DIS is "stuck in this environment," pointing to significantly tougher trade-offs in travel and leisure in 2023.

“I can say the exact same thing about Netflix, and you're on Netflix,” Link said.

"Does Netflix own theme parks?" Brown said.

"If it's hard for the consumer in the parks, it can also be hard for streaming, and it's not just specific to Disney. And these stocks are down 37% and I'm buying 37%," Link repeated. (Go back to Mel on that 37% argument again.)

"US$ 10 contra US$ 5.000", diserta Brown.

"Whatever," Link shrugged.

The judge said, "Netflix obviously has an advantage in the race." (It's not a "race" anymore, it's a rabbit hole for wasting money and resources that will never again reward stocks like it has with the NFLX for the last decade.)

"Netflix is ​​the only profitable streamer!" Brown said.

"That hasn't helped the stock. It's already down 53% year to date. Disney has really outperformed Netflix," Link said.

The judge said that Barry Diller said a few weeks ago on Squawk Box that "game is over" on streaming, in favor of Netflix.

fast money evaluation (5)

Face-to-face sessions begin to pay off for Interval Reporting

Here we were, buzzing with another lively DIS discussion in the recess on Tuesday (11/22)...and then we saw Jim Lebenthal back at the table just one day after taking the matter up in court with the judge.

Jim suggested that current multiples and corporate values ​​are not that relevant, saying there is a "paradigm shift" and that the secondary spending will eventually "pay off."

Fortunately, the judge, who was quite benign on Tuesday, moved on to other people.

Anastasia Amoroso opined that "it could take a few years" until the DIS is fixed.

Does anyone know that DIS is down 37% on the year?

In Tuesday's (11/22) half-time report, the judge said that Carl Icahn still has a "pretty large position" selling GME, but that Carl "did not want to comment when I spoke to him on the phone this morning."

The judge said that what he "learned about Carl" is that when he "does a short like this, it sticks."

Jim Lebenthal said Icahn has the money to go short, but "it's not easy" to short stocks.

Josh Brown said many GME fans "have moved on to other things" and it would be "weird" to believe that "history will repeat itself" as stocks soar.

On the other hand, Anastasia Amoroso said: "The rates are 5%. The housing market is not going to recover any time soon." Stephanie Link said: "We have a lot of momentum in the economyyet."

"Markets are down 16% year to date and the Nasdaq is down twice as much," Link added. (That's another red flag for Missy Lee.)

Jim said he got rid of the MDT, a "bad investment." Jim said he's looking for "retail cool" names to buy, like NKE, DKS, WMT (wow, none of those are broadcast names). "I'm underweight there" at retail, Jim said.

Shannon Saccocia was not on the panel, but she owns BBY and celebrated the day's win with a remote appearance.

Semiconductor trading was also briefly discussed (Zzzzzzzzz).

Ann Berry said she finds "the price of S&P right now, uh, a little unnerving." She said she's "not particularly optimistic" about where DIS is headed "until she starts hearing some really strong execution plans." The judge said Berry owns the DIS personally.

Stephanie Link said the IBM CEO is doing a "great job."

Jim said that CRM "isn't one of those bad companies like MongoDB or Datadog."

Josh Brown said insurance stocks are one reason he "should be looking at the 52-week list."

fast money evaluation (6)

Even Josh was speechless: Jim says talking to the judge is like 'talking to a brick wall'

Hey boy.

Monday's break report (11/21) seemed to be another week of quiet vacation, an introduction to the Courtney-Reagan-and-Bill-Griffeth-or-Tyler-Mathisen-of-a-mall-New Jersey production on every Black Friday.

Instead, DIS rocked the Wall Street-Hollywood axis and just a few minutes of trading on the Halftime Report sent us to the typewriter for an hour or so.

And somehow none of that addressed the real problem here, which is thatstreaming really isn't very profitable, if at all.

Regardless, DIS supporter Jim Lebenthal served the piñata of the day, but he wasn't exactly handing out candy when the judge entered his case in the 14th minute.

Before we get into that dialogue, let's try to explain who took the lead in this exchange without perhaps doingboth sideshe wants to throw eggs at us.

1. Jim correctly pointed out Judge's increasing tendency to pronounce every one of his own assessments that he suggests or floats on his show as "fact."

2. Jim can be a frustrating panelist (Psssst: let's call him "annoying") because it's often the same message month after month, year after year, regardless of any trend, possibly a longer-term trend. Almost all panelists have this problem to some degree, but most give up on wrongdoing much faster than Jim. The judge in these cases, rightly, is trying to shake things up. Figuratively speaking, he's trying to get the Pittsburgh Steelers to make a roster trade, and they just don't want to hear it.

3. Jim and Judge discussed the difference between "execution" and "strategy." They were both right. (Sigh.) (More on that in the next post below.) Here's an analogy: A football manager decides that he's just going to call runs and not call plays. The offense rushes for 300 yards per game. But the team is 2-9. Jim would say that the execution is good; the strategy is what is questionable and, in his opinion, will eventually work. The judge would say that the execution was unsuccessful.

4. Jim and Judge discussed the difference between "fact" and "opinion." (Yes, that too). This is where frustration takes hold of the judge; Jim has a right to affirm his faith in his favorite stocks, even if they have a bad week, month, or decade.

IT'S OKAY. At 14 minutes on Monday, the judge began a speech: "The whole problem here is that the industry, the narrative is changing from a subscriber-at-all-costs environment where it won't be that anymore. Hastings alluded to that with Netflix... Chapek redirected all of Disney's focus and money towards subscriber growth, profitability be damned. He was hit by that last quarter. When the losses were much bigger than Wall Street had predicted. They tried to compete with Netflix. in a very short period of time. That's what they told me was the most wrong thing to do. And he couldn't or wouldn't walk away from it. That's execution.

"No, that's the strategy," Jim said. "What you just said is strategy."

The judge said, "Jim, the environment: you said that stocks are not being rewarded for investment. That's what you said. Because investment grade is now seen as a detriment. Not a benefit. That's a done".

"That's opinion. Jesus," Jim said.

"IT IS A FACT!" The judge insisted.

"It's an opinion! I mean, is it so hard for you to understand the difference between fact and opinion?" Jim said.

“I'm looking at what happened in the deal. That's a fact. That is a fact," the judge said.

"The business hasgrown up,Jim insisted.

"Well, did they add subscribers out of nowhere? Yes. You're right. It's grown," the judge scoffed.

"I mean, what do they have, 125 million subscribers in 2 and a half years, 3 years?" Jim snapped.

"What I mean is that the total number of subscribers is not something to look at anymore. It's how much are you spending to get them. And how profitable are you. Or not," Judge said.

"And profitability is coming, Scott," Jim said.

They then got involved in Nelson Peltz being "there", which the judge mentioned. Jim said that means Nelson "got my thesis too!"

The judge wondered, "Do you think he finds the execution so fabulous?"

"Well, why else would I invest in this, Scott?"

"To try to make changes to the execution. What do you mean?" said the judge.

Joe Terranova came over and asked Jim, "Do we know if they support the change in administration?" Jim said that he doesn't know; he did not speak to Nelson Peltz. Joe said, "Well, if he doesn't, that's a problem."

Jim said that if it were a "permanently bankrupt company", Peltz would not invest. "It's not a permanently bankrupt company, that's because of the fact that he makes a living," the judge said.

"Okay," Jim said.

"Why would you invest in a bankrupt company permanently?" The judge insisted.

"I think we're just throwing rocks at each other now. Really. Every once in a while you tell me you think you're talking to a brick wall. I'll tell you I feel the same way about you." Jim said.

"Wow," replied the judge.

Moments later, Jim said that they were in "Thanksgiving dinner mode." The judge said, "If this is what his Thanksgiving dinners are like, don't invite me to his house." Jim chuckled, before saying, on the subject of fees, that he's on "Team Siegel" and making it clear that it's an "opinion" not a "fact."

"It's a good thing you're not defensive," said the judge.

At this point, we were still wondering if this episode could get Jim, like the Najarians, kicked out of the union. (This is said jokingly... but only half jokingly.)

Apparently not. Moments later, the judge told Jim, "I'm sorry I threw some cranberry sauce on you."

"We are fine!" Jim said. "We all threw rocks for a while there and no one was seriously hurt, so we just kept going."

"Yes. Very good, good material," concluded the judge.

fast money evaluation (7)

Jim didn't know about Iger's return until he saw the ticker.

In addition to the breakout report on Monday (11/21), Jim Lebenthal revealed that he woke up to see DIS rising 9% pre-market without hearing the news from the CEO, who said they weren't "worthy" of that guy. of gain.

Jim suggested that the company is "performing well," but Chapek was depressed by "the fight he had with Governor DeSantis, uh, earlier this year," which "put a crosshair on his back."

The judge said "performing well" is "the main reason" for this conversation, not the "fight with DeSantis."

The judge cited recent earnings and said the NFLX has "pivoted" toward the "changing environment" direct-to-consumer, and "it was pictured for me by the people I spoke to today" (translation: ignored the hints this page left us beyond 12 months as of Monday morning) that Chapek "never got the note, that he played the wrong game for too long and never course corrected, so the execution itself was bad, not good."

"Okay, I disagree. Where are we going to agree..." Jim replied.

"What do you disagree on? I just gave you facts, that's what we do all the time-"

"Let me finish here," Jim said.

“I argue facts. You resist with fiction”, said the judge.

"Whoever's in control can't change the fact that a hurricane came through and destroyed some of the revenue that would otherwise have been produced at Disneyland (sic), uh, during the last quarter," Jim said, a curious excuse for the DIS Earnings Report.

"I think the company is doing well. I think the company is doing well. It's the stock price that's broken," Jim added, stating: "These are opinions that we don't agree on. ".

"Okay, according to you," the judge said, noting that Joe Terranova sold the DIS 2 weeks ago.

"If the execution was that good, we wouldn't be having this conversation today," Judge told Joe, admitting, "Chapek wasn't exactly the best hand to play at the table, okay?"

However, the judge said the sale of Joe's shares was a "statement in itself."

"I've had enough," Joe said, explaining that the DIS has "significant operational challenges," including cutting wires, "hiring ad spend" and challenged consumers.

A streaming service for a company like Disney is like a print newspaper creating a website.

Before Jim Lebenthal got involved with the referee at the halftime report on Monday (11/21), it was Josh Brown who set him up with the rancher.

Regarding Jim's defense of DIS, Brown said, "Jimmy's problem is not picking good companies and picking stocks. I think he's very good at it. The problem is he doesn't know what time it is. It's not your I want to be, uh, leveraged for a weakening consumer and a weakening economy... You could make Pluto the CEO You don't want Disney to go into recession.

Brown said he would "take the Treasury bill" on the DIS.

The judge said he would allow Jim to give an "answer."

Jim said that the "important" part of what Josh said was "the word leverage." Jim said, "These companies are now investing in the future of the business" and next year will be the "peak" in transmission losses for DIS and PARA.

Kari Firestone, who was largely left out, said she was following DIS "when Josh was in fourth grade." Kari said Eisner and Iger achieved "growth through spending and acquisition."

"Iger never took shortcuts. He never really simplified the company," explained Kari, one of the more insightful commentators on the company on CNBC on Monday.

"He's going to have to do it," the judge said.

"Marvel's Phase 4 was a critical disaster and a box office flop," said Josh Brown.

"Didn't we just make 300 million on Black Panther?" Jim Lebenthal asked twice in response.

"Man, man, it's melting," Brown said. "Each successive show they add leads to dwindling subscriber growth."

"The lifespan of this movie is a huge problem for Disney. Huge," insisted Brown.

Basically, Chapek didn't impress anyone as a great leader (while Loretta Mester claims she represents the public)

Elsewhere on CNBC Monday (11/21), we heard from David Faber in the afternoon explaining that, for Bob Chapek, there was "greater concern" at Disney about "costs associated with direct-to-consumer efforts," as well as "growing disenchantment at the top of the company among some executives, at least with their leadership as well."

Elsewhere on Closing Bell, Sara Eisen asked Loretta Mester: "It's almost like a concerted effort by the Federal Reserve to dampen the very positive market response to the inflation number. Is that what's happening?"

"No, when I come on your show, I'm not trying to channel anyone except my own views (which doesn't answer Sara's question)... I'm not an elected official, I think I owe it to the audience". I represent those who understand how I'm thinking."

In the halftime report, Joe Terranova pointed out people who complained that he talks too much about MRK.

This pagetwicebegged the judge in the last 12 months to ask people if Chapek would be the CEO of DIS in 3 years

Well what do you know.

A year agoat that point (see screenshot below for what the file title looks like - yes, it looks like a new title on this page),This page, sensing that Bob Chapek wasn't a natural fit as Disney CEO, ran a headline suggesting that the judge ask Halftime Report guests if this Chapek will be the next Brian Moynihan...or the next Léo Apotheker.

And a few months later, we again suggested that the judge ask this question.

The judge never did.

Not then, not recently.

And now, like the rest of the world, it is trying to catch up with that story.

This page, as always, is happy to lend our jokes/scoops to CNBC's on-air talent for free use.

You can take horses to water, but...

It is not the first time that the judge has been filtered by this page and surely it will not be the last.

fast money evaluation (8)

fast money evaluation (9)

congratulations, john

There hasn't been much good news on Wall Street in 2022.

But on Friday, the judge announced that the JOET, which marks its second anniversary, is up 12.4% since its inception, while the S&P 500 is up 11% and the Nasdaq 100 is down 2%.

Joe Terranova helpfully said that JOET "evolved very quickly" away from a tech meltdown, selling NFLX at 513 in April 2021, CRM at 230, then dumping NKE at 167 and PYPL at 163 and META at 200.

Steve Weiss said he invests in JOET because it gives him "great diversity" and "some juice" in his portfolio.

But Weiss isn't asked for an opinion on calling Carl "already" in recession

After a losing year on Wall Street, expectations are a bit low.

"If we finish the year here, I'll call it a big win," Jenny Harrington said in the halftime report on Friday (11/18).

Jenny said that 4100 is "not that exciting" but "really incremental."

The judge said that the market is a "tale of two terms" (laughs).

Steve Weiss, as usual, insisted that "first quarter earnings will suck."

Weiss again compared Jay Powell to Moses, saying Powell won't like the "complacency" of the market.

Weiss said: "By definition... you don't know you're in a recession until you come out of it... Unless you have a big event like 2008 or 2000, it just blows you away."

Joe Terranova said that the yield curve inversion "is not a good place to be."

Ron Insana said at Power Lunch on Friday that 7% would "definitely put us in a recession."

The judge basically knocked out one from the park (a/k/a Steve please tell us if we are in a recession or not)

Shortly after the half-time report on Thursday (11/17), the judge started bringing up what was obviously the topic of the day, eventually leading Steve Liesman to the laundromat.

In a question to Bryn Talkington, the judge wondered: "Maybe Bryn is as simple as Bullard & Company, they just don't want the stock to go up. They don't want the market to go down, but they just don't want to." I don't want the stock to go up. They are trying to squash demand, not increase it by increasing the wealth effect. Maybe it's as simple as that."

In fact. Why the hell would they be asked to go around giving speeches about their latest hourly opinions on government statistics? (Or is that also part of the "mandate"?)

The judge asked Josh Brown the same question, then turned to Steve Liesman and said, "Maybe the question is too simple. The Federal Reserve just doesn't want the stock market to go up right now."

"I don't think that's right, Scott. I think the Fed wants the economy to cool down and it's not," Liesman said, of course.

Steve noted that Jim Lebenthal and Josh Brown criticized James Bullard for his 7% comment. "I don't think what Bullard said is reckless," Steve said... of course... adding that housing and autos "are both going strong."

"Which is exactly what I mean," said the judge. "Why can't they just let the stock market go higher, because that just increases the wealth effect and doesn't affect demand like it should?"

Which led to this howl: "Again, Scott, I just don't think the stock market is his focus," Steve said.

The judge told Steve that Bullard's mention of 7% seems "reckless" because it makes the Fed seem "clueless." Steve's response was, "You've got Jeremy Siegel, who wants to, basically wants the Fed to use, um, as they call it, 10 times odds behind the target line in the data table."

"I don't know, man, I mean if you want to - if your goal is a massive recession then, OK, go for 7%," the judge replied - and actually, that's the point the judge was at very cool. 🇧🇷

The judge finally asked Steve, "What if whatever they're doing doesn't work?"

"They will do more until that happens," Steve said.

And NOW we are getting somewhere...we have this organization that has been given a funny "mandate", which in the case of 2022 is basically "People are worried about fuel prices, do something about it" , and is self-programmed to push buttons and levers to comply with that "command", although those buttons and levers, despite what Larry Summers says, may not have much effect on that "command" and can only serve to stop other things that have little or nothing to do. do with this "command".

On the other hand, if the judge thinks going up to 7% means a "massive recession," you might want to tone it down a bit. seems to have a big impact on stock prices.

It seems that, although the judge did not ask him directly, unfortunately, Steve would not agree with Carl Icahn (see below) that we are "already" in a recession.

And they didn't ask Steve, "If the economy is doing so well,Why is this supposed inflation considered such a big problem? (And the answer had better be something other than "it's a command.")

The judge told Steve that the market is fed up with speeches. “They're calling, you know what? about Bullard's comments," the judge said.

Jim Lebenthal said he considered Bullard's comments "reckless."

"Inflation is clearly coming down," Jim said. "The chances of a soft landing are increasing."

Josh Brown agreed with Jim that Bullard's comments are "a bit of an exaggeration," adding that Bullard "should probably be doing his job interviews at private equity firms right now, and not saying things like that."

Brown said the market views 2023 "as a recession year."

Bryn Talkington said: "We definitely have a positive threshold. But remember, the Fed really has no idea what's going to happen to inflation... The Fed can't print human beings. The job market is still tight. And secondly, they can't print oil."

The non-inflationary recession (continued)

Wednesday's (11/16) halftime report was certainly sleepy, including the moment Joe Terranova must have said "the analyst community" some 14 times during a semifinal discussion.

A small comment caught our attention. In the 15th minute of the show, Kari Firestone declared: "This is the fight between inflation and profits. Over time, stocks follow profits. We know that. But last year, what really matters is inflation." .

It made us think of the "R" word. For example, what would happen if they released large amounts of inflation... and the recession didn't come?

You see, Carl Icahn on Thursday (see below) told the judge that we are "already" in a recession... and the judge hasn't asked anyone since that comment whether they think Carl is right or wrong.

Let's keep waiting... for someone to give their opinion.

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova said Wednesday that he doesn't know there is "universal contagion" in retail, though he told the judge he doesn't want to get involved with clothing retailers.

"Retail really does very well, consistently, in November," Liz Young said.

In the 20th minute, Jim Lebenthal mentioned the "supply chain on land".

fast money evaluation (10)

The judge never asked Steve, 'What problem is the Federal Reserve really solving?'

Eyes around CNBCfix HQ lit up on Tuesday (11/15) when we noticed that Steve Liesman was back on the Halftime Report, presumably to tell us how the market is misinferring the Fed and also providing an update. about the mission of the Federal Reserve.

lower prices for everyone

prevent Americans from spending record amounts in casinos.

The judge asked Steve if the Federal Reserve can be influenced by the S&P, possibly up to 4100. Steve responded, "I think there's always a bit of narcissism involved in a question like that, Scott, I mean, do you think the Fed Federal thinks more of you than they do... I don't mean you, of course-"

But the judge insisted that Fed members "continue to talk about the need to tighten financial conditions."

"They do," Steve admitted. "I think if the market goes higher because of the perception that inflation is cooling and the Fed might need to do less, I don't think the Fed would have a problem with that. I think having a problem with (it's hard to tell if it was left one word out) it was in the summer, when the Fed still had some 75 in their pockets, and the market took off, so this wasn't narcissism, I guess it was appropriate paranoia at the time."

Oh. So now we're getting somewhere. They felt they would have to lose "a few 75" (reversing in less than a year) and were upset that the market didn't seem as impressed.

And how exactly does Jay Powell describe this economy that he is saving, an economy thatin 2022had a "high consumer demand" that is bringing "record success" to...

home sellers Fuel station grocery stores

... casinos.

Steve also intervened in free market economics.

"One of the ways to beat inflation here is to cut margins," Steve said.

The judge demanded to know if the companies are really going to lower prices. Steve stated, "In a competitive market...there shouldn't be a higher than normal rate of return." Steve went on to explain that if socks (yes, socks, not stocks) are selling for $5 and someone can make a profit selling socks for $4, "Yes, prices need to come down."

Stephanie Link, in keeping with the CNBC tradition of always assuming demand for earthmoving equipment is unstoppable (except when it's China's fault), insisted that "Caterpillar won't be cutting prices anytime soon."

No matter what the interest rates are, every financial transaction, whether it's a Big Mac or a 737 Max, is a transaction. And just because a company is the only one making a particular product doesn't mean that all of its potential buyers are willing to pay the asking price.

Caterpillar will not reduce prices if demand for earthmoving equipment increases.

If part of that demand decides "we already have enough earthmoving equipment", these prices will not increase.

Meanwhile, the judge reported that Jeremy Siegel is saying, "I think this moves the pivot." Steve Liesman admitted that he "does" put the Fed on the clock toward the pivot (which will pave the way for more people to visit the casinos).

Steve said of the 25bp rise in January: "This quarter could be the last before the break." (Because that 25 gauge is going to be really significant in "breaking the backbone" of inflation in the long run.)

Almost went through a show without mentioning Powell (but for Weiss)

The judge on Monday's (11/14) halftime report began trading immediately.

But he didn't say anything about the elephant he essentially invited into the room last week with Carl Icahn, if we really are in a recession.

Midway through Monday's show, Amy Raskin said: "I don't think we're going to go into a particularly deep recession if we go into a recession in the next 6 months, which, yo-yo-yo (sic) I still don't think it's He... is my base case."

"The market is a bit windy here," Raskin said.

We were unable to determine from your comments whether or not Raskin's base case is a recession in 6 months.

But we were able to determine that the judge did not ask any questions about that comment.

Which makes sense, because last week (see below), the judge heard Carl proclaim that we are "already" in a recession and met with zero resistance, including how recession- and/or inflation-ravaged Americans are spending casino record.

Weiss said throughout 2022 that the people who are not on CNBC or watching CNBC are the ones who are feeling the messy economy; he didn't explain how casinos are breaking records

About the only person who was clear and concise in Monday's (11/14) halftime report was Jason Snipe, who told the judge, "I think in the short term, we could see a recovery."

That was basically the view not only of the Morgan Stanley guy the judge quoted again, but also of Steve Weiss, who said, "At this point, everybody's looking at 50 basis points." And Weiss said if that's true, Jay Powell would have to be "more aggressive than in the past to derail the rally."

The judge didn't bother to ask Weiss, who somehow knew from last year how bad it is, especially for the kind of people who aren't CNBC guests, whether 1) we're in a recession or 2) will it be in a recession or 3) How could either of these scenarios play out with Americans pumping record amounts into casinos (not casino stock but slot machines)?

In an opening statement, Joe Terranova wavered as L'eggo my egg'o, questioning: "have liquidity conditions (sic) improved?" He doesn't think the answer "internally" in stocks is "yes," so he's looking for "trusted" places in the market. So Joe recommended sticking with "defense oriented sectors."

Joe added: "You've seen a break in the sale of tax losses." (We think all of this means Joe sees potential for some sectors to recover or continue to recover, namely defensives.)

The judge said the Morgan Stanley guy says the "top end" of whatever his most recent range is (this range is key; it's always wide enough to drive a Rivian truck) "will be hit" and could even go up. more if income decline.

Judge and Weiss got involved when Weiss insisted there was still "volatility" in the market.

"No, no, no," Judge said, explaining that the "extreme volatility" in bonds (as well as stocks) "has certainly cooled off."

But Weiss insisted: "The market is showing extreme volatility today," insisting for the second time that markets can be volatile both up and down, and that's what "scares people."

The judge pointed to other sectors that have recently outperformed technology and asked Weiss if the dollars invested would go back into technology. Weiss called it a "phenomenal question" that he tackles "pretty much every day" and admits "I really don't know the answer" and says you have to be "careful" with technology.

Weiss struggled to answer how long he'll stay with GOOGL (or maybe it's GOOG) and finally said "it's not clear."

One of the judge's guests on Monday was Bobby Turner, who practices "impact investing" which aims to address social issues in communities through real estate investments. The judge said it is "fair to say" that there is a "backlash" against ESG or "impact" investing that some people call "awake investing." Turner said he tries to "ignore it" and "disprove it with proof and evidence."

fast money evaluation (11)

If only American casinos had theirbest quarter could inflation be devastating our economy?

This week there was a very interesting article in the Associated Press that somehow escaped Scott Wapner's attention.

The article - publishedon the AP website on Wednesday- Said this:

"Numbers released Wednesday show the US commercial casino industry had the best quarter in its history, winning over $15 billion from players in the third quarter of this year."

We wonder if the judge would mention this information on any of his shows.

On Thursday (11/10) during closing bell overtime, Carl Icahn spoke to the judge and proclaimed, "I think he's got a recession already."

Now this is interesting...

We are already in a recession.

And people are spending record amounts in casinos.

Let's be like Tom Cruise in "A Few Good Men" and ask Judge and Carl (and Steve Liesman) a question:

Can you explain this???

like Mr. Cruise in that movie, we'll give you the answer:There was no transfer order.1) Neither Carl, nor Judge, nor Steve know if we are in a recession, 2) Neither Carl, nor Judge, nor Steve can explain what is being done by raising rates by 75 points every two months, and 3) Neither Carl, neither Judge nor Steve can pinpoint the problem these 75 bp increases are supposed to solve.

Ron Insana: Many bitcoin supporters 'failed miserably in other endeavors'

CNBC's extensive coverage of the crypto crisis took an interesting twist onPowerful Friday Lunch (11/11),when former presenter/current pundit Ron Insana intervened.

Insana bluntly told Tyler Mathisen: "This is all nonsense. It doesn't exist there. These are fake tokens. This is fake currency. This is not real money. It's not backed by anything."

In what was an interesting question that CNBC hosts usually never delve into because they're obsessed with "reversal," Tyler asked Insana to explain how Bitcoin is "different in quality" from the dollar. Insana did not fully answer the question, but said that the dollar is backed by a $20 trillion economy and that you can put dollars in "interest-bearing bonds" and that the dollars have the "full faith and credit" of the government and "the Reserve Federal". behind the dollar" and the dollar accounts for 65% of world trade.

Morgan Brennan said he would back down from Insana, stating that Michael Saylor, Mike Novogratz and others believe in bitcoin, so "there will be a market for it and the supply is limited."

Ron said, "Many bitcoin supporters have failed miserably in other endeavors," and advised Brennan to read up on Saylor's background. Morgan said, "Yes."

fast money evaluation (12)

'I'm not reading Tom Lee'

Somehow... even though it's November already... Gap Report panelists keep saying the same thingsthey've been saying all year.

On Friday (11/11), Steve Weiss stated "My view hasn't changed" although he has made some purchases because he sees stock in a "seasonal window".

"That's not what he wanted to see," Weiss said of Jay Powell.

Jenny Harrington, whose advice for the next few years is to avoid high physical education. technology stocks, but hold the overall market in difficult times, she said we are not in a "bull market" or "bear market", but in a "bottom run".

“Well, we've been in a bear market, I mean, come on, what do you mean we're not in a bear market?” Judge began to ask.

"We're not down more than 26%. In fact, we're not down more than 20%," Jenny said, explaining that "you get into nuances and gray areas."

So Juiz and Jenny got involved… it went something like this… going to 4,800 or not going to 4,800 is the benchmark for this market. The judge basically wondered why Jenny sold AMAT.

Jim Lebenthal, echoing his views from earlier this year, said "yesterday was very important," adding: "This is a very strong economy."

"Gas prices are back up," Weiss said, adding: "You're still at ridiculously high levels of inflation." (Yeah. So all that money goes to gas, groceries... and slots, apparently.)

The judge repeated Carl Icahn's pessimistic comments from the previous day; Jenny said "we really need to put parameters on comments like that".

Weiss stated that a "normalized multiple" is 14-15. "No, it's not," Jim said, suggesting that Weiss "read Tom Lee's book..."

"I'm not reading Tom Lee, who is a perennial bull," Weiss said. (Of course, but he'll be reading Carl Icahn, who is a perennial bear.)

Jenny accused Weiss of saying a few months ago that she was using "fuzzy math."

"I never said fuzzy math," Weiss said.

Jenny insisted that it was, but really, "it's all fuzzy math."

Jim said, "Here are the facts," throughout the 1990s the multiple was 19 forwards, while the 10-year multiple averaged around 5%.

Does anyone have an alternative aggregate price index? (a/k/a 'Many people don't want to work')

Fireworks went off in the stock market on Thursday (10/11), but not so much in the Judges' Break Bulletin.

Steve Liesman again tried to crash the party, saying that Loretta Mester "isn't necessarily that optimistic" about the excitement of CPI day.

The judge told Steve that Jeremy Siegel just said that inflation is "basically over." Steve said, "I'm a big fan of Professor Siegel," but if Jeremy has an "alternative aggregate price index that he'd like to share," then "a lot of other people would follow."

But, Steve said, the CPI and PCE are "among the best we've got."

Steve concluded that the "operative phrase" for the Fed remains that the risk of doing too little outweighs the risk of doing too much.

For his part, prior to Liesman's appearance, Siegel had taken a victorious turn by stating that "inflation is much lower than the Fed thinks" and that the "real" index of home prices and rents shows a " core negative inflation.

Siegel said the pivot should have been "yesterday" and that inflation was "basically over."

Josh Brown opined that inflation "is still exaggerated."

Evidently trying to sound optimistic and bearish at the same time, Rob Sechan gave mixed signals about stocks being long, suggesting taking "advantage" of this move, but noted the appreciation and said: "Stocks have become infinitely more attractive since the price point of view."

The judge said he could "translate" Rob's comments as investors should "sell" him. Rob said he does, but he's not sure they should be selling "at that level right now."

Meanwhile, the judge said that Dan Ives struck TSLA off his "best ideas list" and that Ives called the TWTR deal "albatross." In overtime, the judge spoke to Ives and bluntly stated that taking stock of the "best ideas list" but reiterating superior performance "seems a bit boring." Ives said: "Our concern is the short term."

Addressing a recent deal Judge tried to make a big deal at the time, Josh Brown said he sold META "a couple of days ago," buying it for "about $99" the day it collapsed, calling it a "small trade, not really. it means a lot".

Brown praised BROS again, saying it would be "much louder" in a "normal market environment."

The judge promised Carl Icahn in overtime. In fact, Carl kicked off the show by stating that he's "pretty pessimistic about what's going to happen (last 6 words are redundant)", explaining that we're "already" in a recession, and citing wage pressure; "A lot of people don't want to work, (laughs), it's just about that." The judge had to speed things up when Carl began to ramble frankly about his favorite energy reserves.

fast money evaluation (13)

Jim Says Bitcoin "Shouldn't Have Been 6,800"

In a show with Sam Bankman-Fried walking across a parking lot and opening a door, Wednesday's (9/11) Halftime Report caught fire on the crypto issue long before we get to Santoli's Midday Word.

Joe Terranova told the judge that if Bitcoin keeps falling, "the technology will fall."

Jim Lebenthal said, "I just don't think so," arguing that encryption "doesn't have that big of an effect."

Joe insisted that it "changed market sentiment." The judge sided with Joe, stating that we don't know the "full consequences" yet.

Later on the show, Joe said he's "not sure" that leverage in the crypto world is in a "precarious position." But he reiterated that sentiment will have an impact on the market.

"Why is there no regulation in the cryptocurrency market?" Joe said, though he said it like there was a period after each word.

Jim Lebenthal said that what Joe was saying "really pisses him off".

"I can go to the alley and play dice," Jim explained. "I can do this. Okay. Anyone can do this. If there was ever a market where caveat emptor was applied, this was it. I mean, this was all about greed. It was about greed. There was no way to evaluate this." those things". ... You can easily tell me the utility of blockchain-"

"Why are you mad at me?" Jo asked. "We're saying the same thing."

"But how is the human emotion of greed regulated," Jim said.

"Take away the human emotion!" Jo said.

"Bitcoin should never have been 68,000. It shouldn't have been 6,800. There's no way to measure that," Jim concluded.

fast money evaluation (14)

Judge Overpromised and Underdelivered on JPMorgan Data Assets and Alpha Group CPI Forecasts

As elections and the CPI loom over stocks this week, Joe Terranova opened the break on Wednesday (Sept. 11) by saying, "I can't wait for 2022 to end."

Liz Young opined: "The rally we've seen so far hasn't made much sense."

Liz predicted "a big flush before we're done with this bear market."

"There's so much doom and gloom out there," Brian Belski sighed. But, "If this gets hot tomorrow, watch out."

As the judge warned about the CPI, Jim Lebenthal questioned the reaction to a "softer" report. Joe said that the panel is "making this more complicated than it needs to be", that the 2 years will tell us "where the market is going".

The judge brought in Bill Baruch to discuss JPMorgan's important CPI note and explain what the Cleveland Federal Reserve's forecast looks like.

Speaking of WYNN, Contessa Brewer said she hopes to see "Las Vegas and Boston subsidizing Macao."

Liz Young correctly pointed out that all of the CPI reports this year were "The Most Important Report".

Joe accuses Kari of saying Joe said 3200, after the judge made it clear that UBS said 3200

Monday's (11/7) halftime report was muddled from the start, when Joe Terranova couldn't comment, asked for a sip of water and mentioned "grill," and never unraveled, likely leading viewers to think about Santoli's noon word. he couldn't come fast enough.

Joe eventually argued that the market will go where the megacaps go, before Steve Weiss stated that Barry Diller agrees with all his views on the market and Victoria Greene agreed with what the judge said was the 3200 call from usbs.

Kari Firestone said she didn't want to sound like "the optimistic person on the panel", but everyone else is "heavy" (prompting Joe to shake his head) and "too negative". Kari hinted that META may be just around the corner. Kari also referred to "Brad Geistner (sic)".

Weiss called the META a "value trap".

When Joe got another chance, he said, "I never said the market would go to 3200, I don't know where Kari got that from."

"I heard Victoria and Scott say that," Kari said correctly.

The judge asked Weiss why the VIX is below 25. Weiss said that the VIX has not been a "reliable indicator of the markets" for some time.

Weiss says he's late for the moment on NFLX (a/k/a Ed Yardeni says some Fed members have had enough)

In the halftime report on Friday (11/4), Steve Weiss said that Jay Powell is like Moses: "He wants to see 3200."

"The market is taking a cue from the bond market," Weiss said, adding that stocks were still coming out of a "sugar high."

Bryn Talkington was quite blunt and said "let's be clear" about the central bank; "The Fed has no idea what inflation will be in the next 6 to 12 months."

Bryn explained that the Federal Reserve can't "create humans" and "can't print oil," so the job market will continue to be "incredibly tight."

Talkington said we'll see "the 2 years will be well above 5%."

The judge stated that Jackson Hole was "8 minutes of hawks that changed the whole paradigm."

Dubravko Lakos, the main invitee, was rather dovish, explaining that buybacks could help in the short term, but he didn't express much enthusiasm about 2023 or even his own $225 earnings forecast.

Dubravko said if you believe in the soft landing, next year's multiple could be 16-17, but if not, maybe 14-15.

The judge kept saying "for himself", one of his favorite expressions

(like Joe with Palo Alto or LPX).

Meanwhile, the judge questioned Jason Snipe on TWLO; Snipe admitted to the mess but said he only has a "very small position." But he likes PYPL, as does Bryn Talkington, who said "the quarter was great" and marked a "turning point."

Regarding COIN, which most people have given up on, Bryn said "you can really buy this name right here" around '60 and sell the Jan '75 calls (as if anyone was actually buying these Jan '75 calls). '75).

Shannon Saccocia praised TW. Regarding the NFLX, Steve Weiss said that this will be his "anti-Kyrie moment" where he is "smart and remorseful." He admitted to a "mistake" on NFLX and said that he was a sheep instead of a shepherd and that he was brought to the "sacrifice" because the "impulse already happened."

At the end of the show, the judge had an amazing time reaching out to Shannon and Jason to get a call from them on the DIS.

The judge promised Ed Yardeni saying that the bottom is in the extension. It took until 33 minutes of extra time to hear Yardeni's call; The judge stated that a background call is "pretty brave" this week. Yardeni said he originally thought the June low would continue but switched to predicting 75bps in December, shrugging as the market "priced in" that number and then a "pause" after Powell's "hawkish spike" comes under pressure. from other members of the Fed.

fast money evaluation (15)

Doc thinks Powell's bark is worse than his bite

Many people have been wondering, ever since the Najarians disappeared from CNBC, how to find Doc's daily option calls (in some ways different from the literally endless amount of marketing teasers he posts on Twitter).

Turns out he's been taking the podium from time to timePrograma Fox Business de Charles Payne.Rather than point out unusual activity, Najarian has so far been providing advice on general options and some broader options and market calls.

On Wednesday (11/2), Najarian hinted that this is how Jay Powell operates: "I think he's going to talk tough, frankly, because he'd rather talk tough than act tough, Charles."

"And by the way, the jaw worked," said Charles, but "it worked very well."

Najarian also warned against trading in the very short term. "Those 1 day options, the speed of the time decline there, Charles, it's so cool that I think the odds are really against you."

Charles has yet to ask Najarian what he thinks about Brad Gerstner's open letter to META management.

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Praise for Jay

The halftime report on Thursday (11/3) was conducted by Frank Holland, as the judge was returning from Denver.

In the Low Bar category, Jim Lebenthal said he would "praise" Jay Powell for "having his cake and eating it too," suggesting they go higher than the market expects, but offering "sort of a wink and nod." "which can slow down the rides.

Jim said Powell "linked" the Fed to the CPI, but Powell gave himself "leeway."

Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter said Jay Powell was trying to "reinforce" an earlier message, but the "subtle" part indicated it would "take some time."

Meanwhile, Josh Brown predicted "tax loss sales" in November and December.

Brown took aim at what he called the "Ouroboros" argument, noting that stocks don't go down and then people sell; instead, stocks fall because people sell.

Jim said it was a "top-notch" reference, "like a Police song".

Jim did another case for QCOM and Josh did another case for LNG.

Josh Brown predicted a "decent reception" and "a lot of uptake" for NFLX's ad-supported option, saying that "most people" are happy to save a few bucks in exchange for ads. Jim, who has long defended PARA, said: "The whole industry sucks this year."

Kari Firestone said she doesn't need anything "heroic" from the PYPL report.

Josh Brown mentioned his Thanksgiving fundraiser that his daughter now oversees.

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Sully makes a joke

Brian Sullivan, CNBC's funniest host, who is doing extensive work in place of Kelly Evans, on Thursday's (11/3) edition of The Exchange knocked one out of the park while pulling out some merchandise.

"I used to change the fertilizers at a previous job before TV, although some people say I still use fertilizer," Sully said.

Not sure why Jay Powell wasn't asked about Brad Gerstner's open letter to META

The Fed's pre-break report on Wednesday (11/3) was as tedious as all CNBC's pre-Fed shows, as panelists guessed exactly what the Fed would announce in a few hours.

Only this time, everyone on the show also said the same things that they say.every time they're on the show,extending to Jeffrey Gundlach's overtime interview.

The loudest comment came at halftime after the judge, who is in Denver for some reason for a Schwab conference (presumably because Schwab sponsors stuff on CNBC), said Jay Powell doesn't want to "crash" the economy. .

Steve Liesman responded, "He doesn't want to hit Scott, but I think he does, and I think that's probably worth thinking about."

Steve once again warned viewers that the Fed may indicate they don't need to keep doing 75, but "don't mistake this Scott for a Powell sentiment that they've stopped raising rates."

The judge said some people are thinking we'll get a "wink and a nod" from the Fed on post-October moves.

But "the data is not there" to do anything other than what the Fed is doing, Jim Lebenthal said.

In other matters, the judge reviewed so many Joe Terranova transactions (personal and JOET), that we quickly lost count.

Jim said it's no longer a question of whether Boeing will turn around; "They turned it around."

The judge cut Stephanie Link because he claimed there was a problem with Stephanie's audio, but when they came back to Stephanie with the "fixed" audio, it didn't sound much different.

The judge asked Jim again about the PARA. Jim admitted, "This action makes me look like shit." Joe was allowed to give a speech during his Final Trade.

Jeffrey Gundlach said the CPI top for the year will "slow down", ending the year around 7% and probably "below 4½" in the May reading.

Gundlach, who said the Fed has "caught up" in an "admirable way," made a "conditional forecast" that if the CPI falls to 2% by the end of next year, "I think it will turn negative."

A day without anyone mentioning Brad Gerstner's open letter to META

Tuesday's (1/1) halftime report was sleepy, which was great because we're busy with the Robert Pisani book right now.

Sun Chu took the reins, as the referee was not present at either half-time or overtime.

The main guest, the Morgan Stanley guy, said the Fed is "closer to the end than the beginning" but whether the recovery continues depends on the outcome of this week's meeting.

Of course, much of the talk was about the Federal Reserve. "They still need to walk until the end of the year and not necessarily stop after that," Liz Young said.

"It's a foregone conclusion. They need it," Dom Chu added.

Josh Brown said that rather than trying to predict if the market goes up or down, "cutting and chopping" has been the "best bet" for the markets this year.

Liz Young said, "As inflation goes down, it will go down faster on goods than on services."

Bryn Talkington said energy is cheap and "does very well" in an inflationary environment.

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"These platitudes are true because they are always true" (a/k/a This Phillies-World-Series-Coinciding-With-Bear-Markets story is getting old way too fast)

Monday rest report (10/31)

It would have been much more interesting to simply discuss the latest cryptographic efforts by the Najarians.

was little more than a repetition ofthe same comment these panelists have been making for an entire year.

(Maybe that's why the referee jumped and appeared in extra time).

Jenny Harrington, who basically always says hold the market but not buy multiple high-tech stocks, did some talking (not uncommon) and was stunned in green when she once again led the league in hair, saying, "We're reconciling 10 years of excessive returns... I see all of this as an extremely healthy process that the market is going through." But Grandpa Steve Weiss warned about the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. (Which means Tepper must still be talking about it at dinner parties.)

Jenny said, "This is nothing like '08-'09" and suggested that those old saws, like Buy It When There's Blood On The Streets, will work (see headline).

The program had its flaws. Moments after Joe Terranova made a mistake on "trust but verify" in his opening line, guest host Frank Holland mistakenly cut Jason Snipe off when Frank thought no one could hear Snipe, except that viewers could hear Snipe just fine. .

Josh gets META (a/k/a 'New Home' is a good way to get your message read on TV

In Thursday's (10/27) halftime report, in which the judge popped his glasses, Josh Brown said he bought the META at "8 o'clock this morning" even though "it's not that significant of a position." .

Brown pointed to what the NFLX has done in recent months and suggested that META could do the same kind of listening to "outside voices" and throw a "riot."

Jenny Harrington said she started her 2016 META standing at 116 and "trimmed" around 260 and 230. (Which doesn't exactly help anyone make a trade.) Jenny said the shares are "very cheap" and "almost worth it." ."

Jenny suggested that managing META is like cute, athletic, smart friends "but they keep dating losers."

Joe Terranova said "There's something called mental capital" (laughs) and questioned why anyone needs to buy META and obsess over it. Jenny said that maybe Joe is right, but "it's not that hard to fix" and why doesn't the board just say "Enough".

The judge suggested that Brown would not wait long enough in the META to see 150. Brown agreed with the judge and Joe and said that the stock is "tied."

Amy Raskin said Brown's purchase of META is "probably" a good deal.

Meanwhile, Joe said investors have been "intoxicated" by megacap premiums "for far too long."

Josh said he's not sure Andy Jassy has figured out "how to communicate effectively, being a good mentor."

The judge said that NOW received an update from MoffettNathanson. Josh correctly questioned Moffett's notion that mega-cap investors have a "new home."

Brown said there is a "recession" in technology, but "it's not everywhere in technology."

Speaking of Intel and the semifinals, Jenny suggested that "maybe these stock prices have already bottomed out."

During Final Trades, Josh Brown pointed out that they never talked about the Federal Reserve.

Josh Brown: We will have a 'lame president'

The judge's 3 person panel, everyone at the table plus Brian Belski in recess on Tuesday (10/25) was a very effective alternative to having 7 people connecting remotely.

Brian Belski's speech

the same things you always do

that public services are "the most expensive asset in the world" and that "we would be short of public services in the next 3 to 5 years."

Jim Lebenthal said of the CLF: "It's not designed to beat the market for years to come."

Jim stated that infrastructure spending "will continue for the rest of this decade."

Josh Brown responded, "You'll have an idiot president, no more bills, uh, after the next ones, uh, 2 weeks from now," so there really will be a "hiring renaissance."

"I don't think he needs more, more legislation," Jim said.

Mike Mayo, who hardly ever says anything other than bank stocks are okay, brought a baseball glove on set. He said it "symbolizes" that Banks is "ready for the World Series." The umpire took the gauntlet as an opportunity to shoot the New York Yankees.

Mayo said this will be the "best recession for banks" in "the last half century."

Josh Brown doesn't seem to think that banks are doing anything special other than experiencing the effects, good and bad, of the economy/rates.

Scott Nations suggested buying the November 157.50 AAPL call and selling the 165 strike call.

Josh mentions 'scarecrow' again in a conversation with Jim

Sometimes a CNBC debate makes you wonder, "Could both people be right?"

That was the case in Tuesday's (10/25) halftime report, when Jim Lebenthal and Josh Brown discussed the importance of AMZN's multiple, which Brown said is "the absolute worst metric" for valuing stocks.

"Sorry, you and I already had this discussion," Jim said.

"I've always been right about that," insisted Brown, explaining that AMZN has fallen this year simply because all stocks and bonds have fallen.

“This whole year has been about valuation issues, whether it's Amazon or the stock market,” Jim said.

"Again, scarecrow, I'm not saying value doesn't matter, I'm saying that's not the core of why stocks went up or down, ever," Brown said.

Hmmmmm... Well, we agree with Brown, although he didn't say so on Tuesday, that P.E. The relationship is not a predictor of where an action is headed.

But at some point, the evaluationdevoit matters, doesn't it?

Here's how it matters (based on decades of watching people talk about it on CNBC):

The stocks with the highest multiples tend to be younger companies that are expected to hold a lot.

If those recipes don't work, those stocks, and their multiples, are likely to take a big hit.

Those that do work, like Tesla, Amazon, Netflix, can make big bucks for shareholders.

But if you think a lower multiple protects a shareholder from a big drop in the stock, take a look at the long-term charts that show what names like X can do FOR you and FOR you.

When Jim says the "full year" is all about "assessment matters," he's just saying it's been a risk-free year for all in a tougher economic climate.

To say that the AMZN multiple is perhaps "too rich" is simply to say that its near-term future will not be as good as the market anticipates.

That is a good opinion to have.

It seems that rather than it being a multi-pronged debate, Brown and Lebenthal simply have different opinions on how good the next 6-12 months will be for AMZN.

As Josh, Jim, Stephanie Link and even the judge talked among themselves, Jim concluded, "We are in a transition from growth to value."

Brad Gerstner made a bad trade

Needing a headline for Monday's (10/24) halftime report, the judge seized on Brad Gerstner's "open letter" to META management.

Kevin O'Leary, who claimed he used to spend "lots of hours" talking to Sheryl Sandberg, sold META. O'Leary said that everyone knows the metaverse idea is "good out there," but he's selling the stock because he's starting to see "activists reaching out" and pushing "from all angles," so with that kind of "pressure" on stocks, he discharged, taking a "big hit."

The judge transmitted Gerstner's letter and the "three-step plan" (laughs) successfully. Steve Weiss said that Gerstner has good ideas, but they won't "take root" in the META.

Brenda Vingiello said she's not ready to sell META yet and the company can still "change the narrative."

Joe Terranova said he would not buy META, that Gerstner's addition to the board is "exactly" what META needs, that META has "completely lost focus" and that metaverse consumers want games, not a "1499. VR headset." .

Hours later, in overtime, the judge called Gerstner an "influential shareholder" in META. (Is there any evidence of that?) Bryn Talkington, who sold META on Monday, called him "Brad Gershner (sic)."

Elsewhere, at halftime, Kevin O'Leary said, "I need to have broadcast exposure" because it "never goes away" and will be "forever." He then sees 2 options, NFLX and DIS, and chooses DIS.

Steve Weiss told O'Leary that owning the BABA is like owning an "Alligator shell".

Sully at The Exchange interviewed Ken Rogoff

In the 9th minute of the half time report on Friday (10/21), the referee connected with Steve Liesman and asked Steve to "react" to Mary Daly's comments.

As it always does, Steve said that the market is very bullish on what has been said.

"I think they're still looking for that 4.5% range," Steve said.

The judge said it was "no accident" that the WSJ article was published on Friday and that the Fed appears to be "priming investors for a decision in the weeks after the November meeting, as he says, without triggering another rally." sustained".

As the judge continued to suggest that the rate hikes caused liquidity problems, Steve said, "I'm sorry I can't go on air here and say the Fed is going to change because of Daly's comments."

Steve asked the judge if the judge interviewed Rogoff this week on CNBC when Rogoff "said 5%." The judge had to admit that it wasn't him.

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova stated

will buy or sell the QQQ

, "We are completely hostage to where Treasury revenue goes."

Joe said, "I've spoken in the last 2 days with several taxable fixed income money managers who are telling me that there are liquidity concerns in the Treasury market and the high yield market. It's real. It's in the wake of events, uh, in the UK."

So the judge seriously suggested, "I'm thinking, well, maybe the Federal Reserve is also a hostage."

The judge linked the day's rally to comments by Mary Daly about being at or near a neutral rate and the possibility of "minor increments" of increases. Kari Firestone said these kinds of market rallies based on optimism about the Fed's moves were "wishful thinking."

The judge said that UAA had a "crazy decline" this year and is "under $7." Joe called the action "the ultimate trap."

Joe agreed with one analyst that META is the "ultimate value trap." Joe said management "literally" is "void of any clear direction" and "they should go back to Facebook."

Kari Firestone made a distinction between Robinhood and Charles Schwab.

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Judge says he saw Jeremy Siegel on the NYSE floor and summoned him to Post 9

Thursday's unmissable edition of the Halftime Report kicked off with Steve Liesman delivering the latest aggressive comments from the Federal Reserve. (Translation: everyone is going to be aggressive until something they're doing actually works.)

Jim Lebenthal noted that when it comes to the recession outlook, we're hearing from companies that "frankly aren't letting workers go."

Shannon Saccocia agreed: "They're not laying people off."

The judge said that David Einhorn, citing that nothing is happening on fiscal policy while the Fed cuts stocks, is "pushing stocks" and "bullish on inflation." Jim Lebenthal said he wanted details on Einhorn's "fiscal policy" complaint.

"I think he's obviously referring to overspending on the fiscal side. I think it's fair to assume that," Judge said.

Jim insisted to Judge that he wouldn't get "thrilled" with restaurant stocks.

In overtime, after a tedious conversation about SNAP, the judge welcomed Jeremy Siegel to the set; Jeremy said that he hasn't been on the NYSE trading floor in 30 years. (See? Complaining about the Federal Reserve on TV, that kind of thing happens.)

The judge asked for a market call but got no more than what Jeremy recently told him. "The market wants to go up and it looks like the Fed wants to keep it down," Jeremy said.

Jeremy repeated that he thinks 75-75 is "too high."

Weiss claims there is no free money "again in our investing lives"

As CNBC continues through its Post-Najarian Era (see below), the judge break report on Wednesday (10/19) went first to Jason Snipe, then Joe Terranova, on NFLX, but it was Josh Brown who he spoke about the actions when he scored moments later.

Jason said "risk/reward works really well here", citing the stock is down 54% this year, while Joe said NFLX still has "another 10 to 20% here potentially", while DIS doesn't have that potential. short term.

The judge asked Joe why he doesn't buy NFLX. “I'd have to sell Disney to do that,” Joe said, claiming he won't make a move 9 days before JOET's “rebalance and reconstitution.”

Josh said that, according to Netflix's report, he "heard enough to keep me interested for the next quarter." So even if he's "still on a leash", it's "house money". (Note: NFLX stock doesn't care what price Brown bought.)

Grandpa Steve Weiss, pointing to Jason Snipe's observation of 54%, insisted: "No matter where it came was free money in an environment we'll never see again in our lifetimes as investors unless disaster strikes."

Joe was asked to weigh in on CRWD; Joe played in PANW, historically one of his favorite names to talk about. He said "bad news has been priced in" for both names and then made a speech that basically said CRWD has a higher multiple because it has more potential.

The judge questioned why CRWD's 2022 stock price loss is "twice Palo Alto's loss." Joe said that he "will be damned in a moment." The judge said, "You want me to go back a year... Crowd is down 44.5% in a year, Palo is down just 5." Joe said he would "argue" that PANW is the "best stock" for a "more conservative investor," but if you are "focused on growth," CRWD is the place to be.

Joe noted, "Most commodities are on the decline for the year."

The judge actually praised IBM's overtime earnings.

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cleanse najarians from
CNBC collaborators page

Looks like it's official.

Pete and Jon Najarian were not only absent from the CNBC Halftime Report for (essentially) months, but are now absent fromthe CNBC contributor page.(This list is in alphabetical order.)

the najarianstype pagesthey still exist on But those pages no longer include biographies or, in Pete's case, business disclosures, which for Pete were last updated on July 8.

Instead, these pages simply include an oddly limited selection of old music videos. The most recent clip on Pete's page is from 2019. (Um, there's not exactly much daily maintenance of these pages on the CNBC website, or any media company for that matter.) But both Najarians were on CNBC in early July.

CNBC's ability to maintain these pages indefinitely is part of the deal when someone is hired or agrees to appear on CNBC. If ties are later severed, CNBC can still display the person's name on its website, as is the case with Rahel Solomon. Now,WhyCNBC wants to publicize material (no matter how old these clips are) from people who are no longer affiliated with the channel, we don't know, except that these pages may receive traffic from people looking for information about these people.

In addition, the Najarians no longer appear among the biographies of the panelists in theinterval reportmiEasy moneyhome pages on

By television standards, the apparent split between CNBC and Najarian is moving at a glacial pace. On Twitter, we didn't see any announcements, but Jon Najarian's handle strangely still includes "Star Halftime Report" with no mention of CNBC. Pete's handle still says "@CNBC Halftime Report Star."

As this page has reported (see below), Voyager Digital's bankruptcy in July led to an awkward on-air exchange between Halftime Report host Scott Wapner and Jon Najarian, and also prompted CNBC officials to request... . or require... (this page doesn't know which is the more appropriate term) ... certain types of information disclosure. Jon Najarian made at least a few appearances on CNBC in September, once on Worldwide Exchange with Frank Holland and once on Halftime Report hosted by Dom Chu. Pete Najarian, as far as we know, hasn't shown up since July.

The disappearance of the Najarians covers up 2 heads of CNBC. Mark Hoffman was still president in July when the hiatus began. Hoffman retired and was succeeded by KC Sullivan (who holds the title of Chairman) on September 12. The assumption here, and it's only an assumption, is that Hoffman left the status of the Najarians undecided for Sullivan to figure out. And maybe that deal is done.

Anyone familiar with business media has to wonder, "Will Najarians join a bunch of other CNBC expats on Fox Biz?" Maybe, but the hunch here is that Fox Biz is far more interested in Hillary Clinton comments than buy-sell analysis.

It seems that this summer and fall, Najarans are simply marketing their own business, Market Rebellion. In recent months, they have posted photos of themselves at events with some members of CNBC.

If this is the end, it's too bad. Jon and Pete, for nearly 15 years, were two of CNBC's most eloquent and informative commentators. This page does not express an opinion on how CNBC or the Najarians handled this situation. This page has at times questioned the Najarians' advocacy of unusual options and activities and crypto firms and the relevance to non-professionals watching these reports on TV, while praising the brothers' ability to provide accurate observations on the markets. financial in general. We would like to think that no bridges were burned here.

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Looking forward to the 'mammoth' week ahead

In the rather dull halftime report on Tuesday (10/18), Jenny Harrington, who tends to be a chatterbox, said that 2 years from now, we'll be calling this year "pretty healthy."

Jenny stated that we have been in a "substantive process since June."

Josh Brown said that no one should have "joy" or "tears" over the stock market.

Jim Lebenthal again tripped the PARA, telling the referee that talking about that action was "playing time". (This page should ask, again, nicely, how a "value" investor like Jim keeps spotlighting a lower-tier name in the streaming space... but whatever.)

In an options report (look, the Najarians are no longer on the show), Scott Nations said "someone has a lot of conviction" that things are bad for LVS.

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Sully says the idea of ​​rebooting 'Road House' is 'offensive'

Monday (10/17) at 5:00 p.m. Fast Money guest host Sully and Guy Adami were talking about a Parsippany restaurant called "The Road House".

Sully said, "By the way, they're redoing it. Jake Gyllenhaal. Can you believe this? Offensive."

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Joe dives into hyperbole when assessing next week's market

We would have thought the ref would open Monday's (10/17) halftime report by talking about Mitch Trubisky's incredible Unitas-style passes on Sunday that deflected Tom Brady and somehow sank the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against a depleted roster of Pittsburgh.

The judge did not mention anything. (Rob Sechan would have, but the judge would not.)

Liz Young said she was "sure" Monday's team would be criticized if they "badmouthed" the rally.

Liz insisted that she doesn't want the stock to fall; instead, she waits for the "cycle to start again."

For that, we need a "remarkable recession," Young said, predicting "continued pain" for "the rest of this year."

Joe Terranova, on the other hand, seemed to think Monday's rally, and any market action for the rest of the week, is just an actual preseason game.

"I don't think you'll get a 10% move this week," but next week is going to be "huge" and "monumental" (laughs), Joe said.

Bryn Talkington suggested that Monday was "great short coverage."

The judge spent a fair amount of time at halftime and in overtime talking about the Morgan Stanley guy's new short-term bullish decision, but even the judge at one point commented that this guy was throwing "Ice and Fire" and "all that other stuff." . (The judge even mentioned the "prism he talks about" (laughs).)

Steve Weiss shrugged, saying this week is a "very light economic calendar" and the S&P is driven by bond yields.

"What's really being traded is the 10-year," Weiss said, saying it won't be "much lower."

Weiss said Jeremy Siegel has been on "a lot" of CNBC shows. "If you believe what Jeremy Siegel says, then we haven't seen the earnings drop in the economy," Weiss explained.

And if Jeremy is right, "they'll see the impact," Weiss said.

The judge showed a graph in which Jonathan Krinsky says 3,400 is "probable" later this month. (Well, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would probably beat Pittsburgh, too.)

For those looking for optimism, Joe said that going back to 1939, the period from mid-November after the midterms to June 30 "in 20 consecutive instances" never produced a "negative return."

Weiss said he would like to buy shares, but "I'm not there yet" and he's not sure Monday's rally is "even sustainable today."

Bryn said he sold small-cap stocks in August and then summarized the big deal he was buying at the end of 2020.

The judge brought Amy Raskin on the phone; Amy owns SPLK in a "relatively small position." She said "there's a lot going on here," though there is "a lot of hair" and it wasn't always "beautiful."

Bryn said RBLX looks like a "COVID name" but has been around "over a decade before COVID."

Bryn said he bought WYNN on September 26 with the expectation of a reopening of Macau "soon". But he had recently traded "terribly," so he sold the January '77 calls against him.

Like 70% of salary to salary, keep asking for 5%...

On Friday's (10/14) halftime report, we actually hear Brian Belski say, "If we see a rally, you might see me come back to this network and tell people to sell."

Moments later, we hear the judge tell Belski, "You said something that confuses me," explaining that Belski had previously advised people to buy and has a target of 4300, but now says he can advise people to sell a rally.

"Here's the mixed message: We feel very comfortable at 4,300. Above 4,300, I think stocks can go higher," Belski explained.

The judge said there are "new upbeat calls" on NFLX "seemingly every week." Shannon Saccocia said the ad plan is the "starting point" Netflix needed. Steve Weiss said that NFLX is "on my shopping list." But he said it's "too early" to declare broadcast winners and losers. Mike Farr said that what he is doing NFLX "makes a lot of sense", but he likes DIS better.

Judge continued what became, for some reason, his daily discussion of the most boring industry in the world (which would be semiconductors). Weiss said names like MU are tempting in single-digit multiples, but those multiples "are not precise." Weiss suggested again: "If China puts up roadblocks in Taiwan..."

Contessa Brewer reported headwinds on the playing space.

Weiss says 70% of people living paycheck to paycheck are getting ahead of Fed policy

Jeremy Siegel, who recently lit up the halftime report with a critique of the Fed's approach that had nods everywhere, returned Thursday (10/13) to virtually repeat those claims.

Siegel said Thursday's housing numbers, which showed a small increase, were "absolutely ridiculous."

"House prices are falling by all measures, not rising," Siegel said.

As for the CPI, "I'm not at all surprised by the number because it's ridiculous. It has nothing to do with the actual rate of inflation," Siegel said.

Steve Liesman claimed that the money supply "gave a very false signal in 2008."

Jeremy disagreed with this, saying that M2 is the important measurement and "raised very little on 2008, 9 and 10". He said Bernanke's QE "just went to the bank's excess reserves. That's not part of M2. We didn't explode the money supply at the time. Not at all. The money supply explosion was in 2020."

Jeremy called the M2 "an accurate indicator of where we are today."

Steve Weiss said the Fed needs to stay ahead of inflation for "the 70% of people in the US who live paycheck to paycheck." And incredibly, with a straight face, if it means erring on the side of caution, "Do it for them."

After a commercial break, Siegel responded, "It sounds like Powell wants to break even on the bottom line. Talk about, you know, we've got to squash pay raises... People are trying to catch up? How can they be the cause of inflation when their wages go up less than inflation it seems he wants to make the job market so bad that no one can ask for a raise and let's just say all these people are unemployed I don't think that speaks for people low income."

Before the judge released Jeremy, Liesman tried to "provide the other side of the story here," saying the Fed would argue that it can only control demand and not supply, "and should create slack in the economy by raising the unemployment rate". . (That's a pretty noble goal. So Big Macs are 50 cents less.)

"The other thing the Fed would say," Steve continued, is that we had "stop-and-go" rate hikes in the 1970s and it "didn't break the backbone of inflation," and the fear is not inflation. but "tomorrow's inflation is consolidating". (Ah. Now back to the popular notion that after all the attention inflation got in the 1970s, it was a guy who raised rates for 4 months in 1982 who solved the problem for the next 40 years.)

Jeremy said that in the 1970s we "never saw" commodities or housing fall, and the money supply "never went down."

The judge played a clip of Marc Lasry on Wednesday expressing skepticism about the Fed and saying "at the end of the day," one of Marc's favorite quotes.

Stocks rose Thursday; Jay will have to start yelling '7%! 7%! 7%! next week

In the Thursday (10/13) halftime report, Steve Liesman told the judge: "Let me just say it's time to start thinking about what Larry Summers was talking about, which is a +5% funds rate.

Judge and Steve discussed Ian Shepherdson's tweet that inflation is falling everywhere but in the data. The judge says that Ian is "not a sloppy guy". But Steve said that Ian was "misguided in his optimism" about him.

"I think Ian Richardson hit him over the head," Jim Lebenthal began, before the judge twice corrected him to "Shepherdson." "Yes. Ian Shepherdson," Jim continued, apparently not realizing that he was wrong the first time.

Jim said Thursday's rally is an example of "you just don't know when the best days in the market are coming" and mentioned the old adage about how if someone somehow owned stocks for 20 years but somehow, unbelievably, if sold 1 day a year coincidentally, on the best day of the year, its performance during those 20 years would be "decreased by approximately 2/3". Which is like saying that if Babe Ruth had hit every pitch in 1927 except the last 60, he would have finished the season without a home run.

The judge insisted on another round of semiconductor stocks (Zzzzzzzzz), one of the most boring topics discussed on the show.

The judge congratulated Kari Firestone for being on Forbes' "50 out of 50" list.

This page recently noted a theory about bottoming out in mid-October (see below)

Steve Weiss, whose goal is to tell the bulls they are wrong, in the breakout report on Thursday (10/13) stated: "To me, this rally is unsustainable" and that the gains must be "reset".

"Don't blow it because you were on the wrong side," Judge Weiss warned.

"I'm not missing out. Look, it's a bear market. Clearly a bear market," Weiss said. "I've been on the right side of trading since January."

Weiss said he won't be "deterred" by a "momentary leap."

The judge said Savita says "there is no bottom in sight." Kari Firestone said, "There's no bottom in sight, I'm not sure when there will be a bottom in sight."

"Clearly there is bad news in this market," Kari said. "This market is oversold."

"I'm siding with Steve Weiss," Josh Brown said, calling the market "still guilty until proven guilty."

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Famous moments in business: Meredith Whitney's call for muni and the bankruptcy of the Harrisburg incinerator

In 2010, on "60 Minutes," Steve Kroft said that Meredith Whitney and her team spent "2 years and thousands of man hours" (that's a long time for customers to pay) studying whether the 15 largest states can return all of the money you borrowed (Spoiler alert: yes, I'm just borrowing more and/or getting money from the US because of COVID.)

Kroft said Whitney was "convinced" that "some cities and counties" would not be able to pay bondholders.

Meredith herself is heard predicting "50 to 100 sizeable defaults."

Obviously, Whitney believed that her comments were misinterpreted, becausein 2013,for example, she "insisted that she never made a 'call' to the munis" and that no one would during the 90 minute "60 Minutes" interviews without knowing what would be shown on television.

Emerging as a rock star analyst who was voted CNBC's Player of the Year by viewers in 2008 and married to a professional wrestler, Whitney began to draw criticism as she made more calls.

Those who thought Whitney might have been right about the munis basically had a bit of evidence to go by:The bankruptcy of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, in 2011,due to a bizarre incinerator-related spending spree in the 1970s.

Sort of like when Geraldo Rivera found the beer bottle on the wall in "The Vaults of Al Capone."

For those who are a little skeptical of the lists, Meredith Whitney in 2008 was ranked No. 35 by Fortune on their list of the 50 Most Powerful Women in Business.

As of 2012, it is no longer on the list.

In 2013, Marissa Mayer was ranked eighth on the list. (Carol Bartz also appeared in the Top 10.)

Number 1 on the 2022 list is Karen Lynch. We're not sure if we've ever heard her name mentioned in the halftime report.

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Weird lighting effect for Joe's hair (a/k/a Joe said 'hard landing' Tuesday in overtime and the referee didn't question anything)

In the halftime report on Wednesday (10/12), two words from Joe Terranova caused a reaction from the judge.

Joe said a "hard landing" is taking place in risk markets. The judge said that the S&P is down 20%; "That's not a hard landing, okay, I mean, that-that-that's kind of a soft landing."

The judge continued: "Don't tell me we're in a 'hard landing' because of the risk now, and then what are you going to tell me when it falls more than that? What's it called?"

"Well, this... this isn't... this isn't a crash landing. Uh, this... this is an accident," Joe said.

Joe said inflation needs to be in the "mid 7's" for a positive market response.

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Jenny Harrington said she was surprised by the market's resilience on Wednesday, and perhaps the market is at a point with the Fed where it "can just live with it."

Courtney Garcia said too much has been discounted and the Fed will have to raise much more to "really scare" the stock market.

The judge brought in Scott Nations, a fine voice from the stock options sphere, to explain some call spreads that "point to a drop in the 10-year yield as low as 2.9% before the November 25 expiration." . The nations said someone is making a "very low cost, very low probability bet that bond prices will rise significantly."

"It's really an equity tail risk trade," Nations said.

Jenny said it sounds like this might not be a "thoughtful" human exchange, but rather an "AI-based decision."

Joe said "frustration" may have been the "catalyst" for Jamie Dimon's recent comments.

CNBC sure was hyping Janet Yellen's interview #exciting

Since CNBC obviously believes there are endless things that can be said about the Federal Reserve, Halftime Report viewers got a little more on Tuesday (10/11) in a show full of jokes.

(Video) Easy Money By Spencer Kennard Review

The judge asked Steve Liesman if, given the amount of Fed comments, we are "setting up a fractured Fed."

Steve said that we are "preparing for a more normal Fed."

Jim Lebenthal said he won't be talking about the most discussed "p" words, including "pivot," but is more interested in another "p" word: "spike." At least as far as inflation is concerned.

Steve Liesman said that Jason Furman "scolded" him last week for pointing out the same thing that Jim just said. “And I think Jason was right,” Steve said, explaining that Jason's point was that you can't “choose” things that go down while ignoring things that go up.

Josh Brown said that the "p" word is "please" (kind of like "puh-leeeeze"), whereas just a year ago these Fed folks were telling us "no rate hikes in 2022."

“They have no idea and zero credibility,” Brown said.

Brown said the Fed has been "sending 12 people every week to scare everyone," which is probably pushing the market to a place where it doesn't need to.

Brown cited a blog post by Cullen Roche saying that we can't talk about "turning around" because the Fed doesn't "have the ball" anymore, which is not a good analogy.

Brown said that if you look at "more high-frequency economic data," it's clear the Fed is "getting what it wants, on every level."

The judge told Steve Liesman that Brown made "some good points," particularly the notion that the Fed loses "control of the game" and perhaps there are "unnecessary rough edges" in the economy. (Obviously, the judge was watching the NFL highlight video over the weekend.)

Steve said he's happy to answer; "Just don't take my explanation of the Federal Reserve as a defense of the Federal Reserve."

Steve said he had "worked a lot" on "how the Fed was wrong." As for the high-frequency data, Steve is "not sure how well some or all of them would work in terms of monetary policymaking," though it is "true" that the Fed was "severely burned" by the transition call and you are "probably wrong" for doing too much.

In fact, Steve said, Charles Evans wondered if people could "imagine" what markets would do if the Fed didn't warn enough about what they're seeing.

But Josh said that "it used to be like that" and all the "playing around" from the Fed is what "created" the 2020-21 environment.

"There's a lot of talk both ways," Brown said.

Steve said there might be a lot of talk, but "I don't think there's a lot of guidance."

'Too close' to the bottom

On Tuesday's (11/10) halftime report, Jim Lebenthal was a bit irritated when the judge reported on QCOM's performance.

Upon pouring it out, the judge later said that the PARA in 6 months fell "50%". (He said "50%" twice). Jim said "this could be better than Netflix" but "it sucks".

Meanwhile, Jim said airline demand is "terrific" and the reason stocks are under pressure is the "constant complaint" over several quarters that we are on the brink of recession. (This writer is long AAL and UAL.) The final trade of him was ALK.

The judge said that Josh Brown loves NFLX. Josh said that "love is a strong word" and that "I'm in it to trade" with a stop loss.

Josh made an eloquent point about carpooling, saying that the "saber creaking" about Uber contractors/employees by the Department of Labor can be "safely ignored."

Brenda Vingiello said we are "extremely close" to bottoming out.

Overtime's Adam Parker predicted a "pretty bad earnings season."

Early October Stock Market: Time to Check Larry Altman's Price

This page and former Halftime Report viewers remember that Larry Altman, who used to dial to discuss the S&P 500 with the judge, made an interesting comment about market seasonality on October 1, 2014.

Altman told the judge that day that markets "generally bottom around the first week and a half, 2 weeks in October or the first week or 2 weeks in March."

We've always kept that concept in mind here, and as the VIX continues to rise while the S&P pushes lower, we wonder if 2022 isn't the perfect setting for this type of outcome.

The "fund" is not an absolute fund and does not "work" every year. In 2021, the short-term bottom occurred at the end of September. In 2019, that didn't really happen. But in 2020, there was a short-term recession in October. In 2018, there was a recession in October that didn't bottom out until December in a V shape. And in 2016, there was a bottom in October.

As for the first weeks of March, we all know what happened in 2009 and 2020.

They say that hope is not a strategy. But this year, frankly, it sucked... and since we're sitting here in mid-October, who knows. Looks like we're late.

When People Get Angry About Gas Prices, Here's What Happens (continued)

Steve Liesman must have said several hundred words about the Federal Reserve in Monday's (10/10) halftime report, but Bryn Talkington was brief.

Bryn said: "The Federal Reserve is really taking a guess."

(Actually, they're not guessing, but trying their best to change an effect, not a cause, basically playing crazy, directing their attention to the headline of the day, or just pulling people off work with very few staff so The Big Mac can be 50 cents cheaper... choose one or all 3...)

joe terranova

he wanted to tell the judge his last position in QQQ

He said he thinks of Adam Parker's overtime comment a few weeks ago, evaluating the policy as such: "In essence, 'Okay, so let's raise rates high enough that we have to lower them.'" Logically, this is inconsistent with trying to find a good solution," Joe explained.

Jason Snipe said we may not have a recession, but we're at the "2-yard line," his best comment in almost forever.

(Jack Lambert, in our humble and admittedly biased opinion, may have been the greatest quarterback of all time.)

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Time plus the wrong policy. The horror...

The judge described Monday's (10/10) halftime report as a discussion of the "central question of what the Fed is doing."

A lot of people on CNBC like to express opinions on this topic.

Steve Liesman, CNBC's top Fed watcher, the show's main guest, reported that Charles Evans said demand is too high "relative to the supply available." (And as Mr. Panos on "Wall Street" told Bud of a similar dynamic, "Thank you for telling me what I already know.")

But Steve said the Fed is "hopeful" that supply chains improve.

Evans evidently told Liesman that it takes "12 to 18 months" for rate increases to have an impact. (But that doesn't stop them from another 75-point jack every time a CPI number is rolled.)

Steve said he has "talked to a lot of people" and is hearing about "spotty liquidity issues" in financial markets, but "it depends on the day."

The judge said Neel Kashkari said last week that there was "almost no evidence" that inflation had peaked. The judge said he asked Neel a question on Twitter about "what exactly" prompted him to say this.

"He came back to me" and said he focuses on "core inflation" versus "core inflation," the judge revealed, asking Steve Liesman if there is no evidence that "core" inflation has peaked.

Steve said he didn't know Neel had responded; "Good job," he told the judge, adding: "At heart, you're a reporter, even though you're the host of the show."

Steve went on to say that "there is anecdotal evidence" and that the "core" rate has continued to rise. But Steve said higher rents will "doom" the IPC for 6 months and they "really need to play that game". (Along with the game of people offering $200,000 more for a house than the list price.)

Steve told Judge that he was discussing with a "big money manager" this morning whether the market fears inflation or a "mistake" by the Federal Reserve and that it appears the "biggest concern" is a "mistake."

The judge said that Neel did not respond to his "follow-up".

Meanwhile, Steve told Joe Terranova that Charles Evans did an "interesting comparison" of this market to 2018.

Joe said that "the market in 2022 has unfortunately not realized that time is the only solution to all of this."

(Before we post Steve's answer, let's think about this for a moment... what exactly did the market "miss"... Joe is saying that stocks should be 400 S&P points higher if "it happened account" of what you just said? How does it work?)

"Timing with the right policy is the solution," Steve clarified. "If you don't have the right policy, time is your enemy."

Jim Lebenthal, unfortunately, went back to talking about the "transition from growth to value (laughs)."

Jim said the positive for this market is that "a banking crisis" doesn't seem to be happening in the US yet, the system is "almost not in jeopardy."

"Who is the marginal buyer of Treasuries now?" Joe asked.

Steve Liesman, not the judge, delivers the scoop of the week

Typically, Steve Liesman's job, and he does it extremely well, despite some digging here, is to explain how financial markets are very bullish on what members of the Federal Reserve are saying.

On Thursday (10/6), Steve gave an interview to the judge "story hunter" with a quote from Rick Rieder about the lack of liquidity in the bond market.

Steve said that Rick told him that if the bond illiquidity in 2008 was 10, the current situation is "around 6."

“Might be worth having Rick with you,” Steve told Judge matter-of-factly; A while ago Rick was almost daily (Rick always says "listen") but the judge hasn't had him in years.

(Kind of like the Najarians.)

The judge questioned whether the Fed will not be influenced by the problems in Europe and if these problems "came into the room" in... you know what, we were trying to think of a place for the Fed, but we really can't... ... you know, the CIA people, when referring to headquarters, will say "Langley wants..." ... but we just realized that the Federal Reserve doesn't have that equivalent... too bad...

Anyway, the judge said that if the liquidity shortage is at 6, the Fed doesn't want it to go to 8 or 9 because that is "beyond breakeven."

The judge added that if the market is torn and glued, "it doesn't look the same. It doesn't look the same."

Steve said he's right, and that the worrying idea that the Fed might have to change course because it "ripped up the bond markets" is an "institutional issue."

Steve said "sure" they are looking at Europe.

As we enter October without Najarii...

Bryn Talkington opened Thursday's (10/6) halftime report by saying that we can "continue to get technical up to 3900".

"But make no mistake: We are clearly in a bear market," Bryn said (because apparently the worst thing anyone in the world can do, according to central bankers and others, is believe that this might not be the worst bear market ever). . )

Steve Weiss, who in 2022 seems more interested in the wrong bulls than in whichever direction stocks go, said Friday will bring a "binary" reaction from the market, but it's only a "short-term" reaction.

Weiss said that "the bulls" want to buy at the "smallest move" in inflation, and if inflation goes from 8% to 7%, the bulls will "buy the market," but "that's not good enough for the Fed." .

Weiss said there is "no chance" of less than 75 bp at the next meeting.

Weiss said the impact of the Fed's work on the economy is why stocks will be "much lower."

Jason Snipe said the Fed will "tighten."

Josh Brown said he agrees with "all the comments" he just heard on the show. Brown said that companies will not be as likely to lay off employees as they have been during past recessions due to the difficulty in hiring, which will be a drag on Fed action.

Brown made a great point about the summer/fall 2022 stock market: "I don't even know what we're rooting for anymore. Bad news, midterm news, good news? What do the markets want?"

Bryn said: "If they continue to raise rates after December, that would be incredibly irresponsible."

What is The New George Washington's new TWTR plan today?

The judge is obsessed with Eric Johnston's market outlook expressed this week, and at the break on Thursday (10/6), the judge replayed the clip from Monday.

The judge asked Steve Weiss if Weiss is really "okay" with a soft landing idea. (Answer: No, because messing around with a soft landing means you can't hit people with different views.)

Weiss said it's "possible" but that "the markets really do trade in the direction," whatever that means.

Josh Brown said that energy is a "goal-rich environment."

Bryn Talkington explained his new POCT trade, which apparently offers "15% loss protection" and "20% upside." She crossed our minds.

In hyperbole, Josh Brown called TSM the "greatest company in the world."

Bryn said she owns NVDA but didn't add this year; "I don't need to be a hero."

Mike Santoli said: "We have survived 2 big weeks of Fed talks right now." We have? Seems like, apart from 2 days, it's been a bit of a downer.

Jason Snipe owns PANW and said "there's still an opportunity" in the name, one that Joe Terranova likes to mention.

Josh Brown said the NFLX is acting like an "absolute horse."

Spend $44 billion to be the new George Washington

Tuesday's (4/10) halftime report, which should have been a celebration of some big days for stocks, was marred by another incremental development in the TWTR-owned saga, one of the least interesting trade stories in history. recent memory.

Josh Brown asked guest Casey Newton if "the responsible thing here" is to "turn everything off."

Brown then said that if that were the case, Elon Musk would not be "The new George Washington" and would be "10 levels higher than he already is."

A laughing Newton said that even if TWTR were to go away, "someone would rebuild something like that."

Liz Young said she "can't speak to individual names directly" but would still be "skeptical" about making a decision "today" on TWTR. Stephanie Link said that she would "take the money and run" on TWTR, shortly before the stock was halted and David Faber joined the show.

Kara Swisher, as always providing great feedback, joined the show late, saying that for Musk, this is a "deal version" and that "they got it in Delaware." Swisher shrugged, saying it's a "terrible business" and that she "could lose a lot of money."

Swisher laughed when Josh asked if Musk could merge TWTR with TSLA. "He can. I think. I guess," Swisher said. "I think he likes that thing."

Nothing to see here; Stan Druckenmiller says the Dow hasn't moved in 10 years

Meanwhile, in the break on Tuesday (10/4), the speakers weren't exactly spinning their wheels on the massive market gains for the week.

"This is a nice relief jump," Liz Young said, but "frankly, that's about it."

Josh Brown said the rally should be respected, the 2-day gains are more than anything since April 2020, but the market is "guilty until proven guilty" though he doesn't want to pour "cold water" on a market. day.

Liz actually talked about the Bank of England "injunctions" (laughter) against the Federal Reserve. And she cautioned against waiting for a pivot.

"If they go dovish now with 8.3% inflation, we're in trouble," Liz said.

Guest host Frank Holland, in a question that could have been asked for the past 2 years on a daily if not daily basis since CNBC's inception, asked Josh Brown if he is "concerned" about a "policy mistake" by the Fed. Federal.

Frank tripped Josh over whether the Fed keeps its foot on the "gas pedal" or the "brakes."

If we were to have lunch with Stan Druckenmiller, what information would he give us that he hasn't already mentioned in Delivering Alpha?

The breakout report on Monday (10/3) was so sleepy that we found ourselves pining for “ETF Edge”. (This was about ESG. Nothing to see here - move on.)

The 13th minute judge said that Joe Terranova was "looking at the Q's (Zzzzzzz) again".

Joe said that the "Great Moderation" (laughter) is what the Fed did in the early 1980s.

Steve Weiss called the "pivot" discussion a "waste of time."

Weiss says she wonders "every day" if she's being "too pessimistic."

In an update to his spring refrain about China "going after" Taiwan, Weiss suggested that "China may blockade" Taiwan. (We thought he had given up on that.) (A good justification for a stock swap.)

Sarat Sethi said she didn't see "that amount of negativity... they all sound like Weiss." At that, Sarat says "I think we're close" to bottoming out and would add around 3,500-3,400 shares.

Who is buying January WYNN calls from 77.50 for $5?

Friday's (9/30) halftime report wouldn't exactly knock "Mary Tyler Moore" Chuckles the Clown off the list of TV's most memorable.

Joe Terranova kicked things off with a jarring statistic: "For the quarter, we were actually up 14% at one point. In the last 80 years, we haven't had a quarter where you went up double digits and closed the quarter at negative."

Joe at minute 14 mentioned QQQ (Zzzzzzzzz) and said that the current range of the S&P is "tradable" up to 3735.

The judge said that Marko Kolanovic, in a note that "just came out", is now concerned about a "policy error".

The judge asked Steve Weiss if Kolanovic is "one of the last bulls standing, throwing in the towel." Weiss said "Not at all", although it is "kind of encouraging to see". Weiss went on to salute David Tepper by calling from the background after the 2008 crash and stating that "there is no playbook" for this economic situation.

The judge said that Weiss "did not really address the issues in Kolanovic's note that I asked about" (which he did not) and asked Weiss about possible policy errors. Weiss said, "I couldn't be more negative."

Rob Sechan shrugged bluntly: "It has to get worse before it gets better."

Bryn Talkington said he bought WYNN "about 66" and sold 77.50 January calls and "raised $5 of premium revenue" in anticipation of Macau reopening and because October 16 is "the big election in China."

Stephanie Link said that NKE was punished too much on Friday. The judge said that maybe the bad outweighs the good with the stock. Stephanie admitted that stocks are "probably dead money" in the short term.

Weiss said that MRNA, like all of its positions, has been "downsized significantly" and it's been a terrible two years for health care. Joe said that he "has his eye on Intuitive Surgical." The judge said that "everyone seems to like" ABBV.

Joe said there are "all the fundamental reasons" to have energy. The judge responded: "Beyond a slowdown in the global economy."

In the even quieter show on Thursday (9/29), Weiss finally threw in the towel on the auto shops he's been trumpeting ever since, Volkswagen and Porsche. He said that he started selling this week. "He was right on the company analysis and completely wrong on the stock analysis. And the stock analysis is what matters," Weiss said.

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Jon Najarian appears on Worldwide Exchange with Frank Holland at 5:30am. m. ET, he calls oil and gas plays "pretty tasty"

We almost lost.

But we don't.

MuchEarly Wednesday morning (9/28), CNBC viewers caught a rare (these days) appearance of Jon Najarian on Worldwide Exchange, hosted by Frank Holland, as Sully is now a series regular on The Exchange in absentia. from Kelly.

Doc, whose voice was a bit gruff, told Frank, "As we enter winter and with China reopening, I think the oil and gas games are very tasty at this level. This would be one of the areas of the economics I would really understand." in. in a bigger way now."

Najarian was listed in the text on the screen as "CNBC contributor" and "Market Rebellion co-founder." As readers of this page know (see below), neither Jon Najarian nor Pete Najarian have appeared with Scott Wapner on an episode of Halftime Report since July 7 due to a dispute or disclosure issue and perhaps due to an awkward interview between Jon Najarian. and Wapner on July 7. Jon Najarian made a halftime appearance on September 9 with guest host Dom Chu. Evidently, based on Jon Najarian's recent appearances and tweets, Jon Najarian has the green light to appear on at least a few shows on CNBC and is willing to do so; Pete Najarian, by his choice or by CNBC, disagreed with the terms of participation. Both Najarians remain listed as contributors on, and Pete Najarian's Twitter includes "@CNBC Halftime Report Star.

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Joe says he'd drop everything to have lunch with Stan Druckenmiller.

Stanley Druckenmiller evidently gets the drill.

When news organizations like CNBC host conferences, they look for catchy headlines.

Stan gave them a Wednesday (Sept. 28) before the halftime report airs when he said he'd be "shocked" if there wasn't a recession in 2023, and probably bigger than an "average garden variety" recession.

The judge also said that Stan said, "The Dow won't be much higher in 10 years."

Joe Terranova said that Stan is a legend and that "if he invited me to lunch tomorrow, I would drop everything to go."

However, "I'm not afraid the next 10 years will be flat," Joe said, explaining that there are still ways to "generate alpha."

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No one on the Wednesday show is talking about giving Jay Powell a break (maybe it's FINRA rules)

Jim Chanos, the featured guest on Wednesday's (September 28) Halftime Report, came straight from backstage at Delivering Alpha just before giving a presentation.

Chanos said there are many business models that "struggle" at the 2-3% that "don't really work at the 5 and 6%."

He said that it is "still missing" COIN, but it is less missing ZM than it used to be. He said tech investors will have to take note of Zoom buybacks.

In general, "a lot of these business models are based on unrealistic profit," Chanos said.

When it comes to the Federal Reserve and inflation, "the problem I have with all of this is that by raising rates to 4%, it seems like we risk collapsing the economy," Chanos said.

We don't know what Chanos was planning to talk about at Delivering Alpha, but he wasn't exactly full of headlines on Wednesday.

I wonder if characters from QQQ or Capital Group ETF commercials appear in Delivering Alpha?

Joe Terranova in the Wednesday (9/28) halftime report said the Apple issue is a "classic stress test" for the stock market, but the market is handling it "very well."

"The weakening in demand is coming from a cheaper phone," Joe explained.

“Today we are being rescued from the BOE,” Stephanie Link said.

Sarat Sethi pointed out that if you live in Europe and Asia, the Apple phone costs 10-15% more than just 6 months ago.

Joe said perhaps the June low that matters most is the AAPL's 129.

Sarat said GM is "one of those cyclical stocks that nobody wants to own," but when it changes, "you're going to make twice as much from here."

Joe bought SGEN and said he traded at 185. (And if Melissa Lee had been hosting, she would have said, "Maybe she didn't DESERVE to be 185!").

Brian Belski says FINRA-licensed investment professionals 'can't say' the kind of 'charged' criticism of the Fed that Jeremy Siegel made

Our expectations for the quarterly report on Tuesday (9/27) were low. But the show was very good.

The issue was not "what stocks should you buy" but "what is the Federal Reserve doing wrong." That last topic was beaten to death. But some articulate comments were made on Tuesday.

The judge said that "this whole thing" about rate hikes "came to a head" last Friday when Jeremy Siegel complained about the Fed's approach.

Calling the Fed's machinations this year "a complete circus," Josh Brown called Jay Powell a "lawyer" and asked, "Are you going to sit in a room and find out how many truckers and nurses have to lose their jobs before they he be happy with- ?"

The judge said that if Powell had been an academic, “the criticism from the other side would be, 'Oh, it's crashing the market; He doesn't understand the markets.

Jim Lebenthal said the judge could not affirm all of Siegel's comments, but that Siegel also "pointed out that the Federal Reserve has been consistently wrong."

Mike Farr, however, said that Jay Powell is concerned that we are entering one of those "runaway inflationary phases" (laughter) and he has an "extremely difficult job" so Farr is "willing to come forward."

Brian Belski, the day's keynote guest, admitted it's been a terrible year for markets, saying he "just didn't know or understand" that investors would be "so vehement" going into the fourth quarter.

In a bit of a reveal, Belski said Jeremy Siegel's comment was "surprising" and that "there's a lot of things we can't say, uh, in the public domain because we're licensed and, uh, from FINRA and all that." kind of thing, we can't be that, charged for that."

At one point, the judge said of the Fed: "Some would suggest that no matter what they do, they can't handle where inflation is worst, not at all." (Some of us would suggest that the central bank has quaint "mandates" and is pursuing the effect of something rather than the cause of something.)

Josh Brown asked Belski a great question, whether price increases could "stick" as long as underlying trading costs come down, which could keep margins high. Belski said the theory is "correct."

Brown said at the start of the show that there is "internal confirmation" that stocks are falling.

Judge said that he is working on some questions for Ken Griffin about Delivering Alpha.

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Pete Najarian was off the air for almost 3 months, apparently due to an issue that has yet to be resolved.

There's a famous saying, or if it's not famous, it should be, that goes, "That's what happens in a bear market."

Pete Najariantwitter profileit even says "Star of the @CNBC Halftime Report."

But we all know that it is not so.

At least, it hasn't been since early July.

Similarly, Jon Najarian has made a total of 1 appearances since July 7th, which was the day Jon was asked by "judge" Scott Wapner about investing in Market Rebellion (which is the Najarians' company). on Voyager Digital. Wapner asked Najarian if Market Rebellion received fees for Voyager referrals. Najarian said: "I can't comment on that right now."

There was another angle that might have been more revealing, as Najarian was asked if he was a "partner" with Voyager, as Steve Ehrlich apparently said, according to Wapner. Najarian said he was "never a partner."

This page has learned that there has been, and appears to still be, a disclosure issue or dispute, likely related to this July 7 exchange, but not necessarily because of it, and not necessarily related to the financial disclosures shown on television or online, which is behind this remarkable television pause.

Pete Najarian, unlike Jon, is a panelist on Fast Money and the Halftime Report. His biography still appears on the CNBC website for both shows. He last shows stock posts on July 8. (Interestingly, these Fast Money bios include daily stock posts, not necessarily recent, while the Halftime Report bios do not.) This page has no record of Pete Najarian being questioned on air about Market Rebellion's ties to Voyager, but contributors (especially those on 2 shows) can provide taglines almost any time of day on CNBC, and it's possible that this happens during one of Pete's appearances.

Since July 7th, Jon Najarian has appeared once on Halftime Report, on September 9th. The guest host that day was Dom Chu. Najarian's company was not mentioned in the opening introductions, and Chu did not call out Najarian until 17 minutes into the show in what must be considered a silent appearance.

And Jon Najarian hasn't appeared on the show since.

This page is also aware that intros on CNBC shows are generally not contractually binding. In other words, if Scott Wapner says that "Jane Doe of XYZ Company" is on the show that day, Wapner (and other hosts) simply include "of XYZ Company" as a courtesy.

Whenever the Najarians appeared on the show, they were regularly introduced as "co-founders of". Most of the speakers are hosted by Wapner with no commercial affiliation.

The fact that Chu didn't mention Market Rebellion on September 9 indicates that 1) he wasn't asked to say it or 2) CNBC has decided they don't want it mentioned. In the latter case, note that CNBC evidently had no problem displaying the company's name on the screen on 9/9 multiple times.

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It seems each Najarian handled this situation differently. As Jon reappeared on Sept. 9, he tweeted that day (above the headline here) that "not sure if" and when will Pete return to CNBC.

And it's probably significant that the September 9 episode was hosted by a guest and Scott Wapner was not present.

This pagedoes not knowif there's a problem between Wapner and the Najarans, about Voyager or anything else. We only know what we saw and didn't see on TV.

The last thing we heard is that this situation is still changing. And this may be our working theory: Questions were asked about the market rebellion in July, on the air and after. While these issues were discussed, the Najarians were not invited back on the show. At some point in the discussions, Jon Najarian received and accepted an invite, while Pete Najarian did not. That invitation possibly came without the endorsement of Scott Wapner, who hasn't had any of the Najarians on a show he hosts since early July. And there's a chance that this hiatus, which is no doubt growing longer by the day, especially in TV timelines, is only temporary, as CNBC didn't delete the profiles of the Najarians and Jon Najarian, until Friday the 23rd of September. he still tells the brothers to "be on @CNBC here and there," even though there's actually no recent evidence of that.

The status of the Najarians is probably one of the biggest immediate issues for the new CNBC chief.KC Sullivan.Sullivan replaced Mark Hoffman on September 12. Sullivan's title is President; Hoffman was president. The guess here, just a guess, is that Sullivan, upon taking office, was handed this situation and is taking the time to look into it.

It's also possible that CNBC has essentially made up its mind and is waiting for this situation to quietly go away. No ads, no web bios debugging, nothing official. Wait to see if Options Action's backers complain or if enough viewers demand the brothers return. In the past, the channel broke relations with a few other contributors (no need to bring them here) due to various issues. But most tend to stick around forever unless Fox Biz makes them a better offer. Najarians are popular figures on CNBC. But it's been almost 3 months and people are still watching the channel. Maria Bartiromo left. People still watch.

In their 15 years on the channel, the Najarians have given CNBC a boost. Each is among the most articulate and reasoned voices on the channel. Jon speaks more openly about politics and non-market issues. Pete is extremely measured, always using the same terminology and rarely deviating from his planned comments on options or stocks. Both bring a rare enthusiasm to their daily appearances: an enthusiasm for the markets in general, whether bullish or bearish. This page has criticized what had long appeared to be Najarian food stamps, the suggestion to "follow" big buyers on options trades detected by Najarian software. With that being said, there are plenty of viewers waiting for this information.

Like most CNBC contributors, the Najarenses have a "regular job." They have been linked for the last 15 years to various business entities mentioned on CNBC. About that, this page has no opinion. Many contributors can, or do, parlay their CNBC celebrity status into speaking engagements, conferences, and general client list building. Viewers may not always realize that contributors may be making money not so much from shares and titles, but from referrals, guest appearances, books, and reviews. And if something possibly goes wrong in these other areas, and if the people hired to perform certain tasks end up making news in other activities, this can raise questions from other employers.

As we said, this is the type of thing that happens in bear markets.

In the Monday (Sept 26) halftime report, guest hosted by Dom Chu, Bryn Talkington said that people in the first 7 months of 2022 thought the Fed was "kidding."

"Now we know they're not kidding," Bryn said.

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Jeremy Siegel questions the caliber of questions being asked of Jerome Powell (presumably this includes Steve Liesman's awkward part 2 on factoring variable lags (seriously))

The guest star of Friday's (9/23) halftime report was delivered, presumably because many viewers share the same opinion.

Jeremy Siegel told the judge that it was "very funny" that a year ago, in the midst of the "explosion" in property and commodity prices, Fed members said there was "no need" to raise rates. rates in 2022; now that those prices are falling, the Fed needs to "hold its ground" through 2023.

"It makes absolutely no sense to me," Siegel said.

"Inflation has basically stopped," Siegel said.

But while complaints about the Federal Reserve are a daily staple of business television, complaints about the business media are not.

Siegel said that at this week's press conference, no one asked Powell: "How come we have 3.2 million new workers and GDP is falling...? There were no hard questions. There were 50 reporters there. I don't know, they basically said, you know, repeat the statement you made at the beginning."

You're almost right about that. In fact, we listened to the entire event. (Jeanna Smialek of the N.Y. Times got the first question, which was pretty disappointing.)

One could have simply asked "Yes or no: a lot of people are losing money, so we have to put some people out of work to make Big Macs 50 cents cheaper."

In any case, Siegel said that Fed officials suddenly say, "We're going to be tough guys until we crush the economy."

"Bad monetary policy would be an understatement," Jeremy concluded.

So we had to ask, to no one in particular, exactly why Jeremy is outraged at these people.

If you think the economy is broke, we're not seeing it yet. As Josh Brown said the other day, all that talking and walking hasn't brought prices down. It also didn't cause the Great Depression II (see judge's comment below). Yes,It's disgusting to hear this comment from the Fed every day,but we're not sure they've screwed up anything besides short-term stock charts.

If, on the other hand, Siegel is angry with the stock market, we understand. This never-ending cycle of threats to cause a recession by lowering everyone's net worth, not for the greatest of reasons (to keep people from bidding 50% more on a house that just appeared on realtors' listings than Buyers haven't even seen it yet), it was getting old around March and it's almost October now.

But that's the kind of nonsense that happens in a free market. As Rodney Dangerfield says in "Caddyshack," "Is everyone selling? So buy, buy, buy!"

Later on the show, Jenny Harrington insisted on commenting on Jeremy's comments.

"Everybody sucks at forecasting," Jenny explained, so Siegel is right that the Fed sucks, too.

Jenny then added, "This whole thing is based on messy math and bad forecasting," but the "drive" to make better decisions "takes this stock market to ever greater heights over the long term."

That's a bit weird.

The judge said Siegel gave an "epic speech."

Mark Fisher later, in overtime, suggested that Siegel's tirade "could have been a marketable bottom."

Fish: 'We have to stop hitting the middle class'

Mark Fisher, guest star on Friday's Overtime (9/23), said: "We need to manage the supply shortage. The only way inflation will come down in the long run is if we go ahead and create more energy, better food, more housing and lower health insurance costs.

Drawing an analogy to treating your blood pressure with 1) medication or 2) weight loss, Fish cautioned that "the minute the Fed goes down," your blood pressure will go back up, but if you lose 50 pounds, "your blood pressure isn't up." support for."

So Fish says the long-term solution is to "stimulate supply."

Well, that's true. But that's the job of a free market, not a central bank whose real mandate is simply to make sure banks have enough money to open every day (although they should have called Mary Barra in early 2020 and suggested that she actually build some cars). 🇧🇷

Later, however, Fish went so far as to say, "Congress needs to control the supply." Is Nancy Pelosi going to hand out our Chicken McNuggets?

How has Jay Powell not been asked when the Najarians will return to CNBC?

In a statement that really helps explain the central bank's financial circus, the judge at the halftime report on Friday (Sept. 23) said the problem is that the economy is "very strong" and "very healthy," and that is why the Fed is bringing a "hammer".

The economy is so healthy that we need a hammer to break it.

That's quite a mandate.

Joe Terranova, who also landed a listing on the NYSE for Overtime, which resulted in too much exposure, said "There's been a dynamic change (laughs)" in Jay Powell's comments this week, "Now I think you have to question the earnings."

Joe, who sold Uber, said Friday is a "classic sales day." Then, in overtime, he said Friday's closing market activity was "indicative of a sell-off sentiment" but by no means an "all clear."

So they're selling out, but maybe doing more sales.

Or something like that.

Grandpa Steve Weiss, who is always bearish when the market is down and always finds trading opportunities when the market is up, said, "Buying a stock here to me is like running into a burning house and waiting for Let the fire department come and save you." before going back to the barbecue.

Weiss, like Mark Fisher later, called the UK news "just staggering... They're fanning the fire."

The judge noted that Weiss talks about "this GOAT and that GOAT" but "give me a number" for an S&P buy level. Weiss replied: "I can't give you a number, because I don't know, it depends on the circumstances."

'Actually, I'm having fun'

Jenny Harrington in the Friday (Sept 23) halftime report said the "average multiple" of the S&P 500 is 14.3, suggesting "there's been tremendous pain."

Jenny said “we could have a nice little rally” and “I think the worst is probably over now” and, with an incredibly straight face, “I'm really having fun”.

Jenny said that Brad Gerstner's META case was a "very strong bull case" that Jenny was unable to overcome. The judge responded that "he didn't make an exceptionally strong case about META, he actually professed his exasperation about it for maybe the first time... he warned them." Jenny said she took this to mean that Gerstner predicted "significant money" in the stock, holding it for the long term.

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The Fed chief tells us how we can get rid of inflation

Before we get to the breakout report on Thursday (Sep 22) (see below), we would like to note a comment from Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon following the Federal Reserve's interest rate move announcement.

"So how are we going to get rid of inflation?" Powell was heard saying. "It would be nice if there was, you know, a way to just wish this would go away, but there isn't. Um, we have to get supply and demand back in line. And the way we do that is by slowing down." the economy."

That is an interesting word. "Alignment."

Seems like a one way "alignment".

You know, instead of increasing the supply, they're just decreasing the demand and calling it a good thing.

This exercise of curing an effect of a problem instead of the problem prompted this comment that day from Gary Cohn, on Closing Bell with Sara Eisen: "I don't know how we stopped having job offers...really overwhelming demand."

No Najarians since September 9

In the Thursday (September 22) halftime report, Josh Brown pointed out just how much some of his recent purchases have fallen in 2022.

Brown said he bought NFLX as part of a "trim" approach, which is basically buying things that have been "killed" and other things that are "holding up very well."

He placed the NFLX in the latter category, despite noting that it was "$700, uh, not that long ago."

Brown also bought SMH because "it's already cut in half." He said that the SMH could fail, but "I don't care" (yeah right).

Steve Weiss, however, said: "To say where the stock is coming from and use that as a justification to buy is ridiculous."

Brown responded that when the NFLX was at $700 it was 65 times future earnings, now it's 20. "There's a big difference" between those levels, Brown said.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal cut his target for S&P from 4,800 to 4,279 (laughs). Jim cited the "absence of a banking crisis" as one of the reasons he did not go pessimistic.

Then Weiss said to Jim, "you just dialed to change your price target." Weiss also said, "I had dinner last night with the GOAT." (This is David Tepper. His football team is not the GOAT.)

The judge actually said "b.s." regarding Weiss's claim that he doesn't have opinions on other people's investment styles.

I keep waiting for the face ripper

In Najarian-lite's Thursday (Sep 22) halftime report, Richard Fisher said with a straight face: "I know for a fact that Mr. Powell and the committee could (sic meant 'couldn't') care the least bit." with what the politicians say".

Are you sure about that?

Steve Weiss insisted to other panelists that Jay Powell was saying "I really mean it" and "we're going to eliminate jobs, essentially." Why does a grown man need to tell other grown-ups "I mean it." If they're too dumb to figure it out, isn't it their fault? And if he's really "sincere" and the lack of adults doesn't acknowledge that he means he'll wreck the economy, then aren't we in for a world of pain anyway?

Fisher said the difference in multiples like NFLX a year ago and now is that "money isn't free anymore."

Jim Lebenthal said (for the second time on the show), "There is no banking crisis right now."

Josh Brown bought VNQ and advertised real estate. Kari Firestone said, "It's definitely bold, Josh." Steve Weiss and Josh clashed over whether Brown is "unaware" of the impact of leverage on the real estate space, with Weiss citing ProLogis' AMZN connections.

On Tuesday (09/20), Josh Brown reaffirmed that he believes the market is "poised" for a "head-to-head rally", which seems to imply that we are at a fear high and approaching a "big decline". . But Brown obviously doesn't see the big fuss, saying, "I just don't think the market is scared enough" to go back to the same mid-June levels.

'A lot of what I've seen this year, uh, is and it happened'

The main headline on Monday (9/19) came not from the half-time report (again without Najarian), but from extra time, which the referee opened with Josh Brown on the fast lane (that's what they originally called it so anyone I called it). Fast Money) to discuss Brown's afternoon note that, due to the VIX and bond yields, we may be having a "facial rally getting ready, post FOMC."

It's been a long time since we heard "ripped off face"; is a favorite CNBC/Wall Street term.

But an hour later, Karen Finerman at the 5:00 p.m. m. Fast Money suggested that positioning before Fed meetings is like a "game of dodgeball."

And earlier at halftime, Joe Terranova reiterated that "the market is in a dangerous position... to the downside, but "we should look at it as a big possibility."

Make all of this what you want. (JUST DON'T DARE SAY “PIVOT”. GO BACK TO ALL THESE CRAZY 49-48 CONFIRMED.)

Joe said we can "totally expect" 75 basis points.

"It almost matters what you get after that," the judge suggested.

To this, Joe said, "I almost wish there wasn't a press conference."

Kevin O'Leary actually said of straight-faced Jay Powell, "He can't take his foot off the gas."

ThoseTRUEIf you want to know what will happen, you can follow the suggestion of Greg Branch, who stated that in January, with the S&P at 4700, he was "in trouble" by stating that "the true value is 3800."

"But," Branch told the judge, "a lot of what I've seen this year, uh, is and it happened."

"I'm just not a buyer here," Branch added.

"I'm not sure I can say anything about Bitcoin being safe"

We've noticed that Jim Cramer's Investment Club seems to be getting less and less promotional attention from CNBC as this miserable bear market drags on.

But for those waiting for a lead, the judge's Monday (9/19) half-time report noted that Jim told him on Friday of overtime that he "really doesn't want to work in tech right now, that's susceptible."

"In this country, we don't have enough housing," Kevin O'Leary said, calling homeowners "brave" amid rising mortgage rates.

Putting on a good show even though this page would likely disagree with his endlessly aggressive prediction for the Federal Reserve, O'Leary hilariously said that an activist would have stopped ADBE from buying Figma at a "dotcom price" and the company "he would never have blown his brains out" with this acquisition.

Joe Terranova mentioned LPX, which used to be a name he mentioned frequently (along with "Palo Alto"), as a "great second derivative" for home recovery whenever it happens.

The sonic connection to Shannon Saccocia was pretty muted throughout the show.

As the halftime report transferred to The Exchange, Sully called Scott Minerd's 20% market crash a "famous prediction" (laughs).

At 5:00 p.m. m., Fast Money, guest host Sara Eisen and Tim Seymour discussed the Cincinnati Bengals, prompting Sara to admit, "They're having a terrible season so far."

Brian Kelly actually said, "I'm not sure I can say anything about Bitcoin being safe."

One more week, No Doc

After a few months off, Jon Najarian appeared on CNBC's Halftime Report on Friday, September 9.

Anyone thinking this could be a trend reboot may be losing hope.

Najarian didn't show up last week.

Given that 1) the 9/9 show had a guest host and 2) Najarian wasn't called in until the 17th minute and 3) Najarian's company was never mentioned and 4) Najarian seems more concerned these days with airing things related to your company. ... it may be that the CNBC-Najarian relationship is a little more... distant... than it used to be.

Pete Najarian hasn't been heard from on CNBC since early July. This is an ice age of television.

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Don't you dare say 'revolve' around this man!!!!!

Isn't it interesting, the truths that you sometimes hear on television?

In the Thursday (Sept. 15) halftime report, Josh Brown said about the Fed what the judge never had the heart to say: "They haven't really been able to affect prices."

And isn't that the point?

If the answer to the question "How high should interest rates be?" the question is "What makes Hunt & Fish Club steaks cost less"...and Hunt & Fish Club steaks, after several months of this creation/jaw, still cost more than people prefer. we need 200 basis points between meetings?

Brown noted that instead of cutting prices, the Fed this summer "definitely hit sentiment."

"They're not going to say the silent part out loud," Brown revealed. "That is, they need a million people to lose their jobs" because there are "enormous social costs" in layoffs.

Apparently that's the theory of work: Inflation is so nasty that we have to put some people out of work so others can go back to buying their 50 cent cheaper Chicken McNuggets.

Shrugging, Brown said summer stock rallies "stay against the grain" and, in a nod to Jenny Harrington, said that "dividend aristocrats are one of the best places to hide."

Jenny said, "I think ultimately all of this adds up to a very limited market." She said the 20% market crash is just "a fleeting moment in time" (the last 2 words are redundant). Jenny praised the AMBP as the latest trade of hers.

Al Michaels says 'investing for the long term' is basically 'next Thursday'

Though he's now on the Jeff Bezos Network, famed sportscaster Al Michaels provided Halftime Report viewers on Thursday (9/15) with some thoughts on the stock market ahead of the first regular season game of the NBA. nfl. Chiefs and Chargers. (CNBC voice Jim Birdsall is a Chiefs fan; we're not sure who, if anyone, likes the Chargers.)

Al's advice on this market? "No. 1, wear a blindfold. And No. 2, take all the money I have, put it in cans and bury it in my backyard. I'm scared to death," he said.

Josh Brown suggested that Michaels take a look at 6% munis (Zzzzzzzzzz). Michaels called this tip "successful."

But Al said, "Invest for the long term? Next Thursday."

The judge said, "You and many other people."

Al revealed that "I'm being dragged, Scott, from the analog world to the digital world." He predicted a "great game" between the Chiefs and the Chargers. (It really wasn't. It was decent. It wasn't great.)

"We miss you in the family," said the judge.

Huntington Beach y Manhattan Beach no son lo mismo

Brad Gerstner began his time on Thursday's (9/15) halftime report without exactly a few product endorsements.

Gerstner couldn't hear the judge at first, so he told the judge that it "appeared" that Zoom was having problems earlier in the day and that "Microsoft products" weren't working for him."

"Bad day for Skype and Zoom," Gerstner said when he finally logged in.

Like other notables recently, Gerstner said: "I think the risk has shifted to, uh, the Fed maybe tightening too much, right?"

The judge, wearing blue glasses, said that Brad is covering his shorts. Brad nodded and said he saw "opportunities" to cover shorts "that are down 60, 70%."

In fact, Brad said that people think of PTON as one of those stocks that "will rally to previous highs." But he praised the RBLX.

Gerstner called META "universally hated" and noted that it is "absent" from a Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco this week. "The prevailing opinion is that the business model is dead, that Mark panicked last fall, changed the name of the company, that he is walking around with AR/VR headsets and that his best days are behind him," Gerstner said.

But, "we are not selling shares at 6 and a half times EBITDA," he added.

Brad said that TWTR is talked about a lot in his "weekly poker game" and that he was "very surprised" to see how Twitter was handled.

Brad defended UBER, which is very similar to the cases done in the last 3-4 years. The stock has been very good this summer after a disastrous spring. (This writer doesn't hold a position at UBER, but he recently did.)

"The snowflake clearly emerged as a fourth cloud," Brad said. He said the shares are "fairly priced."

Brad congratulated Josh Brown on speaking "last week" (it was this week) and said he saw photos of the judge on Twitter that "looked like Manhattan Beach," though "not sure if they did any work."

Weiss says that Jim is "apparently a permabull"

Wednesday's (9/14) halftime report was a classic edition of what has become... The Jim Lebenthal Show.

Because the judge (who wasn't on Wednesday's show) somehow thought it was important for viewers to hear that the economy is better than everyone says and that inflation has peaked and that Cleveland Cliffs and Paramount+ are amazing.4 times a week.

On Wednesday, Jim admitted to guest host Frank Holland: "I don't think the bull case is dead, but it's certainly been thrown out."

Jim said he has been "firm" in believing that "the gains are going to stay there."

Steve Weiss said he has "tremendous respect" for his fellow speakers, later describing Jim as "seemingly a permabull" who is now "data dependent."

Frank noted that the PARA hit a 52-week low on Wednesday. Jim said the concern is that "they have to spend on content." But... here's an ending you've seen before... he thinks the market is "quite frankly getting it wrong."

Kari Firestone said there is "overpopulation" in the streaming space and "too many streaming services," and of all that content, "a lot of it is not good."

Joe 'applauded' Chapek's comments on ESPN

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's halftime report (9/14)

I'm not talking about the qqq

He said "the short term is dangerous" for stocks and maybe they could drop another 20%, but "if you're a long-term investor, that 20% drop won't really matter to you."

This comment didn't sit well with Steve Weiss, who said Joe is a "fantastic investor", but heard Joe say "what's another 20%? Well 20%, going back to the long term, that's a 3 year performance." ". . (What Weiss didn't add is that no one really knows if we're under 20%.)

Joe at one point said "oh, by the way, at the end of the day" (maximum clichés in the shortest catchphrase).

Frank Holland noted that Weiss sold his stake in PSQ on Monday. "Of course I regret it," Weiss admitted, but he also had a few QQQs and "doesn't regret" selling "98% of them."

Courtney Garcia said she's "definitely not" overcommitting technology right now; she discovered that only 3 names in ARKK have a "positive PE ratio". But she thinks the "probable" bottom is coming to market.

Dripping with sarcasm, Kari Firestone suggested it's hard to believe that Jeffrey Gundlach, who told the judge in Huntington Beach a day earlier that he could watch the S&P 3,000, could be "more bearish" than usual.

Kari explained that "we have to spend a few more months" waiting on inflation and the Fed before we can break out of the trading range we are in.

Joe said that regardless of the price of oil, energy is a "must have" in terms of "portfolio sector inclusion (chuckle)."

Joe said that MRK offers the "perfect hybrid of offense and defense." Kari said that "all the clinical trials are spreading," partly because of labor shortages. But Kari said the PYPL can "trade much higher."

Joe said that he will buy the DIS; he "certainly applauded" what he heard from Bob Chapek over the weekend, which in a way is that ESPN (remember when he was disappearing?) is the "vehicle" (laughs) for the company's growth opportunity. .

Mike Santoli said the market is "range within a range."

Weiss seemed to be leaning towards a big rally the day before.

The judge headed to the Future Proof Wealth Festival in Huntington Beach on Tuesday (9/14) to deliver...a sleepy episode of the Halftime Report.

(Actually, the judge was probably there to speak to Jeffrey Gundlach in person.)

(Gundlach is a fan of the Buffalo Bills. In fact, Wealth Festival-goers probably care as much about professional football and Jean-Luc Godard as they do about whatever the S&P 500 did on Tuesday. But the judge didn't mention these others. affairs).

Josh Brown said that the VIX is "only 26", but if it gets to 34 or 36, that's where you need the "dry powder".

Brown suggested that the 2022 tagline (people on CNBC claiming inflation has peaked) is overly optimistic, stating, "Next month won't be a low print."

Steve Liesman said a 100 basis point increase "probably isn't going to happen right now."

Jeremy Siegel, the main guest, although he was not in Huntington Beach, reaffirmed that he is concerned that the Fed will go too far, saying that housing has underestimated inflation in the last 18 months and will overestimate inflation in the next 18 months due to " the way the government places housing in these statistics".

Siegel concluded that the CPI "will record much more than we actually have."

Since the judge was in California, Mike Santoli was the guest host for Overtime. Present on the NYSE was Joe Terranova (who was not asked about QQQ).

How come Steve Liesman wasn't telling us that the Fed really means business (about one thing or another)?

The judge dedicated Monday's (Sept. 12) halftime report at the SALT conference NOT to talking about the exciting NFL action, but… Jim Lebenthal's financial outlook.

And... Joe Terranova's most recent position at QQQ.

Grandpa Steve Weiss predicted a "pretty powerful rally" if the CPI is weak, because the market has shown an "incredible appetite for risk."

Weiss also said there is a "news gap."

Amy Raskin suggested that the market's obsession with month-long CPI is "ridiculous in some ways."

The judge said that Jonathan Krinsky ruled that "the bears fumbled on the goal line at 3,900."

Joe Terranova spoke about QQQ in the 7th minute.

Weiss said that Volkswagen is "by far my most important position."

Weiss called Dave Tepper "THE GOAT".

In the second half of the show, the judge brought up SALT host Anthony Scaramucci (this is the New York version), and the judge bluntly said, "We've got to get away from these predictions, right? that people get on stage and do it, and bitcoin is going to cost a million dollars, you know, year X-Y-Z."

The judge said some would call bitcoin "overinflated." Anthony stated: "The use cases will continue to grow" and there is a "finite supply."

Anthony, who mentioned Sam Bankman-Fried at least 3 times, said people recently were "ready to write my obituary, or at least my financial obituary. I don't think they can do it right now."

"I'm like a human Swiss Army knife," Anthony said.

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Doc returns, but without the host announcing his company name

Halftime Report viewers were in for a surprise on Friday (9/9) when Jon Najarian returned to the "Investment Committee."

Maybe it matters or maybe it doesn't, but Najarian, who hasn't participated since early July, returned on a day off for the judge; the show was hosted by Dom Chu.

In the intro, Dom simply announced "Jon Najarian" as one of the panelists, minus the whole "co-founder of so-and-so" thing that used to be a staple of CNBC introductions to Jon and his brother Pete, who also has not appeared on CNBC since early July.

In fact, it took Chu 17 minutes into the show to communicate with Jon Najarian, who said he was "close to that 4200 level" on this "technical jump."

Najarian predicted that people will be "cautious" about what is happening in Europe, where sanctions are "biting" consumers, and that earnings could be revised down towards the $200 level that Jim Lebenthal does not expect.

Najarian also doesn't expect China to "roar out of the gutter" like American consumers came out of lockdowns.

He said JPM is the "only place" he's in banking, "one of the only banks that's really, uh, booming right now." He suggested that the technology may have been oversold and singled out ZS and AMBA; he even suggested that the TDOC and DOCU stories aren't over and that they "still have a business."

Najarian talked about the NFL as a catalyst for DIS and mentioned the Bills' victory. He said the Disney theme park director said they're "out of stock," so Najarian suggests buyers "look beyond the streaming side of Disney+ and look for the biggest revenue generators for them."

Whatever machinations are going on here, and this site won't weigh in on those details at this time, Najarian's comment was lost in the halftime report.

Doc said on Twitter that he has "surfed and traveled a lot in the last few months" and also tweeted: "Not sure if or when @petenajarian will come back to @HalftimeReport or @CNBCFastMoney."

Ugh, a few days without asking Joe about QQQ

The early parts of Friday's (9/9) halftime report, smoothly delivered by guest host Dom Chu, included what is fast becoming a CNBC 2022 cliché, Steve Liesman smugly hinting that everyone they should expect 17% interest (that number is a joke) from the Federal Reserve in a few weeks.

Steve said that we recently heard "5-part harmony" from the Fed's "hawk talk."

(At first it was "transitory", but now, according to Steve, the central bank believes there is a "persistence" of inflation.)

Steve said the market may be right that inflation has "peaked," but it's nowhere near that 2% target that... apparently will keep people from complaining about gas prices.

Jim Lebenthal, who has made some 272 (that's a joke) appearances on the Halftime Report since Jon Najarian was last there, called Steve a "truth teller" but said that if the Fed is "essentially finished" by December, then the market "will be fine.

Sun said that Scott Minerd made "relatively pessimistic comments" a day earlier in the judge's overtime. (Scott talked about 3000-3400, which is apparently "relatively bearish".) (Not sure if he mentioned "Fire & Ice").

Dom said "there was no talk of trade deficits at the moment."

Jim Lebenthal again, for reasons we cannot understand, praised PARA. Jim said that he bought more BA with the money from the NVDA sale.

Jim gave a lengthy update on Citi and said that Jane Fraser didn't have any kind of "honeymoon" market, who now realizes that "she has a plan here" which is, like all plans, "to get rid of the non-essential" active. .

The judge insists that the Fed is "against him"

In Thursday's (9/8) halftime report, Josh Brown said, "Frankly, the 50 or 75 debate is like one of the most boring debates out there." Brown said that eventually the market gets used to bad news. He also said that the WSJ's Nick Timiraos is "basically the spokesman for the Federal Reserve right now."

The judge, however, stated that the Fed is "against you now, uh, as an investor." Jenny Harrington said that "the Fed is not against us," likening it to making her son take Zyrtec and Flonase. Steve Weiss complained: "That's semantic, Jenny."

We thought we were getting over this post-pandemic hiccup, but on Thursday's show, another panelist (Josh Brown) who was working from home was heard telling a producer "you guys knocked me out again" over someone else's comment.

Weiss claims Brian Belski is tampering with the data "just for his benefit"

Brian Belski, the guest star of Wednesday's (7/9) halftime report (unless you count Fish's phone call at the end of the show), charted the path to 4800 this year, stating that "August doesn't matter." entering the "conference season".

Belski said you'd have to see "double unemployment" as a sign that we're having a recession. "I don't see any kind of recessionary sign," he said.

Steve Weiss has bluntly stated that Belski is "generating an enormous amount of information just for his benefit."

Belski raged: "Steve, there's nothing I've done in my entire 33-year career that has benefited me. I only talk (sic) facts and I only talk analysis, so no, don't take what you say seriously." . he said he. , that I only say things that benefit me".

There. (This page is not taking sides with that one).

(Okay... sigh... It seems Belski may have exaggerated what Weiss was saying, or at least Weiss's tone.) (Sorry for defending Weiss; it happens.)

Steve Liesman reported on Lael Brainard's latest comments. The judge told Steve that some people just don't believe the recent comments from the Federal Reserve that literally say nothing, but seem like a tool to bring down the S&P 500 for some reason.

"These people can send me a check, Scott," Liesman said; drew a "good thing" from the judge.

The judge asked Jim if the Fed will go ahead... whatever your people have been trying to suggest for weeks. "They just won't need it," Jim said, forecasting domestic gas prices below $3 through October.

"This is the soft landing," Jim said.

Very late on the show, Mark Fisher called to say that he seems to think energy is selling fast. "As a trader, I couldn't ask for a better setup," Fish said, saying winter risk/reward was "10 times better" due to lower natural gas and oil prices.

"The middle of next week is when you know, I think it's time to step in, not now," Fish said.

Jim's point was dismissed by facts on the ground in seconds.

In Wednesday's (9/7) halftime report, Jim Lebenthal said we are in the "middle stages" of a transition from growth to value "over the next 10 years."

While we're having a hard time spotting any real evidence to support this claim, Jim really caught Judge's eye by saying that "we're still in the early stages of an economic expansion."

The judge asked if Jim didn't mean "contraction." Jim acknowledged that there has been a lot of "heat" on this issue, but insisted that "economic activity is strong, period."

Jim stated that the Atlanta Fed is targeting real GDP of 2.6% this quarter. The judge said the Atlanta Fed was among the "worst ever" in terms of early forecasts.

The Atlanta Fed was evidently listening, as moments later, Bryn "Covered Calls" Talkington said the Atlanta Fed came out "a second behind" and revised its GDP outlook to 1.4%.

"I know you don't like it when I introduce facts into our conversations," Judge told Jim at one point.

Steve Weiss complained about what he sees as the bulls' expanding schedules, "3 years, 5 years, 10 years," maybe the next show "will be, in 20 years, we'll do better."

I wonder if Josh is still mad at the guy 'who talks about how great his TV calls are'

Apparently thinking this matter could earn him a Peabody, the judge on Wednesday's (7/9) halftime report asked Joe Terranova whether or not to buy QQQ in theopening minute of the show.

Joe, who is apparently buying it, said there's a "big lesson here (laughs) for viewers."

Joe reiterated that it is not about "being right" but about "reacting to the market."

"You have to wait for the indicators to act as a catalyst (laughs) that allow you (laughs again) to react," Joe said, citing the pullback in oil, Treasury yields and the dollar.

Joe said the risk he's taking here is to lose "a little."

The judge actually said, "I thought maybe you bought it because you were tired of me asking."

Steve Weiss admitted that he covered his short QQQ but said his view is "firm" that this is a bear market. He said that he covered up the reasons cited by Joe. Weiss said this is only "short-term relief" from an oversold condition.

Liz Young said that Joe and Steve are "better traders" than she is, but she would avoid QQQ due to continued volatility.

Bryn "Covered Calls" Talkington stated, "Technically, we're way over the top here." Bryn said Nasdaq stocks will be under pressure until there is a "better narrative" on inflation and the Fed.

The judge suggested Friday that people ask "What is Wapner really like?" when he appears in range

It only took 8 minutes.

In Tuesday's (9/6) post-holiday report, the judge found the subject of Joe Terranova's sudden lack of interest in QQQ to pertain to Block A.

In fact, the judge stated that Joe was "circling like a shark" (laughs) around the ETF.

In response, Joe, whose audio worked but the camera froze, said he didn't buy as promised because his strategy is to "react to what I see in the market."

The judge said that Joe owned the QQQ about 10 days ago, now he doesn't own it, so "What happened?" Joe said that "the technical aspects have been eliminated." (Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.)

Speaking of technicalities, Josh Brown basically hinted, as he has for months, that this is not the time to buy.

Brown said the bounces we've had are "completely within the range" of bear market bounces "of what we've seen historically for a bear market rally," meaning the 2000-02 market.

"Bear markets never bottomed out at 17 times earnings," Brown said.

Kari Firestone tried to put her own stamp on Brown's comments. "But saying, 'This is a bear market, we shouldn't own stocks,' isn't really what Josh means. He's just saying there's downside potential," Kari explained.

Later, however, Brown seemed to take issue with Kari's assertion that "if you miss the best 5 days of the year in the market, your long-term performance will be cut in half." (Which, admittedly, has always been a false theory. How many people invest in stocks 360 days a year and manage to miss the top 5?) Brown said many of the best days in stock history since the 1950s 1920s have occurred during bear markets. .

The judge has now said that the Credit Suisse guy thinks the bear market will last 14 months with a 35% drop.

And he said Mark Newton warns there could be a rally in September while "very few are waiting." (This comes after Tom Lee has been saying for weeks that we will kill the bear market just as fast as they did in 1982.)

The judge even talked about "Fire and Ice Part 2".

Joe said he believes "this market is 60-75 days away from being completely sold off."

Joe said that the ARKK hit a 52-week low.

Joe said that the AAPL is his most important position (Zzzzzzzzz) and "breaking news" that he will not escape.

Stephanie Link said, "I, uh, take the dollar cost averaging strategy" (that would make Eric Bolling roll his eyes).

Stephanie launched the META. Josh has said that he is either on the edge of the "cliff" of "the mother of all heels" or a "really nasty meltdown".

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Josh blasts TV stock pickers

In Friday's (Sept. 2) pre-holiday report, Josh Brown appeared to be in trouble with someone making stock calls on TV.

Brown yelled at his fellow panelists: "4 people who in real life, not on TV, have to answer to customers for the things we say and do. It's a lot different to have to do that... than to have to make calls in TV".

He continued: "There's another type of tipster who gets excited about how good your TV calls are, your Twitter links... it's very different than having to respond to other people in real life."

Hmmmm... actually managing people's money is a different and more serious line of work than making stock calls on TV.

But when people who do the first agree to do the second for 10 consecutive years, then...?

Brown said "respond" during this comment 3 times.

"I think I know where it came from," Judge said, without elaborating.

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Steelers fan Rob isn't asked if the NFL's next HOF QB was drafted by Pittsburgh

Friday break (02/09) was basically another edition of... Judge bullying Jim Lebenthal about the earnings outlook.

The judge said the "highest probability" is that earnings revisions are falling and insisted that "one can agree" that there is a "high probability" of... hmmmm... apparently earnings will fall even if the Fed raises 100. (He wasn't entirely clear.)

Jim told the judge (pleasantly not as loud as it sounds here): "Don't start yelling at me, okay, when I disagree with you, you tend to yell and I don't like that."

Jim added, "I go out and do my own rubber work," and economic demand has not "fallen off the cliff."

Lebenthal later protested, "I never said I wanted to be known as All-In Jim." The judge persisted in his diminishing earnings estimates. Jim said that he could explain his point of view and "he's doing it on purpose in a forceful way," but that he doesn't pay enough attention to the job market. (If he thinks this will prevent the judge from being a bother on this issue again on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, etc., he has something else coming up.)

Jenny Harrington, who leads the league in hair as usual and could have been called up on the New York Stock Exchange for a shampoo commercial, declared, "I don't think we're going back to the old days," though it was "great." reports".

Rob Sechan, interestingly, called the jobs report a "very surgical number" and said the volatility is not over yet and he expects "very, very aggressive" rhetoric from the Fed throughout the month.

"I still wouldn't load the boat," Sechan said.

Jim said the September CPI will "move the needle" more than Friday's jobs report.

Jenny, as talkative as ever, kept trying to talk to Josh Brown about semiconductors. Jenny emphasized that NVDA "takes a large percentage of the market capitalization in the S&P 500" but "doesn't contribute much to S&P 500 gains."

Later, in another thread, "My prediction is that we're going to look back in (sic) 10 years, and Apple, relative to 30 other stocks, will have done nothing," Jenny said, calling it a "dead heavyweight of stability". ".

Jeremy Siegel: 'On the ground, things are looking much better'

In the extension of Thursday (01/09), Jeremy Siegel questioned that the Fed "scares the market" about 2023, when "it has no idea" what will happen; it is not "a good image to project".

Judge was somewhat surprised during this interesting conversation, as Siegel said that in 26 of the 27 recent indicators, inflation was "below expectations." Siegel said he consulted the September 2021 FOMC meeting, when "half the FOMC said there was no need to raise interest rates in 2022."

"I got you," the judge acknowledged, saying the comment "underscores" Siegel's apparent point that he "don't believe in the Federal Reserve."

"They certainly didn't do what they wanted to do last year," Siegel said.

Kari suggests that Josh might be supporting a recession.

In the Thursday (Sept. 1) halftime report, Kari Firestone tried to sound bullish on financial markets amid headwinds from Steve Weiss and Josh Brown.

Kari said the market is down 10% in less than a month and if we retest the June low we could see people come back.

Still, "I'm still pretty pessimistic," Weiss said, explaining, "The Federal Reserve controls the markets. Period. End of story."

At one point, Kari told Weiss that the market is "less and less overvalued" every day this week. Weiss insisted that "it's getting more overvalued" as earnings fall, and Brown agreed.

Brown said he doesn't want to be "typecast" as "the new Robert Kiyosaki (laughs) or whatever and just warning people, warning people."

"A lot of damage has already been done," Brown asserted (as if the week-long stock market crash meant "damage").

Brown said that in June the market reached a "ridiculously bearish position."

Kari noted that this is "one of the lightest trading weeks of the year" and suggested that stocks are in the mid-June to August range high.

Brown told Kari, "I'm not supporting a recession or job losses."

"I laughed?" Kari said.

"No, 100% no," Brown said.

But Brown said, "Last time we were at the June lows, things weren't as bad as they are now," explaining, "At the time, we were still talking about 'Wow, look at how amazing unemployment is and look how Strong is unemployment. The real estate market is (sic)'".

"The market can change quickly," Kari said.

Weiss bragged that he had been "heavy since January."

Weiss said, "Now is not the time" to buy NVDA.

Ari Wald said the market "will probably get worse before it gets better." Wald suggested that we could go to 3,800; The judge said that most people would accept that.

Josh said Weiss dressed in black looked like "the Jewish Johnny Cash."

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What if inflation corrects itself? (a/k/a Enough of the CNBC tagline, 'The cure for high prices is high prices')

When the end of August starts to feel like the middle of June, when people on CNBC suddenly start declaring with their hair on fire: "Wow! ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ Newfoundland on economic conditions in the United States.

Joe insisted that if we're in an economic downturn, "there must be one" because, according to Joe, it's the "only way to fight inflation."

We assume that it is based on a sample size of 1 and has the name "Volcker" attached to it.

It's interesting how the Federal Reserve hasn't been the least bit interested in higher education or healthcare prices for decades.

But man, when you get to the gas pumps...

(And our question to Joe would be: Why aren't we still at 4%? Why sit by while this incredibly urgent problem ruins all our long-term prosperity?)

(But anyway.)

Jim Lebenthal, who was somehow not asked by the judge about the shovels in the ground in Ohio for the Intel factory, quoted Mohamed El-Erian as basically saying a day earlier: "Don't believe the Federal Reserve"; Jim said he doesn't think the Fed is lying, but "the data supports a soft landing more than people realize."

In the 14th minute, Joe mentioned "long-term assets" (laughs). This is called Momentum Commentary on CNBC. Joe admitted, "We're using that term again on the net." (There's also an "At the End of the Day" revival, but Joe didn't mention it.)

Joe says that he hates doing television in his office; "I like being on set."

Joe tried to present a 3 point plan for risk management; unfortunately, we lost track after the second point. (The Najarians are the speakers who like to use the term risk management the most… but they're not exactly on the show these days.)

Amy Raskin said she's not entirely optimistic, but she thinks we can have a "positive year-end." The judge then stated that "basically" what Amy said is that she doesn't believe in the Federal Reserve. Amy interrupted to question or clarify this, saying that she believes that the Fed's speeches are designed to "control long-term inflation expectations."

Jim likes V in the payout space; he predicted that the PYPL spends "a lot of time in the penalty area."

In fact, Joe said earnestly that Friday's economic reports are "incredibly important."

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yes or'integral approachnow is to bring inflation to our goal of 2%', why didn't we reach 4.5% last week?

The more bearish members of Judge's team (virtually the entire panel for the day) were running winning turns on Tuesday's break (8/30), without Jim Lebenthal or Tom Lee to cushion. (Viewers got an analogy between Springsteen and The Archies.)

Our biggest fear was that in overtime on Tuesday, Joe Terranova would be called to talk about QQQ again. (I wasn't.) (Whew.) Joe told Judge that "the techies" gave a green light to buy stock in mid-August, but now it's a "red light."

"There's no more technical catalyst," Joe said.

Speaking of effects confounding causes, we're trying to figure out why the Federal Reserve seems so much more interested in playing the S&P 500 than raising rates.

And the guy who goes fishing in Panama with Jim Cramer, what does he think (a/k/a, how aggressive are we when congressmen from low-income areas ask the central bank why rates are going up so much?)

As the judge's excruciating coverage of the Federal Reserve continued for a second day on Monday (8/29), the person who became most fragmented was…the judge.

Jim Lebenthal said the market was raising rates "with aplomb" and that he did not see any recession, not even next year. Joe Terranova insisted: "There has to be an economic contraction," although you can "call it what you want."

So the judge tried to tell Jim, "You're going to have a significant economic downturn... that's probably going to get worse for no other reason. Because the Federal Reserve wants it to be." (Ah. So now we're in Everything-Jerome-Powell-Says-Is-Will-Happen-again mode. Contrary to the laughs, we sometimes hear 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 12 years after Fed statements Federal). (And he's so determined to make those hawk rate moves instead of doing it on Friday, he's...waiting at least a month or so...)

Jim said raw materials are falling and retailer inventories are pushing prices down. So Jim really tested the judge, citing "10-year plans" for infrastructure projects that won't change according to the weekly news.

The judge said that these projects are "insignificant in the short term." Jim said "you're wrong" for rejecting him like that.

The judge demanded to know if the blades were "already buried" at Intel's Ohio plant. "Intel's shovel is planned," Jim insisted.

"You can talk about me all you want," Jim continued, eliciting a surprised look from Judge.

Jim asked the judge to "explain" why continued unemployment claims are "ultra low." The judge insisted that the numbers would go up because "Jay Powell looked you straight in the face on Friday and said that he would do it and that he wanted to." (Ah. Here we go again. Everything Jay Powell says is true. According to the judge.) (And if this speech was given with the S&P at 3,200, imagine if we had heard "the economy is not in recession" and "it has signs of strength.")

"It's not a difference of opinion, it's just a fact," the judge added.

"It's not a fact. It's actually a difference of opinion," Jim said.

"No, it's factual. No, it's factual, actually," the judge said, adding: "The economy will slow down more... It's just a matter of how much it slows down... How will it not slow down? ?"

"You can't tell me what the future will be like as a fact. Don't try it," Jim warned.

The judge shrugged, "You just told me what the future will be like as a given."

In fact, the judge gave Jim more time to explain his final CLF trade.

Remember when Jenny waited to buy AAPL for $100? (a/k/a measuring pallets on the floor)

At the halftime report on Monday (August 29), Joe Terranova announced that he won't be buying QQQ (his favorite name to talk about these days, maybe besides Palo Alto), but rather AAPL.

Joe said, "I don't think we're going to the races" because we have an "opponent from the Federal Reserve (laughs)."

Jim Lebenthal said he would "applaud" Joe for buying AAPL, saying, "I think we should be buyers here."

Degas Wright said he sees "a lot of opportunity in REITs."

The judge said it appears that "most of you" on the panel believed that "Friday was an anomaly." Joe said the market was "a bit off" on Friday. Joe said, "This is a U-shaped recovery." (Which presumably means that, after a 20% drop in the first half, it's not far from turning vertical.)

Many people seemed to enjoy using the term "long-term assets."

Stephanie Link said: "The Fed will be more aggressive for longer." (Because everything Jay Powell said on Friday is true.)

In a rather boring corporate battle, Glen Kacher said he is trying to get "the most value for our shares" in ZEN.

Degas Wright defended MPW and seemed to end the argument before the judge was ready for a break.

When CNBCers refer to Fed officials by their last names, they know they're looking at a lot of this stuff.

We would have preferred to ignore CNBC's insufferable Fed coverage of the week on Thursday (8/25), but unfortunately we turned on the TV and got what we deserved in the halftime report.

While the judge was making predictions, the Thursday show indulged in the usual spiel of playing the first 6 hours of trading after the Fed, as if he said stocks would go up for a day, and if he didn't say that, stocks would go up. for a day, the stock would fall for a day, etc.

Jenny Harrington said the market would be fine with 75 for the next high and then "that's it."

"I don't think 75bp is good," said Steve Weiss, who correctly said that any time Fed data/comment is released, it's a "50/50" bet on what the market's reaction will be.

Josh Brown stated that no one would actually decide to buy a stock if there was a 50 point increase and then not decide to buy it if there were a 75 point increase. (But Brown misses the point: someone who thinks it will be a maximum of 50 points would buy the stockprior toon Friday, whereas someone predicting 75 would probably wait until Monday or Tuesday).

CNBC Star of the Week Steve Liesman noted that last year, Jay Powell said that "demand-supply imbalances are getting better" (laughs), and this time he's going to have to "go back on that notion" (don't be That idea). notion Have you gone back far enough?).

Steve insisted that what the Fed says this week has a "lasting impact" (laughs) (until the next CPI) on where rates and markets go, and he is trying to "introduce" those policies for today. Liesman tried to tell Josh Brown that "people are spending a lot of money and time trying to figure this out" (laughter) and maybe there really are "permanent and lasting elements in the reaction to immediate Fed comments."

Brown said that regardless of what Fed officials say, "we should pay attention," but it is not "fruitful" to make bets ahead of Jackson Hole.

The judge, however, said: "I feel like 75 would be detrimental to the market."

The judge actually said "b.s." to the notion of how, for long-term investors, "none of that matters" because "when the market is going down hard, everyone's time horizon seems to be 5 seconds." Jenny Harrington has insisted that this is not true of her.

Jenny said a "nail in the coffin" in the decision not to invest in homebuilders was that customer reviews were "pretty terrible", suggesting that the builders may have brought products to market and "could have risked real damage to your brand.

Jenny also said that everyone who has seen the show has traveled and gone on vacation, and it's "off the beaten path wherever you go." The judge said that amid all this activity, JBLU is down 42% this year. Jenny said it's time to "buy low and sell high."

Steve Weiss said he bought EQT. (Zzzzzzzzz)

Kari Firestone said "June 31" at one point. Josh Brown said that SNOW "feels like it's in the background".

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The really important comment is the one that should have come later, which means "boxed in".

Sometimes the off-the-cuff comments on CNBC's halftime report are the most headline-worthy.

That's what happened on Wednesday (8/24) when Joe "maybe QQQ today or not QQQ today" Newfoundland made a comment about energy prices.

Joe, who donned an oversized suit for his visit to the New York Stock Exchange, said he doesn't see how stocks can go up if oil and natural gas "go up" because the Fed will be "in a box."

Which makes us think of several things. 1) If all these interest rate hikes aren't driving down the price of gasoline, then what?soncome down? But 2) Didn't gasoline start to drop long before the effects of the rate hike began to be felt? And/or 3) When did it become part of the Federal Reserve's "mandate" to lower gasoline prices?

What Joe is hinting at is a sobering truth: that the Federal Reserve will continue to take actions that hurt the stock market in the belief that it will solve an independent free market problem.

It sounds a bit like Detroit Lions fans decide that the more they roar before the snap, the more likely Aaron Rodgers is to throw an interception. And at halftime they're gruff, and Rodgers has 4 TDs and no interceptions.

The umpire completely missed Joe's comment, like a batter with a bat on his shoulder watching the 3-strike buzz smack dab in the middle. So viewers never hear Joe explain what the Fed does if oil and gas "go up."

Marko was not much different from Brian Belski

Marko Kolanovic was the featured guest on Wednesday's (8/24) halftime report, but frankly, it wasn't nearly as interesting as listening to Tom Lee.

Marko, who was dialing in, said the US consumer will be "fine" and does not expect a "global recession."

"A bit of pessimism is included in the price," Kolanovic said, predicting a "benign" CPI print for September.

In cheeky name-calling, Jim Cramer had to say that he's going fishing in Panama with Marko's colleague, Michael Cembalest. Cramer questioned Kolanovic's idea of ​​adding exposure to China. Kolanovic said it's a fair point, but the "discount is quite significant."

The judge said that Marko has been a "firm" maverick (laughs).

Not a trace of the Najarenses (continuation)

In Wednesday's (8/24) halftime report, the judge said he would agree with the "notion" that Jay Powell "can't really say much" about Jackson Hole, except that in July, the stock went up by the "perception of what he said". ."

And now, according to the judge, everything Powell says will be scrutinized to see if it "fits the press." (Translation: There can't be another rally. The Federal Reserve, for whatever reason, doesn't want stocks to go up.) (Why not 300 basis points? Why not 900? Isn't that supposed to squash inflation?)

Mike Santoli said that the New York Stock Exchange "used to close on Wednesdays for 6 months in 1968 to catch up on paperwork." Jim Cramer excitedly told Mike, "Your ideas are amazing."

Jim Cramer said he is "fed up" with Adam Jonas's negativity towards Ford.

However, Jim Lebenthal said he had to be "fair" to his " GM...they take good care of me."

The judge questioned how Jim Lebenthal can be a long CRM if he complains about NVDA's evaluation.

On Wednesday (08/24), at 5:00 p.m. Fast Money, Regarding PTON, Karen Finerman said, "When a great management team joins a mediocre company, it's the company's reputation that remains intact."

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Why doesn't the judge drive an electric vehicle?

The judge finally returned to the halftime report on Monday (8/22) and immediately complained that "every person at the Fed" since Jay Powell's last press conference has tried to say that the market is screwing up. (Translation: The Fed doesn't want people to buy stocks; they want another 6 months like the last 6 months because… who knows). But in fact, the minutes suggest the Fed may be more aggressive. (Translation II: they have no exact idea how far they are walking or not until the next batch of data arrives.)

The judge questioned whether the stock market crashed because of a "false narrative" that the Fed is "pivoting." Jim Lebenthal said the rally is not based on the prospect of a cut, but on the prospect of another 100 basis points by the end of the year.

Bryn Talkington claimed that Powell was "very, very clear" about 2% inflation. (Sure, they always make interest rate changes based on feedback they made 6 months ago.)

Bryn explained that Arthur Burns stopped raising rates and inflation "came back in full force." (How come it didn't come back with a bang in the mid-'80s, '90s, 2000s, and only after the factories closed in 2020?)

Meanwhile, the judge revealed that he was in California on vacation and felt some pain in the pump.

"It's not California Dreamin'" when you're filling up the gas tank, the judge said.

Now, we have no idea what kind of cars the judge has in his garage. In California, assuming he was getting gas, he probably drove a rental car.

Either way, we're still wondering how the Fed magically lowered gas prices even before the rate hikes took effect. (Maybe it was Joe Biden's complaint to the refiners.) (Laughter) Or what would be the real cost to the economy of artificially producing gasoline at $3 a gallon in California. The judge was not there.

Of course, before anyone can buy electric cars... or cars of ANY kind... we need to have cars in dealerships. Steve Weiss said that just because automakers are making more cars "doesn't mean they'll be able to sell them." Jim Lebenthal said yes; "Car stock now on the lot is 1/5 of what it normally is."

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'Zooms is much better than Teams'

In Monday's (8/22) halftime report, Steve Weiss stated, "The bulls seem to have it both ways," which is the belief that the economy is strong, but inflation is falling and the Fed will stall.

"Think about the contradiction in this thought process," Weiss said.

But it is not a contradiction. It's the daily half full/half empty market debate. At any given time, no matter what the Fed is doing, you can argue that whatever the Fed is doing is because the economy is too hot or too cold, and you can convince yourself that you're out of stock. Is your money. "Oh, we have endless ZIRPs because the economy is weak. Don't buy it." #greatstrategyforthelast14years

Weiss said: "Don't look beyond 10 years." It's true, when yields go up, stocks go down. Weiss said he doesn't think stocks will fall below the June lows, but he thinks we can "kiss those lows" and stay there.

Joe Terranova said that the market was flat on the 200 days. But he's still in the "buy the dip" camp.

The judge said that since the shares had not lived more than 200 days, perhaps "the trend is turning."

Bryn Talkington said the rally was driven by a "huge amount of coverage sold." Bryn said there is a "wide range of results."

Meanwhile, Bryn admitted that NVDA's technologies don't look good. But if it is sold, it is an "opportunity".

Bryn said that "Zooms (sic plural) is so much better than Teams." Bryn said the market is putting a lower multiple on ZM (25) than CLX (39). The judge said ZM can be cheap relative to a basic stock but "expensive relative to the market."

Joe even said "Palo Alto" (historically one of his favorite names) multiple times when comparing it to CRWD and FTNT, saying the latter two have more potential. Jim Lebenthal said the valuation is too high for him on those names.

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Frank led with Fed minutes (laughs)

In Thursday's (8/18) halftime report, Jim Lebenthal, along with Frank Holland at the New York Stock Exchange, opened the show by downplaying the Fed minutes because it is about "data dependency" and believes that "the probability of a soft landing is increasing."

(Jim didn't shrug off TV propriety, apparently unsure in his opening comments about whether he should be looking at Frank or at the camera that wasn't on the air at the time.)

Jim suggested that the bears should prove their case. When Frank later mentioned this to Steve Weiss, Weiss said, "I have no idea what he's talking about. 'The bears need to prove their case.' I don't even know what that means."

Weiss insisted that the Fed has "one goal" (laughter), and that is to "slow down the economy" (laughter again). Weiss said the stock market is thriving thanks to a cut in the supply of Treasuries. Weiss said the stock could "celebrate for the next several weeks," but keep an eye out for September.

Jim argued that Brian Cornell and Jamie Dimon said last week that the consumer is in "great shape." Jim said that Weiss is "trying to prove the bear argument by saying that consumer sucks."

Weiss insisted that "the consumer is not doing very well."

Steve Liesman said Weiss is right that market conditions have improved as the Fed has tried to keep things tight.

"I think the pigeons are a little bit ahead of the game at the moment," wild card Victoria Greene said, so she tends to agree "a little bit more" with Weiss than with Jim.

Greene said the market has not had a "full capitulation" and that a V-shaped rally is really "very, very unusual." (Um, not anymore, but that's okay.)

Greene and Josh Brown praised the LNG. In fact, Greene mentioned IBM as one of his 3 stock options, but Frank said he didn't want to talk about it, he wanted to talk about LNG. After Block A ended, we heard that part of the program was sponsored by IBM.

Bryn Talkington bought FCX "around 31" but sold the January 35 calls for $2.85. (This recorder is long FCX.)

Weiss said he wouldn't buy EL because of the valuation, but he wouldn't sell it; he made a good joke about Jim and the makeup.

Josh Brown defended BJ, arguing that "there's really no resistance in sight."

While Frank insisted on asking everyone at the top of the show what they thought about the Fed minutes (Zzzzzzz), Brown said it only "reinforces what everyone already thought."

But Brown called the number of existing home sales "remarkable." Brown said transactions are slowing but "prices are not coming down."

Brown advised against FOMO (it's a slogan, not an action) and again warned about the VIX around 20.

Bryn Talkington called the Fed minutes "no hamburgers" and said the Fed has about 400 PhDs and is therefore like "one of the most well-funded hedge funds," which he finds "amazing." "That the Fed only achieved a soft landing "less than 10% of the time."

Savita's capitulation at 3,600 on July 14 was not the end result, but it might as well have been.

In Wednesday's (8/17) halftime report, guest host Frank Holland quoted Savita Subramanian, whose capitulation started this rally, in a new note saying there are "infallible" "signals" (that was the term for Frank, but not necessarily from Savita) (that was Savita's term, according to Frank) which implies some calculation of P.E. ratio + CPI (Zzzzzzz) (make up statistics to justify a bad call) which indicates that another retracement is on the way.

Joe Terranova said he respects Subramanian, but that he's a "somewhat tricky" prospect (laughs).

Jenny Harrington started the show by explaining how she was bearish in the market back in January, but got "hot" in July. (Translation: Jenny correctly calls the market every 6 months.) But she's not so thrilled now, claiming the market is just "spoiling" the rest of the year.

Jim "James" Lebenthal said many people are on vacation at the end of August and "traditionally, September is a tricky month," so it wouldn't hurt to have "a little bit of dry powder."

These 2 may have sounded a bit skeptical, but Degas Wright bluntly said, "This looks like a bear market rally."

In fact, Steve Liesman said the Fed has "a long way to go" and it seemed to Steve that only Degas on the panel agreed with him that the market is very bullish on Fed policy.

Liesman, displaying that understated sense of humor, made a joke about Jim not having a tie.

Jim said semiconductors (always a boring subject for speakers) is just "a daily referendum on whether or not we're going into a recession."

Jenny said she didn't mean to sound "rude," but that 85% (or 80%, she implied both) of consumers are clearly spending money and doing well.

Jenny said that IBM is "very cheap" and when has anyone heard that before?

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Joshua, meet James

Tuesday's (8/16) halftime report produced one of the most curious exchanges in recent memory after Josh Brown, on the Englewood Cliffs set, expressed caution about certain looming economic headwinds.

Remotely smiling Jim Lebenthal, on the other hand, claimed that in 4 months, we will be past the Fed tightening and "junk" midterm elections and seeing "inflation come down" and "all that supply chain on the ground" (laughter for the last one).

"Hi James, this is Josh, thanks for joining us today," Brown said, strangely dead serious, before asking about "the big difference" between gas and rent, which Brown said "isn't shrinking."

James, who seemed curiously taken aback by the introduction, replied, "Yes Joshua, since you called me James, I'll use your formal name of Joshua, I think you made a good point," adding that he doesn't have a "contrary" to that. argument, but that nothing is "completely rosy" and that things beyond energy, such as freight costs, are seeing price pressure ease.

Guest host Dom Chu (not yet a judge) asked James about BA; "I know you travel (laughs) under that name."

Brown mentioned an inverted yield curve "screaming" and repeated a point he's been making in recent weeks, that this year's U-20 VIX has been a sell signal. Honestly, once we started thinking about it, we came up with this answer: if stocks are going to go down every time the VIX goes below 20, we'll never see 4,800 again. And if we see 4,800 again, the rise to that level it could start in June 2022 or June 2026.

Jim is asked if he "finally believes" in rallying.

In Najarian's half-time report (see below) on Monday (08/15), Kari Firestone said it's clear there are "a lot of people interested in buying".

Kari said a return to the June 16 lows is "unlikely." (Actually, the intraday low was on June 17, but that doesn't matter.) Steve Weiss later said, "I don't know if we know or not."

"This is a half-full market," said Weiss, who said he had "added significant exposure to equities."

Weiss said that despite claims by some, this has not been a good earnings season and made his usual prediction that all is well now, but stocks will get worse in a few months.

Weiss said he has been with DVN for a long time, and to ward off those who may have heard his skepticism about the energy sector, he said the energy space is "uninvestable" but "extremely marketable."

Joe Terranova said the market has more "upside potential."

Joe returned to his increasingly tedious speech about how the market shouldn't wait for a Fed "pivot" but should wait for the Fed to rein in inflation.

Joe's audio went south when asked what he thought about DIS.

Brian Belski, who made the same case of bullshit he's literally done all year, praised guest host Melissa Lee (the judge was off duty again) for how she's "handling Weiss."

Guest host Frank Holland on Friday break (8/12) asked Jim Lebenthal if Jim "finally believes in this rally."

Tom Lee, who is on some show on CNBC almost every day, made another August 1982 analogy on Friday.

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What's up, doc? Najarians not seen since July 7

The halftime report on Thursday (11/8) was most noteworthy for thosewas notsheets.

No judge.

The Najarenses.

In fact, we haven't heard from them since July 7th.

That day, coincidentally, Jon Najarian was asked by the judge at the end of the show about Market Rebellion's ties to Voyager Digital.

Jon Najarian wasn't the only person on the break to get questions about Voyager, and we don't think it was the sort of extraordinary exchange, though this page did call it one of the judge's "strongest moments of 2022."

Little did we know that it would be the last time we would see Doc for a while.

(The photo above of Doc covering his eyes is from April 5.)

Pete Najarianpage on CNBC.comincludes disclosures for July 8. This page hasn't quoted Pete since July 1st.

I haven't heard 'euphoria' in a while

At the halftime report on Thursday (11/8), the panelists weren't exactly elated. (We think "bull" is one of those final stages of the 4-stage bull market that Lee Cooperman always talks about.)

Josh Brown stated: "I'm not optimistic that this rally will continue at the same pace that it has."

Steve Weiss stated that he has been "very pessimistic" and stated that "it was the right decision" (except for the last 7 weeks)... about this.

Still, Weiss predicts that "things get pretty rough in September and October."

Degas Wright said September is "historically a bear market month."

Shannon Saccocia said consumer confidence in September and October could be "down" on political rhetoric, but "I think November and December are shaping up to be a good rebound in 2023."

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It could also have Tim Cook and Andy Jassy handing out the Lombardi Trophy

In the Thursday (11/8) halftime report, Josh Brown said he likes the NFLX in the long run.

Guest host Frank Holland impressively asked why Brown doesn't like the short term. Brown said that "the shares are up 37% in the last 3 months."

Citing the importance of live sports, Brown said the AAPL and AMZN will send "crazy checks" to MLB and the NFL, and the NFLX can't "compete" with that "to a certain level."

Steve Weiss questioned the return DIS gets on its investment in content; still have a problem with the evaluation. But he's looking to buy NFLX because it doesn't "have to have sports."

Weiss bought more SMH, saying the price was "armageddon", even though it is a "short position" on "too short a leash".

Weiss has been with TGT for a long time and doesn't think Brian Cornell will lose again.

Josh Brown has once again delivered a speech on the "acute problem" of natural gas.

Degas Wright sold UMC and bought STM to reduce his "exposure to Taiwan."

Josh took a victory lap BROS. "Wherever they go, within a year or two, the store has become a habit of consumption," Brown explained.

Frank asked how BROS compares to DNKN and SBUX. "Wrong compositions," Brown said, stating that "it's drive-thru in a parking lot."

Brown is long MTTR, but said he will not add because it is not profitable.

After Phil LeBeau spoke about Rivian, Degas Wright spoke about ALB. Josh said he's not interested in OEMs, which will be a "knife fight," but he likes CHPT as an infrastructure game. Weiss again praised VWAGY and said that he will add if he retires.

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Frank messes up some audibles

The S&P 500 rose about a billion points on Wednesday (10/8), however Jim Lebenthal (pronounced "Leebenthal" by guest host Frank Holland) warned Halftime Report viewers that it is "definitely" not time to "elevate football". ."

This despite Jim saying that it has been "literally" a year and a half since the CPI fell below expectations, an "incredibly long period of time."

Joe Terranova opened the show with a sleepy take on interest rates and why you should "stagflate."

Steve Liesman chose to focus on actual average hourly earnings.

Kari Firestone said the market "has lost interest in the Hail Mary pass" and that the market doesn't think it needs "a Fed revive."

Guest star Jeremy Siegel described what he would do if he were Jay Powell. "He would go to 50 and then 25," Siegel said.

Regarding multiples, Siegel said, "I don't think 17 is too expensive," but "we're heading towards a long-term relationship of 20 PE."

Siegel added that "we live in a world" where long-term real rates will be "zero or negative for quite some time."

Joe seemed downright dismissive of META.

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Kari Firestone decided to add perhaps the scariest stock of the last 12 months to the PYPL, stating that it "is up 40% since mid-June."

Joe said he's been in big banks for a long time. "I'm a believer in the stock market game," Joe said, promoting old favorite VIRT.

Kari Firestone said DIS "probably deserves" this rally.

Frank Holland said Jason Snipe allowed him to use his NFLX password, so "I know you own Netflix" (when he really meant "I know you're a subscriber"), asking Snipe if he's "still optimistic." about the actions. 🇧🇷 Snipe explained that "I sold it, you know, last summer."

Jim said that WYNN management indicates that it sees "no sign of a recession."

Frank Holland said Las Vegas was "packed" last week.

(Video) 'Easy Money' Movie review by Kenneth Turan

At the end of the show, Frank said, "See ya, you won't see me in overtime, that's Scott Wapner." He got us thinking, "Judge came back from break and only played 1 show today?" Instead, Mike Santoli invited Overtime.

Overtime's Josh Brown noted that the VIX falls below 20 and warned that there is a "lag effect" due to rate hikes and that "hell could start to break loose" (laughs) in September and October.

'Who cares' about the COIN deal

There was a little howl at the start of the halftime report on Tuesday (Sept. 8) when guest host Frank Holland asked Josh Brown if the chip warnings represented an "emotional moment" for Brown.

Brown said no, explaining that NVDA throughout its history has had "a lot of 40% drawdowns" but isn't buying chip stocks because it's a "tough space" and "next year looks cloudy."

Jim Lebenthal said he is selling NVDA because while the industry is a great long-term story, it already has "very overweight chips" and the industry is having a "speed bump" and when looking to cut NVDA "came straight to top of the list."

Brown laughed at how "the old playbooks don't really work" as the economic slowdown contrasts with huge job gains.

Phil LeBeau said it's a "big day" for BA and a "momentum shift" for the company.

Jim said delivery of the 787s will bring cash flow to Boeing, which means the possibility of a capital raise "really comes off the table." Josh said that BA is an "easy trade" using 125 as the bottom level.

Brown said "who cares" about Coinbase's deal with BlackRock; "there is nothing in it." Brown said that if you are bullish on cryptocurrencies, buy bitcoin, not COIN.

Jim Lebenthal called WYNN "undervalued" based on its US assets, with the potential to take advantage of any reopening in China. Frank Holland, for some reason, said, "The farmer over there, a little negative about the casino business." Jim protested, "No, no, no," when the show went commercial. (Probably a QQQ commercial.) (This writer is long, coincidentally, QQQ.) (Not because commercials air every 7 minutes.) (That money would be better spent on large-cap tech stocks.) After the break, Jim cleared up Frank's stumble, "I'm sure about the casino business."

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You'd think if there was ever a time to talk about China 'going after' Taiwan it would be now... but no (aka yesterday's market theories...)

It took a long time (54 minutes, actually) for Monday's (8/8) halftime report to pick up.

Guest host Frank Holland, who did an excellent job, asked Steve Weiss for his thoughts on whether cryptocurrency "found the ground."

"You know, it's a bit like O.J. is still looking for, uh, his wife's killer. I think a lot of people are still looking for the $40-$40,000 and that store of value that disappeared, that's the same thing," Weiss said.

Furthermore, "there aren't any there. Cryptography just has no use for it. You don't need crypto for blockchain," Weiss added.

No one has really picked up on this, although Liz Young and Kevin O'Leary have spoken out on crypto regulation.

Meanwhile, over stocks, Frank asked Liz if this is a bull or bear market.

Liz hesitated, saying that the ratings were "a bit over the top" (Zzzzzzz).

Weiss insisted that we will see the "shock" of the Fed tightening in October and September. (Note to Weiss: The market stopped worrying about rate hikes in June.) However, Weiss allowed it: "We're still good here for now."

Joe Terranova predicted a range bound market that fluctuates between 3950 and 4300.

Kevin O'Leary said the earnings were "much better" than anticipated and could continue through the end of the year.

President Joe Manchin (continued)

In his best point of Monday's (8/8) halftime report, a point he has made several times, Kevin O'Leary said that the demand for electric cars is so great that there is no need for incentives, so he questioned the "immediate monetary stimulus" in the Joe Manchin bill, which O'Leary claimed was actually "hyperinflationary."

Joe Terranova said there will be "a lot of companies" that will "drive" buyback intentions. Steve Weiss said he doesn't think the buyback behavior is "that significant."

O'Leary bought NVDA, one of Joe's recent Brag Trades. Joe said he was "not surprised" that NVDA set a "lower expectation."

Kevin O'Leary offered several reasons why he likes PLTR, but said he didn't buy it because he sees "a few more downsides."

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President Joe Manchin (continued)

The highlight of the Interval Report this Friday (08/05) was Tom Lee, who

didn't exactly make a bear case

he offered his typically bullish view of stocks... but with such innocuous and mundane terminology, we can't even put a headline on it. (Translation: Lee should have simply said "It's for racing from June 17").

Lee said the data allows the Fed to "stop surprising markets." (Note to Tom: This has already happened. It doesn't matter if inflation is 15% in the next CPI or the price of gasoline is $9 a gallon; the market is tired of hearing about both and doesn't care anymore.)

Lee said that inflation is "cooling off very quickly"; he was constantly comparing stock ratings to bond ratings (Zzzzzzz).

The judge, who cheekily wondered at the start of the show if everyone needs to "turn" for a "soft landing," told Lee that it seems some people think they need to sell the hit rather than buy the unevenness. Lee said he had a "staff meeting" on Thursday and found that clients are actually selling a lot, but he believes a "growth scare" will push PEs too far.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal said he thinks we're in for a "soft landing."

Rob Sechan, who put on a quiet show, said markets would weaken if "the bond market has already priced in all the good news."

Sechan said the shares are trading at "pretty high levels."

CNBC's Steve Liesman noted that there is a "great pent-up demand for workers."

Later in the show, the judge asked everyone nearby what they thought about the new stock buyback tax (invented by Chuck Schumer, though the judge didn't mention any names). The judge even said it seems "hypocrisy here is rich," and wondered why members of Congress can trade stocks on a "free market" while companies won't be able to buy back shares as freely. Judge and Jim Lebenthal watched as airlines repurchased and then sought refunds in 2020; Jim said that "it's one hundred percent political."

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Tired of hearing Jim weigh in on irrelevant PARA (a/k/a no matter what the report is, it's a good report)

Thursday's (8/4) halftime report introduced the notion of an interesting streaming debate, only to stumble over the definition of "consensus."

Joe Terranova asked Jim Lebenthal about what Joe said was a series of errors by PARA regarding "consensus" predictions. Jim suggested that there are "different sources of data for consensus."

"This was a hit for all that matters," Jim concluded.

Joe then asked if the PARA is "insulated" from the cord-cutting. The judge stated that "that's not really a fair question." Jenny Harrington opined, "No one is safe from cord-cutting."

Jim told Joe, "Transmission is insulation against cutting the wire...I'm not sure what you mean."

And the next time you hear about a company bug, see if you can find some "different data sources."

So it's riskier to buy a rising stock than, say, PTON

Thursday's (4/8) halftime report produced at least one howler: Steve Weiss claiming that "Every good investor has no ego."

Judge, pointing to some recent stock purchases, called Weiss a "hunter." Weiss admitted that he "did not foresee the change, but he was involved in the change."

In a controversial call, Weiss told Joe Terranova: "Oil is not going to dictate where this market goes."

Joe confirmed that he kicked MRNA out of JOET; Joe said "bye and good luck" because Joe lost 53% last year.

Weiss insisted that the story "hasn't changed" and that by "the end of next year" MRNA will be happy to own it.

Joe said at the start of the show that he is "rebuilding growth positions." But Joe sold QQQ because his risk, "as the price keeps going up," supposedly "increases," in Joe's opinion.

Joe also bragged that he bought NVDA for $149 on July 5 and bought CMG for $1,290.

"Good stuff," the judge agreed.

Joe said that the "intangibles" of the stock market (laughs) come from "positioning" and "sentiment."

Jenny Harrington suggested that Joe was just "handpicking" and said the market made a "statement" that it "really bottomed out in June" and that many strategies can win.

Jenny defended Devon and all the money he will make from oil at today's price or even above 60; The judge asked if oil names hadn't skyrocketed and suggested Jenny was concluding: "So the moves up were justified, but the moves down weren't."

Joe said he would be underweight energy at $60.

Jenny also referred to how the pendulum would "wobble".

If the goal is to fight inflation, why do Fed officials care where the S&P trades?

In Wednesday's (3/8) halftime report, the judge certainly did not find any bassists.

Jim Lebenthal said this is "the real thing" rather than a "bear market rally." (We don't know exactly what "the real thing" means, but as this page has said, clearly from 7/27, "going to the races" is an accurate term.)

The judge demanded that Jim tell him why the market was able to "chop up this hawkish Fed talk" in which, as is common, Federal Reserve officials try to convince people they shouldn't have bought. the shares they ended up buying. (Were they telling people to buy on June 17? He didn't heed that advice.) Jim said "a lot of wood was cut."

"Inflation is showing signs of peaking," Jim said, pointing to gasoline.

Kari Firestone seemed optimistic. "Time to buy some stocks at these lower prices," Kari said.

Joe "don't spin, just fight inflation" Newfoundland said he's still buying QQQ. He said growth has outperformed because "there seems to be this resistance" as rates rise without stifling gains.

Degas Wright said he would recommend the dollar cost average in the market.

Kevin O'Leary said it seems a "certainty" that there will be a "traffic jam" on November 8. O'Leary said he has "a lot of job offers" but "can't hire people."

"We are not in a recession," O'Leary proclaimed.

O'Leary admitted that owning COIN was "brutal."

Joe said he "looked up" JPM, only to discover that it is "dead money." Instead, he sees a "great opportunity" in UBER.

Unlike others on the panel, Kari Firestone didn't sell PYPL, perhaps almost everyone's favorite sale of the year, and said "Oh yeah," she still likes it.

Jim demanded to know why the judge wasn't asking about CVS (Zzzzzz).

Degas Wright praised the CAT. Kevin O'Leary said the dollar is proving to be a "huge headwind"; he likes DE instead.

Joe said the AAPL is in an "incredible" race.

At the closing bell on Tuesday (02/08) (the pre-judge overtime show, hosted by Sara Eisen), NBER CEO James Poterba offered insight into the most important definition of "recession."

Poterba said the NBER defines "recession" as "periods of time in which a decline in economic activity is widely dispersed throughout the economy and lasts for a period of at least several months. Therefore, its depth, duration, and spread are the 3 characteristics of a recession that the NBER would typically analyze in an attempt to identify periods that would be classified as recessions".

Jay is back in the bugs

Greg Branch said "end of the day" 3 times in as many minutes on Tuesday's (8/2) halftime report.

The lease took 6 days to happen, but Branch stated that "Jay Powell probably made a mistake."

Branch said Powell signaled that the "program" to fight inflation was over.

"He didn't say it was over," the judge said, but led some to think it was "the beginning of the end."

But Branch insisted that Powell was ending the "program."

In fact, Mike Farr said that Branch is right, which Jay Powell said after the press conference: "Damn, that's not what I meant." (Because the Federal Reserve simply doesn't want anyone to buy stocks. Why doesn't the Federal Reserve take control of the stock market and price each bond the same way it does the overnight loan rate? )

Joe Terranova reiterated his insistence that stocks are rising not because of the prospect of a pivot, but because the Fed is attacking inflation.

At one point, the judge joked that, for determining the state of the economy, the CPI is "ridiculous" and "such a lagging indicator" that it tells us nothing about the "current state of inflation."

Joe said he's going to buy something from UBER at a "20 to 25% advantage" after taking JPM out of his portfolio.

Joe left on November 9, 2016

Given the star billing in Monday's (8/1) halftime report, Joe Terranova said the kind of market bounce we saw in July is reminiscent of a few other times: "April 2020. March 2009."

This is an elite company.

Around here, we're not stock market technology experts, but we know we've seen the thing go to the races every few years; the only problem is that you don't really know it until it happens and you may end up holding on to the bottom before the bottom is actually here (eg March 2022 vs July 2022).

Joe said there is still "a lot of skepticism" that the market needs to "root out", which is why he remains long QQQ.

Jim Lebenthal, whose market view is announced four times a week on this show, said: "I think the funds are here."

However, "You can't expect us to go straight up," Jim said.

Joe offered what would be a bad sign: "I am wrong in my assessment if the bond market now reverses and we see significant selling pressure."

Judge reported that Dudley's wet blanket is warning markets: "Don't be sure" that he is out of the race. (The Federal Reserve prefers that no one buy stock, ever. It just makes them angry, people who buy stock.) (In the meantime, until recently and to a certain extent, they can do their own operations.) Joe said that buying the market waiting for a "pivot" is the wrong move.

Brian Belski explained that people were "very pessimistic" and that there was now "a huge tightening up." Belski said the market wants inflation to go from an "escalator down" to an "elevator down."

Judge and Leslie Picker speculated as to whether David Einhorn is trying to stuff this into Elon Musk personally.

Joe said the handicap in TWTR looks very well priced.

Mike Santoli said that we have a "3 fork road" that the market can fall into. That's quite a prediction.

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Tom Lee in the driver's seat

They say: what goes around, comes back.

Tom Lee's bullish argument tends to come up much more often than the alternative.

That's what happened this week, in an amazing rally so ferocious that we're starting to wonder if they're going to open up the Nasdaq on Saturday, July 30, so people can buy more stocks.

Lee, in fact, appeared in the halftime report on Friday (7/29). While he was always modest and didn't take a victory lap, he did suggest that there might be a lot more fuel for the fire.

Lee says that the market anticipates a "point of inflection in inflation". He pointed to 1982 (sort of a sample size of 1, but whatever) and stated, "That inflation-driven bear market was erased within 4 months. You had almost a 3-year bear market that completely recovered in Four months."

Lee added: "By some measures, I would really say that leading indicators say that over the next 6 months monthly inflation will annualize below 2%."

Bryn Talkington took issue with Lee's reference to the 1980s, saying that in 1971, the S&P P.E. there were 16, and in 1982, there were 8, there were also "huge tax cuts" in 1981, whereas now we have tax increases and persistent inflation. Lee said earnings were down between 1982 and 1987, but the multiple shot up to nearly 25, and the 10-year multiple was either 6% or 8%, though we're not sure how that refuted Bryn's apparent argument that 1982 was historic. excessive sales. level.

The stock market, especially TV forecasts, is often a "what have you done for me lately" type of business. Lee was floating 4,800 at the end of the year.

A week ago this page would have been mocked.

Renter... historically which has been the biggest fear, Hillary/drug prices or Liz/bank negotiation

Jim Lebenthal in the halftime report on Friday (7/29) said that the market rally is just a "change of tone" or "change of sentiment".

But Jim envisioned "jumping around for a while" instead of "going out to the races."

However, Jim thinks we are overdue for a happy IPC. "It's been a year since you've had a benign inflation report," Jim said.

Everyone praised the energy. Jim said that he is "very happy" to have purchased XOM. (This writer is XOM Long.) Jim said energy supplies will remain tight, that's the only headwind in his overall market bullishness. Jason Snipe seconded Jim's comments on CLC. (This writer has a long CVX). Bryn Talkington suggested that the White House will "edit out" these "enormous gains." Bryn also mentioned Elizabeth Warren. We still don't know if Elizabeth Warren has thwarted a bull market, despite how often she's been feared on CNBC... but she just might. Rob Sechan (Happy Birthday) talked about EOG.

Jim said the risks to energy are 1) political and 2) "regime change in Russia" (the kind that would lead to a more pro-Western government).

Bryn Talkington happily admitted his "worst trade of the year," selling AMZN in May for around $110, then buying META "in the 190s."

Jim Lebenthal said he no longer does business with ROKU, although it's a "great company," its downfall is a "lesson for everyone" that "price matters." Bryn said that ROKU is a "great company", but there is no "g" or "e".

Bryn blamed the C-suite for some bad PYPL quarters, but is now holding back due to the "great ecosystem."

Jim said he doesn't have time for PARA analysts who can't see past 3 months.

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Weiss busy retreating

One of the ongoing problems with calls to action on CNBC is that there really is no end point or game over.

If you are wrong today, you may be right tomorrow, or vice versa.

(Translation: These reviews are for entertainment purposes only.)

Which is where Halftime Report viewers meet Steve Weiss, who on July 18 claimed that the time to buy is "maybe 5 months from now; maybe 4 months."

Evidently, that schedule was sped up significantly, because in the recess on Thursday (7/28), Weiss was asked by the judge if the market got the Fed meeting right.

"I think the market was right," Weiss admitted, before revealing: "When the press conference started, I put some big positions in Q's, VOO and SMH."

"I think the market can continue to recover for a while," Weiss said, adding: "The big news is out now."

But he predicted a "different story" in the fall.

Later on the show, Weiss revealed that he bought DE. "There are food shortages all over the world," Weiss explained. But then we have the analysis. "It's not a complete position yet," Weiss said.

The judge refused to question the result of the survey No. 1 to correct inflation

The biggest skeptic in Thursday's (7/28) halftime report was not an investment professional, but CNBC's own Fed watcher Steve Liesman.

"I didn't hear the dovishness that the market seemed to react to," said Steve, who focused with the judge on expectations of where interest rates will ultimately fall.

Steve told the judge, "If you think we're going to get inflation under control, hmm, and do it quickly without the Fed going into 3 1/2 to 4% punitive territory, hmm, you shouldn't present TV. You should take everything." your money and bet it all on the stock market if that is your track record.

On the other hand, "There's Larry Summers," Liesman acknowledged, saying Larry thinks the Fed might have to get into "punishment, 4-5% territory." (Laughter)

Liesman insisted on "the labor problem that is not being addressed." Steve said the CNBC poll asked what's the first thing the government could do to curb inflation. "Increasing legal immigration" is the answer, Liesman said.

Nancy Davis called the Fed's action this week "super boring" and the meeting a "big yawn."

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New economic definitions (continued)

Jay Powell's main comment during the Fed talk on Wednesday was certainly: "I don't think the United States is currently in a recession."

But something else caught our attention.

Powell told CNBC's Steve Liesman: "Price stability is really the foundation of the economy."

This is another effect confused with the cause. But then again, when the Federal Reserve's "mandate" to make sure banks have enough money every day has been twisted over time into "price stability" and "maximum employment," why does anyone need to take them? literally?

Weiss's market call has been mishandled since June

As far as we know, the 2022 low of the S&P 500 was 3,636.87 on June 17.

Which means that after the thunderous rally on Wednesday (7/27), the stock market is up 10% from the bottom in a very short period of time.

Which means the persistently pessimistic calls from some Halftime Report panelists are getting louder.



This page didn't make the 10% uptick... but then again, this page in April and May didn't see 3636 in June.

It could be as simple as the S&P chart trading inversely with the wholesale gas price.

Or it could be that the actual data does not match the message "No one buys used Rolex anymore!!" comment heard on corporate television.

In any case, there will be no Fed meeting until September 20. Enjoy.

What happened with
in the V-formers?

In Wednesday's (7/27) halftime report, Liz Young predicted that the market will "start to pick up, I think in August."

Liz admitted that she told the producers that it's "irresponsible" not to be in the stock market," later clarifying what she meant.

Steve Weiss said he told Judge off the air the day before that the market would be higher on Wednesday, but that doesn't mean it's going in a "sustainable direction."

Weiss said it's never "irresponsible" to "worry about risk management" and joked that if it's irresponsible, those who fully invested even 50% should perhaps be "pulled out and quartered or shot for capital offences."

Weiss was also looking for fights for some reason over META, claiming that it has a "very, very uncertain future." Degas Wright said that the Metaverse is a "platform" and not a product. Weiss demanded to know the "fundamental basis" for investing in Metaverse, then proceeded to interrupt Degas to say that META is "running out" of money while Degas was trying to explain why he likes stocks.

In fact, Jim Lebenthal soberly said of the Boeing CEO, "I think he's doing a good job," a comment Joe Terranova and Steve Weiss met with incredulity.

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At least we don't hear Jim say that anyone who loses their job can immediately get one in a more relevant industry.

In the process of absorbing Tuesday's (7/26) halftime report, this page prepared to report: "Just what we need: another hour of hearing about Jim Lebenthal's favorite stocks and his bullish outlook."

But then we hit a surrogate opinion: "Exactly what we need: another hour of listening to Josh Brown hint that Lexus drivers can't get a hot meal anymore."

On Tuesday, in a session that included 3 people at the same table who were not affected by the satellite delays, Brown again spoke about consumer spending.

"This is like another pandemic trend reversing. Why is this the case? Because the buyers aren't showing up. And you can look across the spectrum, the market for used Rolexes, baseball cards, NFT bullshit, it's a thing after another after another." ."

So we did some research. Yes, we found an article from 3 weeks ago about poor second hand Rolex sales. The baseball card market, however, seems to have more trouble with the guys who hoard boxes as soon as they hit store shelves than with disinterested buyers.this excellent articlelast week by Bill Shea in The Athletic quotes Ken Goldin, who runs a popular sports memorabilia auction site that we learned was bought by none other than Steven Cohen (remember him?). Goldin says, "Goldin as a company is doing more business in 2022 than it is in 2021," but concedes that "it's a lot easier to sell a $500,000 card when the S&P is at 4,000 instead of 3,000."

And that last comment is what Brown is missing. Slow sales of baseball cards or Rolexes aren't causing the economy or stock market to slow down. They are an effect of what is happening in the economy and the stock market. Brown could just as easily say "Look how low the Nasdaq Composite is this year" and make a stronger, more concise point (and he only needs to come up once every two weeks).

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No one at halftime seems concerned about the possibility of a leadership vacuum.

The most interesting thing about the Monday (7/25) halftime report (and basically every other episode this year) is what wasnohe listened.

No one mentioned the government as a possible headwind.

We couldn't count how many times during CNBC's existence we've heard people during midterm election cycles declare that the stock market was "suspended" until November.

This year, it's much worse than the typical pile of evidence that floods your mailbox and cable TV gets blocked with ads.

There is onemuchof concern at the top.

As to whether the 2024 presidential race will feature an 81-year-old incumbent getting 5% in the Iowa caucuses and New Hamphire primaries versus a fellow twice-indictee who 1) can't lose a nomination and 2) ) he can't get the majority of the country to vote for him, and 3) he evidently (correctly) thinks the best way to deal with his legal problems is to keep running for office.

If you think, as halftime speakers apparently do, that confidence in the presidency has nothing to do with the stock market, you may be in for a bit of a surprise in the next 2 years or so.

The judge misinterpreted the statement, saying "Although we are convinced" when it was "they are not", they are not "they are"

Clearly, we are beginning to see some capitulation.

Not bulls... but bears.

The judge's break report on Monday (7/25) says the Morgan Stanley guy insists he's not "convinced" this is anything other than a bear market rally (see headline above for missgrammatical of the judge when reading the statement), he admits that actually wondering, "Is there something going on that we're missing?" this could even spell the "end" of the bear market.

Jenny Harrington weighed in on this statement, explaining, "If you just veer this way and that, you lose credibility. So you have to start paving the way."

(When does a strategist "lose face"? What is possibly the criteria? We've never seen that happen on CNBC. Not even -50% return on stock picks.)

And Jenny thinks she's "starting to see it the way I see it now."

"I bet we've seen the worst," Jenny concluded.

Meanwhile, Joe explained that the "bullish momentum" will be "challenged" this week. Joe said that he bought the QQQs last week and said: "It's not Joe who buys the Q, it's the market that tells me, I'm reacting." (Translation: run-of-the-mill impulse trading.)

Jenny talked about the extent to which MMM fell as a reason to like it. (But when they're stocks she doesn't like, then you can't call them "oversold.")

The judge made a good joke, referring to Joe Terranova as "SPF-negative," while Josh Brown, on Monday, came up as "SPF-zero."

Joe said that the Fed has to be "extremely aggressive" (laughs) (yeah, right) on fighting inflation and that it can't be pulled off the hook anytime soon.

Brown insisted on AT&T's disclosure of "having trouble billing" "late cell phone bills."

Jenny Harrington made a weird argument about midyear being a good thing for earnings or earnings estimates.

The judge said seriously about Tom Lee: "We don't read his notes every day."

Judge brought back Jim Lebenthal for a catchphrase; We're not sure why Jim's February perspective, the most repeated on the show by far, needs to be brought up every day.

Nobody buys a new car today if they think it will be 10% cheaper in 2 weeks

In the halftime report on Friday (July 22), Steve Weiss made the only major comment:

"More than earnings, Scott is what the Fed will say."

I can't argue with that one bit.

(On the other hand, wait: Weiss made a second point that bears repeating.)

The judge rattled off a bunch of names that Weiss, despite being "still a pessimist," is long on. Weiss said that he changed BA and DAL according to the Farnborough air show, but that he is now out; he talked about POAHY, which, as a "luxury brand," is unaffected by most consumer slowdowns.

He was also analyzing how much of the "bounce" he was getting. (Zzzzzzz)

Later in the show, Weiss tried to explain why buying stocks should include both short-term and long-term considerations. "I don't buy a new car today because I'm going to drive it in 2 years. I buy a new car today because I'm going to drive it today."

In fact, Jim DID NOT mention that everyone who gets fired finds a great job right away #streakbroken

In the most tedious discussion (by far) of the day, Jim Lebenthal was invited on Friday's (7/22) halftime report to recount his conversation with Lourenço Gonçalves, the famous CEO who manages a $16 stock.

Jim said Gonçalves is "extraordinarily happy" about the "cash flow." (Of course, a CEO will look like a superman when he meets a TV personality.)

But Steve Weiss insisted that "this is not the market" for a company like CLF.

The judge predicted that, despite Weiss's stated skepticism of the CLF, he "will end up buying the shares."

Weiss made a great joke about Jim and "Payne Capital."

"Courage is not the absence of fear"

In the halftime report on Friday (July 22), Jim Lebenthal explained why he says he is "nervous" about the markets, because he sees the "risks out there."

Jim then gave viewers a tagline: "Courage is not the absence of fear. It's action in the face of fear."

Jim said there was no "kitchen dive" in the earnings reports.

Rob Sechan complained that Arthur Burns' move in the 1970s to cut rates "when nominally GDP began to slow" ended up "exacerbating and prolonging" the inflation nightmare of the 1980s.forevergreat; it's just that the Federal Reserve is screwing up.)

Jim said he's "very bullish" on GOOGL because he thinks we're in for a slowdown in growth.

Jonathany Krinsky is not interested in buying AAPL at this time. (Jenny Harrington said a month ago that he would buy it for $100.)

Courtney Garcia praised EQT and DE. Jim said that DE seems like a "no-brainer."

Jim disagreed with the call to "sell" in PARA.

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Judge has no idea if Katy Huberty still works for Morgan Stanley

In every issue of the Halftime Report, the Judge fails to notice that almost (almost, but not all) all of his speakers, bullish or bearish, are making the same call in July as they were in February. (#who cares about the facts on the ground)

But one person prone to change is not a speaker, but Mark Newtown, Tom Lee's aide at FundStrat, who apparently specializes in 3-week market forecasts.

On Thursday (7/21), the judge brought up Newton's now-daily, oh-look-at-the-bottom-I-could-be-in-perception.

Jim Lebenthal said there's still a lot we don't know about earnings. But Jim made his usual argument that gasoline futures prices are lower. (He also made his usual comment that anyone who's been fired can "immediately" get a new job.) The judge and Josh pounced on Jim for saying that the lower gas effect "hasn't shown up on the pump yet." After telling Josh to "breathe," Jim said that he hadn't "fully" appeared yet, prompting the judge to roll his eyes: "Well, you didn't say 'fully'." sometimes observations are adjusted on the fly).

Josh Brown said that "the safe way to trade this year" is to buy stocks at a VIX of 30-34 and sell them at 20; a strategy that worked "perfectly".

Judge announced the name of the new AAPL analyst at MS. "We called Morgan Stanley, asking if Ms. Huberty left the company, if she changed coverage, and we're waiting for a response," the judge said.

As Jim spoke, the Nasdaq was down 26% from its 52-week high (because the entire team couldn't provide viewers with that information in an hour-long show).

In Thursday's (7/21) halftime report, Jim Lebenthal said CLF's earnings will be a "win-win" if the share price in Friday's earnings doesn't "respect" the results, the company will simply buy plus.

The judge said the shares "fell 43% in 3 months." Jim said that he increased 200% in 2 years. The judge said: "Our viewers may not have the luxury of being on the name for the last two years, or a few years, or any length of time."

Josh Brown said you should think about REITs "strategically," that everyone should have some, but it's not always "yes or no REITs." He cautioned that REITs are not taxed on dividends, but on ordinary income rates.

Brenda Vingiello said there is "no question" that AMT will continue to be a "relevant" REIT.

Jim said it's long CPT; he didn't seem too keen on REITs, but this is the one he picked.

Jim said the average age of cars on the road is 12.2 years, "a record." (Probably going up since dealerships don't have enough cars to sell.)

Brenda Vingiello has called INTC "a company everyone loves to hate" but "ultimately" sticks with it because it's "incredibly cheap."

At one point, Jim said, "I don't even know how much the Nasdaq is below its peak; maybe Josh does, maybe someone else does."

The judge went on to talk about the importance of SNAP earnings (laughter) at the end of the day.

'The worst is probably over'

Jenny Harrington and Rob Sechan looked at contrasting views on the stock market on Wednesday (7/20), while Joe Terranova... as he often does... tried to make a compelling case for both sides.

Jenny said she's been thinking about the current rally and "the nuance that this could last."

His conclusion? "I think the worst is probably…probably over now," Jenny said.

Rob, however, shrugged, "I think we still believe this is a rally you should sell", predicting it will be "short lived".

Jenny said that it's somehow "too dangerous" (laughs) to "wait carefully for a big setback." Instead, long-term investors should "wait."

But Rob said it should be "inverted in context" which means sticking to long names like AAPL, CRM and MSFT, but other names are "Kenny Rogers names" which obviously are the ones you need to know when... and when. ... (Yes).

Sechan, however, suggested "lay back now" because it looks like another rally that fades until the Fed pivots.

(So, in other words, each person's comment that looks a lot like the comment in...winter.)

Joe claimed that "the only thing" that hasn't been priced into the market is an "apocalyptic deep recession" and even said that "first time momentum is back in the bulls."

Despite these seemingly positive comments, Joe cautioned that "your time horizon needs to be short."

He said he doesn't think the last 3 days are a "March 2009 moment." Instead, he believes the market will "blink" around 4,000.

Jenny said with a straight face that "I don't look at the charts."

The judge said that Mark Newton might be getting used to the idea that the bottom is inside. (#last3hoursoftape)

'Nothing is falling off a cliff'

It's a market for absolutely nothing... but the Fast Money Halftime Report is sure to air a TV show every day of the week.

The judge managed to fill time on Tuesday (7/19) with Jim Lebenthal, who (stop if you've heard this before) once again found himself pushing back a wall of skepticism from others, including the judge.

One discussion was about the prospect of a "pivot."

"Are we so sure that the Fed's pivot is bullish for the market beyond one day?" Josh Brown asked.

Stephanie Link said we are "a long way" from 2% inflation, "who knows if they will change in September."

Brown said we are "perhaps too confident" in how many "open positions" there are or will continue to be.

Anastasia Amoroso said that 2% inflation is a "dream" and that the Fed needs to "reduce demand much more than expected."

Jim insisted that statistics show that "as jobs are laid off, people find immediate replacement work."

Finally, the judge came up with his favorite angle to intimidate Jim. "Nothing he said in terms of relocation has anything to do with the direction of the stock market in the next 10 months. Simply. He has. No," the judge said.

Jim said, "Earnings are now projected to fall off a cliff," but "right now, nothing is going off a cliff."

Weiss claims she could get a comedy gig if she wasn't on Halftime Report

In a rather sleepy episode of Monday's (7/18) halftime report that neither affirmed nor proved anything, the judge felt that the entire panel seems to think, whatever long-term optimism is expressed, that stocks continue to fall.

Joe Terranova indicated early on in the show that he's suddenly interested in "techies", for whatever reason. (Bottom line: he thinks the stock will go up "a little more.")

The judge tried to transition from Joe to Steve Weiss by saying that Weiss "is moving away from risk." Weiss apparently took issue with this characterization, stating that he was "surely right" to leave "at the beginning of the year", every stock he sold is lower than when he sold it, now he gets to "pick" the really good stocks, etc. 🇧🇷

"No one suggested that he was wrong in the market," the judge said.

"I'm not a pessimist by nature," Weiss insisted, explaining that if he wasn't on this show, he would be "proudly doing a sitcom."

Joe, for his part, said the market had priced in "a shallow recession" but had a "tradable bounce."

“I think we could see 4,800 sometime in 2023,” Joe said.

Weiss said the time to buy is "maybe 5 months, maybe 4 months."

Sarat Sethi referred to Weiss (calling him "Weiss" during the show) as "Mr. Optimistic".

The referee's guest in overtime for the first 15 minutes was Jim Cramer; it was unreachable.

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overtime dubbing
Tom Lee in 'permabull'

In extra time on Friday (7/15), Tom Lee was once again... upbeat.

Lee said "most" people want to sell the scam, but believe the anticipation of inflation or interest rate hikes is "settling down or reversing." (We hear "turn around" several times from Lee.)

Lee forecast a "pretty strong" second half for the stock.

"I think the upside risk is much greater now than the downside risk," Lee said.

"I am on the side that stocks have bottomed out," he added.

The judge then asked Malcolm Ethridge if this is "melancholy" or not.

“I think my main concern here is that the Fed starts to share the same permabull sentiments as Tom and eases off a bit,” Ethridge said.

However, Lee asserted that the market is operating under a "very central narrative" that a "hard landing" is coming and that inflation is "locked in", but the June data suggests it is not so "locked in".

In fact, "I think the bubble is in hyperinflation fears," Lee said.

"I don't know what numbers Tom is looking at," Ethridge shrugged.

It's okay, Thomas. #They are jealous #You were right #Not necessarily now, but you were right

Ethridge used the term "extortion" in terms of increasing the supply of housing so that landlords "stop extorting rent from people."

In a half-time report with virtually no news ("virtually" being nice), Rob Sechan actually claimed that the day's data indicated a "Goldilocks environment," though he cautioned that "much of it is really sensitive to commodity prices." gasoline".

Sechan believes that "we are still in a downtrend" but that this is a rally to sell.

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'You make this case repeatedly, and it literally is repeatedly-'

In case you missed it, as this page did, the judge (who is supposed to be an effective communicator) posted a quirky Jim Lebenthal-related tweet this week that Jim didn't quite get.

In the Interval Bulletin this Thursday (7/14), Judge clarified.

Jim insisted: "I've never seen a recession where the job market was so strong."

Speaking of CSCO, Jim said...again...that "this decade is just getting started with supply chain relocation."

"You make this case over and over again, and it's literally over and over again..." The judge sighed.

"Because it keeps coming out," Jim said.

"-of this relocation phenomenon that will have a dramatic short-term impact on the stock market," the judge continued.

The judge then told Jim that there was still no open ground at Intel's Ohio factory, "so we won't be meeting there this Saturday morning."

"That's what your tweet meant. I didn't know what your tweet meant," Jim said.

"That's what it meant," the judge said, as if he really was going to meet someone, anywhere, for breakfast on Saturday morning.

Exasperated, the judge wondered if there was "SOMETHING" that would make Jim negative.

"I've been punched in the face every day this year," Jim insisted.

Has anyone on CNBC ever praised strategists?

What made us laugh the most in Thursday's (7/14) halftime report was the idea,And you know it HAS to be truethat Savita Subramanian was silently watching the episode from somewhere, rolling her eyes and obviously frowning.

The judge announced at the start of the show that Savita had lowered her goal from 4,500 to 3,600. Josh Brown shrugged, saying that Savita is just "reflecting reality" and "trying to catch up."

Things then turned from Savita to an old spat as Steve Weiss said there are "two ways to look at this market" one being "the way you want things to be" with an "upbeat and optimistic", which sounded like a possible reference to Jim Lebenthal.

The judge said, "Jim fell back in his chair. He literally fell back in his chair when you said that."

"He can drop all he wants," Weiss said.

"The only reason I did this is because we all say the same thing," Jim said.

"Jim, Jim, I'm talking… we're not really," Weiss stated.

"No, we're saying the same thing we've been saying all year," Jim insisted.

Drawing a curious parallel, Weiss said: "This is one of the easiest markets to analyze that we've seen since I've been in business. 2008 was another one."

"The Fed is just getting started," Weiss explained, adding that Savita is "very high" and offering, in contrast to Josh Brown, that Savita is "somewhat emotionally invested" in his S&P target.

'Most of the time, they're wrong'

When Jim Lebenthal's onshoring was not the topic of discussion on Thursday's break (7/14), Jenny Harrington was giving a 4-point speech (we can't handle more than 3) in which she talked about how you can "channel your Warren Buffett inside" (laughs).

Jenny said that when she was an intern in 1986, her workshop looked at 20 years (laughs) of forecasts from the "top 120 (laughs) strategists and technicians" and found, with rare exceptions like Elaine Garzarelli in 1987, "for the most part, not they are right".

The judge said that we received the "Bostic bomb" (laughter) on Wednesday.

The judge simply won't ask if the stock market fears inflation or recession.

Of donuts stopped in Maine at 3:00. to the shelves of Gatorade supermarkets, everyone featured in the Halftime Report has turned into economic hounds this year. (Wouldn't that be a better use of your time analyzing companies instead of trying to make macro calls that everyone else is doing too?)

Joe Terranova in the Wednesday (7/13) halftime report offered: "I think people are writing off that rate hikes don't work. They are working."

The judge, of course, didn't bother to ask Joe what "work" means.

If Joe wants to say "work" because gas prices have gone down in recent weeks, that's fine.

When did 1 of the 3 Federal Reserve mandates become LOWER GAS PRICES!!!!!!!!!?

What really matters is 1) whether gas is still the same proportion of people's spending as it was 3 months ago, and 2) whether the price cuts are seasonal or permanent.

For those who haven't been awake in the last 6 months, the judge said Tom Lee believes this will be the last "extra ugly" CPI impression. (And if it doesn't, we're pretty sure it will be next.) (And which is better: does inflation go up 9% and stay there for 5 years, or does inflation go up 2% for 5 years in a row? ?)

In all the time Judge spends complaining about Jim Lebenthal's basically optimistic thesis, he never asks if inflation is a giant effect mistaken for a cause, a common mistake on Wall Street.

It doesn't matter what the CPI says; it's always the peak of inflation is behind us

Mike Farr, on the other hand, in some of the best comments of the day in Wednesday's (7/13) halftime report, said he doesn't know why people are so "desperate" to say that inflation is "coming to a peak". ", which he likened to saying "the forest fire is slowing down a bit."

Steve Liesman said that Farr is right, "what really matters is the uncertainty."

Liesman said what Wednesday's number means is that a Fed that wants to see 3 straight months of inflation improvement needs to "reset the account."

Steve told Judge that he doesn't know what the Fed gets out of a shift between meetings in August.

Bryn Talkington said he knew what the CPI would be because "for the last 3 days," the White House press secretary "as well as Biden" told us "that this inflation number is going to be very high."

The judge asked guest Jeremy Siegel what the Fed should know. Siegel said Jay Powell needs to "look to the future." Siegel added: "I think most of our inflation is behind us," then said the Fed will have to "turn around" after 75 points because "the economy is really slowing down."

The judge asked Jim Lebenthal about DAL. Jim said there is "no drop in consumer demand" and business and international travel is on the rise. Jim said it's a good move if demand "holds steady." The judge said the margins were below recent guidance and questioned how there will be a "big increase" in jet fuel prices. Jim pointed to the recent drop in oil.

"I have a lot of exposure to agriculture. It's not working," admitted Joe Terranova.

The judge said Mike Mayo has only "very moderate" enthusiasm for bank profits.

The judge disagrees with Jim (so obviously Jim is wrong)

At the beginning of the halftime report on Monday (11/7), Liz Young was sorting out how the immediate stock market will go down in history.

"This week we return to the rate story," said Liz.

The judge said earnestly that "it's hard to overstate the stakes."

Things got a bit dark when the judge turned to Joe Terranova, who opined, "I still think there's a clear economic contraction right now."

That wouldn't sway Jim "Onshoring" Lebenthal, who sees positive trends and basically no job losses in the economy.

Jim said that, looking to 2023, he believes earnings estimates "should remain intact due to supply chain setup and infrastructure spending."

He thinks the "malaise" will stop when "the Fed turns around," probably in a few months, according to Jim.

"I have a problem with that point of view," Judge said, explaining that Jim and Joe Terranova's points of view are "diametrically opposed." And that "the data suggests that Joe is correct in this view" of an ongoing recession.

"I just don't get it," Judge added, describing Jim's view as a Fed flip and "all of a sudden the economy is going to explode." The judge said that if the Fed changes, "it is because the economy has forced its hand by being too weak."

"I'm reporting the facts here, okay," Jim said, pointing to the supply chain on land.

"No... I don't buy that argument," the judge said.

Jim insisted that there are "no signs of cracks" in the labor report.

But the judge said Jan Hatzius says the job market is "talking."

I could do the same panel in October; Jim, Brian Belski and Tom Lee will be bullish, Weiss will be bearish, Joe will forecast a U...

In the Monday (11/7) halftime report, Joe Terranova said that if you are a "cyclical investor", the Fed is not your friend, because they don't want the "Roaring Twenties" to happen.

The judge said the Fed would have wanted the Roaring Twenties to happen if it weren't for inflation.

Joe said it's clear to him that the Fed will try to stamp out any "accelerated demand."

Jim Lebenthal returned to the debate, saying (as he did throughout the spring and summer) that the people who were laid off by Peloton have "jobs for them."

Joe said that Jim is looking for a "pause" rather than a "flip" from the Fed.

Steve Weiss has said that he appreciates Jim's rose-colored glasses, which Weiss said Jim never seems to "take off".

The two of them interrupted a couple of times. "Do you get paid by the word?" Jim asked Weiss. Jim said that what should "terrify" us is people losing their jobs, and that's not going to happen.

The judge insisted that there is one case (Joe's case) that is "fact" and there is "a large part" of Jim's case that is frankly "fantasy."

Joe insisted that we are in "Classic U-recovery" (it is "classic" even though it hasn't been seen in "decades").

Brian Belski admitted, "oh, by the way" to no one's surprise, "we're bullish." (He also claims this is a "generational opportunity" to buy stock.)

'Transitional' Is Back: Inflation Is Cured In 3 Weeks (Partly Because Apparently Nobody Is Interested In Eating Anymore)

Tom Lee, who like everyone else on Break Report hasn't missed a beat in 2022 (see below), was adamant on Friday (8/7) that the second half is "setting up" to be strong, due to "too many catalysts". in the place".

"The real massacre happened on June 10," Lee explained, but commodities and real estate have "strengthened" since then.

The judge asked how Lee can be sure that the fall from power is "sustainable." Lee gave a long answer about the "whip effect" (Zzzzzzz) and, more importantly, how the price increases caused by the war in Ukraine seem to be reversing and how things people thought were "sticky" are more (uh oh) "transients". ".

The judge asked Lee if he agrees with his FundStratter partner Mark Newton that there is one more leg to go before the S&P recovers for good. Lee wavered like Legg'o my Egg'o and did not take a position. Lee said that he would be "buying the technology here" as well as "buying the bass" (whatever that is).

Without a doubt, Lee has been the king of the bull market since 2008, and this page will give him the benefit of the doubt for a long time.

And we hope that his optimistic prediction is correct.

But some of his views in 2022 smack as much wishful thinking as in-depth analysis.

Lee said gas could drop to February 2020 levels, and actually stated with a straight face that there are "piles" of protein foods out there, so food prices could be falling, so there's "more money in your pocket of the people".

Evidently Voyager Digital has tentacles inside the range report

As it did a day earlier with Jon Najarian (see below), the judge's break report on Friday (7/8) took on Voyager Digital with Tom Lee, claiming that Voyager made a $6 million investment in Lee's FundStrat to "to be the exclusive provider of FundStrat in the US." co-worker."

The judge asked Lee to "expand" the details. Lee said Voyager has been a "good business partner for us" and has made a "sub-sub-minority good with less than 10% investment in our company." (But that had to be cleared up moments later.)

"It had no effect on our business...just unfortunate that it happened," Lee said.

The judge asked if the value of the investment was reduced to zero. Lee said the investment "wasn't in FundStrat, it was made for the other existing shareholders." (Somehow this resulted in "less than 10% investment in our company".)

We have to give the judge credit here. All we know about this Voyager entity is that it is possibly having some dispute or clarification issues with its bank. The judge's disclosures should indicate, for anyone who thinks Halftime Report panelists are making 100% (or, frankly, any %) of their income on daily stock market calls, well...

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In July 2015, panelists were concerned about the Fed's “normalizing” (laughter) rates with a September hike.

One of the curious things about the CNBC Halftime Report is that every panelist in July basically uses the same tone, positive or negative, that they were articulating in February.

Jim Lebenthal on the Friday show (8/7) insisted that the good news is good news for the economy/stock market, although he said the Fed will have to "back off" for this to be more than a stock market recovery. values.

"All highs are suspect," Jim cautioned, before adding, "There is reason to believe inflation has peaked. Period."

Honestly, okay... but we remember hearing it from various voices probably in February, March, April...

Kevin O'Leary stated that the "softer landing narrative" is more "prominent" than it was 3 weeks ago.

O'Leary said he doesn't see any signs of a recession; he thinks supply chain woes are "getting a little better," according to the empty Gatorade shelves.

This is interesting because a few weeks ago Jeremy Siegel stated that we are probably already in a recession. (So ​​whether or not we are basically depends on the last 3 hours of tape.)

O'Leary said he thinks the $6 trillion printed in 30 months "is still circulating in the economy."

Jim Lebenthal again went back to his curious topic of "supply chain relocation" and all the factories being built at the US Dead's Fare Thee Well pay-per-view concerts crying out for Steve to do that work for special concerts by other bands), effectively dismissed this notion of deglobalization a few weeks ago (see below).

Kevin O'Leary said that ARK had a "phenomenal week".

If you're wondering what the heck all this crap about crypto references is, you're not alone.

While we had hoped that the judge would be able to return from vacation to command the half-time report before the next recession (that's right, theFollowingrecession, not the apparent current one), his lukewarm return on Thursday (7/7) came into play during a late-show talk about Voyager Digital.

The judge said that Market Rebellion (this is the Najarense company that must be announced at the beginning of each program) was an investor in Voyager Digital; "We need to discuss this," he told Jon Najarian.

Doc said that Steve Ehrlich was wrong to call Doc "partner" in a YouTube video; Doc said that he was just a "shareholder."

The judge asked Doc if Market Rebellion received referral fees from Voyager. Doc said, "I can't comment on that right now." (Not exactly a denial.)

Doc reiterated that he was "never a partner" in Voyager Digital, but "I still own a pretty significant part of this company."

Frankly, Judge's persistence on this matter was one of his strongest moments of 2022. (No, we're not asking Doc for questioning; instead, we've been hearing a lot of crap about the cryptocurrency industry for nearly a decade.) . on The CNBC Shows and viewers need to hear the bad and the ugly, as well as the good).

Doc referred to Sam Bankman-Fried as "probably the biggest guy in crypto." And the Winklevi?

Doc said he liked bitcoin at 18,000 and ethereum at 1,000.

fast money evaluation (64)

If there is no V-shaped recovery, why rush to buy something?

Jenny Harrington in the Thursday (7/7) halftime report suggested that the stock market is "at peace" (laughter) with the Federal Reserve.

Explaining what this means, Jenny claimed: "I'm 47 years old, I can't eat a pint of ice cream every day without problems like I used to, I'm not happy about it, but I'm at peace." it's."

This is a curious analogy.

Jenny said "at peace" about 7 times.

Jenny predicted that this will not be like the "bear markets of the past" in that there will not be a V-shaped return, but instead "we will bounce off the bottom".

The judge said earnings forecasts remain "stubbornly high" and cited Oppenheimer's S&P target of 4,800 (versus 5,330).

Josh Brown said finishing the year at 4800 would be a "big, big win for the bulls."

Brown said companies cutting guidance generally "haven't happened yet," which is why the estimates remain as high as they are.

Brown said the rally appears to be based on "peak inflation" occurring in the past.

While it's unclear if he's "at peace" with what's happening, Jon Najarian said he didn't want to throw the "flag" for this week's rally.

"It's more or less hopio," said Doc.

Grandpa Steve Weiss said he bought QQQ "today and this week," though he calls the market "treacherous" because, in part, "QT hasn't started yet."

Weiss predicted that the 10-year yield "keeps rising."

The judge asked Jenny Harrington about the earnings estimates and whether 230 is possible. Jenny suggested that it's possible a stock rotation could keep that number afloat, but Josh Brown kept interrupting.

Weiss said he had dinner last week with Lee Cooperman (and suggested the judge may not have been invited) and said Lee's winning number is $195.

How many times do we hear the baby being thrown out with the bathwater in this episode?

Things got a bit contentious at the halftime report on Thursday (7/7), when the judge asked the panelists for their opinion on semiconductor stocks.

Steve Weiss has said that companies have "overstocks" of chips, but they won't admit it. Weiss said that NVDA is still "ridiculously expensive." Josh Brown said that all semi-companies are moving "one step at a time."

Jenny Harrington insisted that AMAT is one of the "big companies" in semi-space, one of those, unlike NVDA, that has a "fair valuation." Brown shrugged that it's the "same graph" as the others. Jenny said you have to "analyze" all the babies thrown out with the bath water. Then Steve Weiss chimed in and said that Jenny is choosing a "moment in time."

Jenny said that "all of you" were "excited" about buying "sparkling" semi-stocks earlier in the year. Weiss insisted that "it's not true."

Jenny said “seriously”, they had discussions about QRVO and NVDA. "It's when you BUY things," said Jenny.

Weiss said that's good for someone who always needs to invest; he does not need to make "excuses" to take office.

The judge asked Weiss if he was long any of the banks and short XLF. "I don't want to pay taxes," Weiss asserted, a notion this page pointed out really doesn't make sense when it comes to business decisions.

Josh Brown: White House in 'fantasy land' on energy; 'shameful' leadership

Viewers who stayed after A Block of Tuesday's unjudged halftime report (7/5) got their money's worth from Josh Brown's assessment of the energy situation:

“Pretty much everything that Biden and his economic advisers have to say about the energy sector, the energy problem, how to solve it, uh, is disgraceful,” Brown said. "Uh, there really is no leadership from the White House on this issue. They live in a fantasy land where you can go on Twitter and yell at gas station owners to lower the price, not understanding that gas station owners barely make any money. ". That's why they sell chewing gum and tobacco... opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was laughable."

Joe Terranova, who for some reason was obsessed with whether the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the day in the green, said that if the Biden administration wants to help Americans, it should lift the tariffs, that's the "low-hanging fruit."

Bryn Talkington said energy and some high-growth companies can "both succeed." He said he would wait a few weeks to buy power because he believes there could be negative activity due to the "rhetoric" of Joe Biden's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia.

'The false trend is that ARK shares are going up'

Jon Najarian in the halftime report on Tuesday (7/5) said that Europe appears to be in a recession, and it is "likely" that there will be one in the US as well.

In fact, Doc said that we could have "textbooks" (laughs) (Zzzzzzzz) written on the Fed and government approach to inflation in the 2020s.

Doc said consumer spending has slowed "dramatically" in some areas.

Joe Terranova argued (again) (Zzzzzzzz) that "time" is the enemy rather than price. (So ​​why do we need a daily TV show of this stuff?)

Josh Brown mentioned a defense industry ETF and said that "we are in a world of war, perhaps a permanent war," with individual NATO countries "arming up."

Bryn Talkington said that ZM and RBLX have been making "higher lows".

Brown said he's adding to the energy positions because that's the winner beyond the short term. "The false trend, no offense to anyone, is that ARK shares are going up. That's counter-trend... which has no legs," Brown said.

Steve Liesman, who for 7 years this past weekend was the pay-per-view emcee for the Grateful Dead's Fare Thee Well shows and, frankly, did a sensational job, said it looked like every panelist had "burnt burgers en la playa."

What happened with
os 'Roarin' 20s '?

The halftime report on Friday (7/1) provided an interesting contrast to the second half outlook.

The often talkative Jenny Harrington said: "I don't think we're going to have as bad a second half as we did in the first... The bottom line is you're buying a lot cheaper today than you did in January." ."

Jim Lebenthal also said he was optimistic for the second half. He said there must be a "reason" for this and said inflation "has peaked."

Jim also cited "supply chain relocation" over the next few years as "too powerful a force" to ignore.

Jim said, "This is not where we were 15 years ago."

On the other hand, Pete Najarian said he is seeing "a lot" of call buying on the VIX.

And while Jenny defended oil, Rob Sechan said he agrees, but believes trading should be kept on a "short leash".

In a nonchalant endorsement, Sechan said you can own banks "surgically" without owning "the whole industry."

Jenny Harrington, quoting Mike Mayo, said that even people who spend "100% of their days" investigating a handful of banks "get it wrong" in 2009.

Jenny also said we've "lost sight" of how, in the last two years, we've "turned all these chip companies into stories" when they're all "cyclical commodities."

'Probably at least a year' until people stop complaining about gas prices

Jon Najarian in Thursday's (6/30) halftime report said he is “mostly” looking at 10 years.

Doc said people don't think the Fed has the "common sense" to keep interest rates higher. (Well, "wit" is one term for that...swatting flies with a baseball bat is another.)

Doc said that getting inflation under control will take "probably at least a year." He is looking for a "mild recession."

Perhaps he was joking, but Frank Holland indicated that he had not heard of the famous 50 Cent option trader.

If you have a long-term perspective, 1980 is a good time to buy (just be careful in October 1987)

For those looking for indicators...

Josh Brown in the Thursday Halftime Report (06/30) said there were 3 times (let's talk about a huge sample size) that stocks and bonds had 2 consecutive negative quarters. It was in 1980, 1981 and 2008.

Brown said that "unfortunately, on all three occasions," bonds outperformed stocks in the following quarter.

He cited human resources as a sign that consumers may be in trouble. (Steve Weiss prefers TGT's double disappointment.)

Brown said it's "really fascinating" that many "libertarian voices" in the cryptocurrency market are now "calling" for some kind of regulatory oversight.

Maybe people can "nibble" on something more than those $3 Maine donuts at 3:00 p.m. m.

At the break on Thursday (06/30), Jon Najarian bought bitcoin and ethereum and predicted that those are "the two that survive." (What about those cryptocurrencies that were invented in Fast Money episodes?) He said that he got out of cryptocurrency stocks.

Bryn Talkington said that there has been "a lot of carnage" in the cryptocurrency world. He mentioned "3 analogues" hitting the space which, oddly enough, included "Bernie Madoff sprayed in there."

Bryn said there is a "high" probability that technology multiples will have to fall.

Bryn said that he bought LEN, believing that something would have to "fall off a cliff" for the numbers to not come out.

It also bought GM, "worth a position... at these prices." But Jon Najarian said that he sold his GM calls. Doc said GM and F aren't selling $39,000 EV trucks; Actual prices are typically $70,000 to $100,000, so they are selling a "much more expensive vehicle."

Josh Brown said he "happily" sold to GM. He doesn't hate at 30 and said there isn't much risk in buying with 2 straps.

Jason Snipe said you can "start looking for areas of growth" and "nibble." He also brought up the term "dollar cost average," which always means that we think we're probably going to go down anytime soon.

In what must be hyperbole, Josh Brown said that TSM "is structurally the most important corporation on the planet."

Doc said that he apparently bought the CLF because someone else was buying the calls.

When stocks go up, it's the free market; when they fall, it's the fed's fault (continued)

In Wednesday's (6/29) halftime report, hosted by Melissa Lee, Joe Terranova identified every problem under the Tuscan sun.

Joe said the biggest negative is not "price" but "timing," stating that we've been "conditioned" for too long to expect V-shaped rallies. This time, "it's a U. It's not going to come back quickly." .

(But really, if you're so worried about markets not going up fast enough, won't people start downloading quickly when they believe the same thing, and then we won't have a V anyway?)

Later, Mel asked Joe if it was time to buy Big Tech. Joe said that if you don't already have these names, "what else are you waiting for", but now, they can be a way to "miss less".

Joe also said that all of our economic/market problems are "self-inflicted" because "these are all policy mistakes" (Oh, that one again). (What policy told people "ABSOLUTELY NOT BE A PILOT/SAVOR/TRUCK DRIVER/NURSE/IRS WORKER/SEMICONDUCTOR FACTORY EMPLOYEE/RESTAURANT EMPLOYEE"?)

He added that "there is such a divisive nature in the country."

Ultimately, Joe said he would not buy a Cruise stock with a $9 billion market cap and $30 billion in debt, saying they would "obviously" have to sell shares.

Liz Young said she can "get in" on Big Tech's operations now, but she doesn't have "high hopes" for a while.

TGT's perspective, compared to the line at Maine's $3 donut shop at 3 p.m. m.

Near the beginning of Wednesday's (6/29) halftime report, Steve Weiss said that "the best use of my time" right now is to "stage an intervention" for his bullish friends who are "addicted" to buying the dip. .

This time, Weiss didn't have Jenny Harrington around to argue, but Weiss still insisted, "The consumer is under siege."

He said the doubling of TGT's outlook in a short period of time shows the "speed" of the decline we are in.

In fact, we doubt many people have been buying the dip since May. In February and March, yes, absolutely.

Liz Young opened the show by saying that the market cannot sustain a recovery and that the idea that a possible recession is enough to kill inflation is a "very unanswered question."

Pete Najarian evidently feels the same way. "I've been buying puts all over the world," said Pete, who questioned the strength of consumers.

For those looking for a silver lining, Pete said they have "finally stopped" buying bearish options stocks from China.

Although he bought the GS for 312, Pete was excited about winning all these "prizes" by selling leads.

Liz said the way it works is the market is "generally bottom first," then the bottom of earnings, and lastly the bottom of the economy.

Phil LeBeau said he is "not sure" (translation: "doubt") if we will see any action from the FAA and Department of Transportation to punish airlines for cancellations, as Senator Bernie Sanders is demanding. LeBeau also said the lack of an air traffic controller is also affecting flight schedules. He said he wasn't sure the Sanders letter would gain "traction."

Steve Weiss questioned why Bernie Sanders is focusing on this topic with everything else that is going on. "There's nothing there," Weiss concluded.

Weiss' final trade was BITI, a cryptocurrency short.

Donuts do Maine a las 15h. ...

"I think we've bottomed out," Jenny Harrington said in Monday's report (06/27), stating that the consumer "isn't as bad off as people think."

Moments later, Steve Weiss said he's trying to find out "the veracity of Jenny's statement" that "the consumer is still going strong" (not Jenny's exact term).

Weiss said consumer confidence is at its lowest in 40 or 50 years and "I don't know how strong they can be" as 15% of all renters are behind on rent.

"The consumer is not strong. This is pure myth," Weiss concluded, emphasizing that the Fed is in tightening mode.

Later, Jenny had a chance to correct Weiss, but she was too nice. "I'm not an optimistic consumer. I'm an optimistic consumer about expectations," Jenny explained.

Jenny suggested that we find out if the consumer is "okay."

At one point, Jenny said she was at a donut shop in Maine that had a "line out the door" for $3 donuts at "3 o'clock" (in the afternoon). "People keep spending," Jenny insisted. (Yes, but at most donut shops, there aren't enough employees to keep the shop open at 3pm—that's the problem Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard have with their rate hikes.)

Weiss thought that Jenny meant 3 am instead of 3 pm, at least the second time she quoted or misinterpreted her comment.

Hmm, it won't overtake

Steve Weiss in the interval report on Monday (06/27) reiterated his market pessimism, pointing out the cycle in which the Federal Reserve finds itself.

Guest presenter Frank Holland said he wanted to "cut" liquidity given the volume of the market on Friday. Weiss said they are talking about "two different types of liquidity" and that the Fed is withdrawing "liquidity that lubricates the economy."

Weiss said Friday's liquidity "doesn't make sense" in terms of the "big picture."

Holland told Weiss that Tom Lee thinks inflation is "a bit overblown." Weiss wondered where the "news" is about Lee being optimistic and "trying to find something to support him."

Weiss insisted that while inflation may come down, the Fed will still "overshoot."

The market has had some good days; no mention of average cost in dollars

Joe Terranova in the halftime report on Monday (6/27) invoked famous years.

Joe said we had "extreme pessimism," something like "September or October 2008."

Joe thinks this is a "John Mayer Market" (laughs) where "we're waiting for the world to change."

Joe said he "didn't hit a lot" at the start of the year, but he did hit a hit with his health.

Jon Najarian said we may be within 10% of the bottom, but he doesn't expect much market movement until the next CPI number, and if that number isn't good, we can "continue to climb this wall of worry."

Jenny Harrington said of COIN: "They're probably doing about a third of what they used to."

Doc said that COIN is a "real problem right now."

Doc praised XPO and credited Steve Weiss for liking the name.

Amy Raskin called to say that she cut off NKE due to the China lockdowns. Doc said they "are buying" 100, 95 and 90 options on NKE. Jenny said that she believes there is already "extreme pessimism" on NKE's price.

It was only 10 minutes, but Frank Holland put on a great show.

The first 50 minutes of the halftime report on Friday (6/24) were interrupted by coverage of the Supreme Court, during which the stock market was on fire.

Is it so hot that the bottom is in?

Jim Lebenthal, whose last name was pronounced "Leebenthal" by guest host Frank Holland, said it "cannot be answered at this time" whether it is a bullish or bearish rally.

"We have to wait until the June CPI comes out in two and a half weeks," Jim said. This page agrees.

However, Steve Weiss said: "I think this is a bear market rally." He said the market is in a "news vacuum" where negative information is not emerging.

Weiss predicted that the Fed would "overshoot" rate hikes. Jon Najarian disagreed (as does this page), noting that the 10-year went from 3.48% a week ago to 3.04% on Friday morning. He said someone is thinking that the Fed is "done" in September.

Amy Raskin said: "We should have a rally and we are doing it."

Degas Wright said he sees an "imminent recession" and that this is just a "relief recovery."

Doc predicted a "sideways market", not a 7% bounce next week.

Weiss said to "ignore" people asking to buy the dip.

NFLX an affordable luxury

It's been a bit of a week before the halftime report due to Fed testimony (although Wednesday's show wasn't actually pre-scheduled)…and let's face it, the judge isn't home this week.

ask Jim Lebenthal about that 4900 S&P target there's been a mountain of feedback.

On Thursday (06/23), guest host by Frank Holland when at least half the show was cut for Jay Powell's testimony, Josh Brown said the inflation "scare" may be "overblown" in relation to the NFLX . Brown suggested that NFLX and SBUX are two "affordable luxuries" people won't give up amid inflation.

Pete Najarian said he was scratching his head over the big XLE buy on October 52.

On Wednesday, guest host Missy Lee asked Joe Terranova about the GNRC. Joe said he's been holding on to this "terrible buy," explaining that sometimes you make a bad trade; "Like the banana that's been sitting on the counter for the past 6 weeks."

Bryn Talkington said: "I would never write Mark Zuckerberg off."

waiting for the buzz

In Tuesday's (6/21) halftime report, guest presenter Melissa Lee said that people have been saying that we haven't seen the “buzz” to the downside. (Actually, we've seen a lot of them... but whatever.)

Jon Najarian said his analyst is still predicting "lower lows." Doc said that we don't see volume on bullish days yet. He noted that he correctly labeled the reversal after the Fed's rally of the day.

Joe Terranova said that 6 to 9 months from now, the current market should look like a bargain, but the next few weeks depend on the White House decision on tariffs.

"I've been talking about this for months," Joe asserted (but one wonders why it's necessary). (Regular viewers already know he's talking about this... other viewers why would they care?)

Mike Santoli (who was probably on this show because he replaced the judge in overtime later on) noted that a "clouded" earnings outlook is not a "comforting" argument for continued pessimism, but it does help people.

Josh Brown bought ZM, noting that it's been about a year and a half since its peak, and he thinks the May low could be a "tradable low." He said it has a stop "just under 100". Brown said many "ARK-like names" dropped in May, not last week.

Joe said it's not a long ZM but it's a JOET candidate. He said he's one you want if you can demonstrate a "more diverse type of strategy" (laughs) (don't hold your breath) (#bidforTwitter?).

Doc pointed to the strong buying of put options on the XLE that began on June 6. He is looking for a "bounce" in that sector and has forecast "130 in a month" in crude.

Stephanie Link bought NKE, "quality for sale." Joe Terranova said he believes stocks already reflect a lot of bad news. Link also bought SBUX.

Guest Courtney Garcia said it is possible for the economy to get through the next few months without a recession.

Jon Najarian owns CZR and LVS calls and said people are flooding Las Vegas.

Answer: When CPI reports have an identifier of 5 or less, for more than 1 month

The judge on Friday's (6/17) halftime report asked Jason Snipe, "How will viewers know when it's time to buy?"

Snipe correctly said that it has "a lot to do with the CPI."

But again, Snipe recommended dollar cost averaging (translation: he thinks the market is going to be down for months) going forward.

fast money evaluation (65)

The 'Bear Market Retracement'

In the half-time report on Friday (17/6), the judge said that Michael Hartnett wants to "gobble up" the shares at 3,000.

But Jenny Harrington said it's "highly unlikely" we'll hit 3,000. “You should put money to work today,” Jenny advised, warning to be “very, very careful” not to wait for 3,000, which she said might not happen and if it did, it would be like March 2020.

(Be "very, very careful" about NOT buying shares? This is new for 2022.)

Jenny exclaimed about how we are closer to bottoming out now than we were in January or February and how this market "made sense" to her and how the market that didn't make sense to her was the one where PTON was trading at "178". (Actually, it looks like it never got that high.)

In fact, Jenny said earnestly that this looks like a "bear market retracement."

"I'm still worried," said Degas Wright, who sees a recession "on the horizon."

Pete Najarian said he's more "cautious" than "negative" and, as he always does, had a much greater say in what's going on in the land purchase than what's going on with his own intuition.

Pete cut right to the chase, albeit much later in the show, noting that the price of oil is "by far the biggest component of what we're seeing here," affecting things in a "monster way."

Clinging to some form of resistance/balance to this dreadful market, the judge said that Ron Baron is talking about a "huge" buying opportunity.

The judge also referenced FundStrat's Mark Newton (who was in overtime, see below) for the usual opinion that we are "almost bottoming out".

Judge said the market appears to be trading in a "deep recession."

The judge brought in Brian Belski for another round at the 4800 target (which is basically Jim Lebenthal's target as well). Belski insisted that the profits would not fall and even said twice in an "oh, by the way."

Belski insisted on a "second-half surprise that nobody is positioned for."

If 'jumping' is as bad as it can be for 'a while', then we're in luck.

In overtime, Jim Lebenthal predicted that "we're hanging around here for a while."

Jim also repeated one of his recent refrains, that for those who get laid off, there are "plenty of job offers."

The judge told Jim that earnings expectations "defy logic." Jim said that if he holds it for 1-3 years, he can make "fabulous" stock purchases today (although he is "discouraging" people from buying "Cathie Wood stock").

Jim advised people "an average dollar cost to join." (Translation: the market is likely to fall anytime soon.)

Mark Newton said he sees "a big risk/reward" given how much some shares have sold, though he thinks we could see 3,500 or 3,600 in the "next few weeks."

Jay PowellCathie Wood
should have retired last year

In the Thursday (06/16) halftime report, Jon Najarian declared Scott Minerd's theory about cryptocurrencies being canaries and stocks not falling until cryptocurrencies do, as "ridiculous."

Najarian said that the crypto market is worth around $1 trillion; he said the Minerd theory is just as ridiculous as when Minerd asked for $250,000 worth of bitcoins (we didn't know or remember that).

“We don't need to recreate Scott Minerd's career on the calls,” the judge said.

"Some people make those kinds of statements, Scott, to get headlines," Doc said, before using the term "ridiculous" for the fifth time (seriously) and offering to sell the Brooklyn Bridge judge.

The judge protested that perhaps Minerd was referring to market sentiment and the "risk factor." Josh Brown had to interrupt to say that he was right, but only about how this relates to the M2 money supply.

Last September, 'HE SAID A RATE INCREASE IN 2022!!!!!!!!!!!!'

In the break report on Thursday (6/16), Jon Najarian mentioned the upcoming 3-day weekend and how it could affect sales (in a negative way) towards the end of this week.

Josh Brown, who (as is so often the case) had to weigh in not on a select few stock market angles, but on every trade media story that circulated this week (OK, he didn't say anything about Revlon), emphasized: " It already feels like a recession", and arguing about that word is just "semantics". (Well, yes. That's how it works. Some department of economists takes over that word.)

(Overtime's Jeremy Siegel said we really are in a "recession," though it's not "official" at this point.)

Brown predicted a "blowout" in durable goods and called the idea of ​​a soft landing "laughable."

"We haven't seen the worst yet," Brown said.

Shannon Saccocia said we are "absolutely in no man's land."

fast money evaluation (66)

Unbelievable the kind of theories we hear due to a number of IPCs

Jim Lebenthal in Wednesday's (6/15) halftime report opened a hornet's nest of skepticism with his suggestion that we are entering a new paradigm of globalization.

“There is a long-term side effect of the pandemic, which is really powerful, and that is that supply chains move out of China, out of Russia, out of hostile countries, back here to the US and to the large region of North America. . Jim argued. "Building middle-class income back again: Ross Perot in the '90s had the idea of ​​a big suck of solid work abroad. They're coming back, all right, and that's a positive thing to look forward to."

"No, it is not. No, it's not,” said Steve Liesman, listening from a distance, saying “the idea of ​​deglobalization is bad for the stock market and bad for the economy…”.

"That's not what I'm saying," Jim said, correctly. (Note: Liesman seemed to be saying what he literally said, deglobalization is bad, but saying "the idea of" apparently made Jim (and viewers) think Liesman was hinting that that was Jim's point.)

“We have 1.7 billion Chinese workers working for us and now we want to reduce that. And we don't have enough workers to do half the things that Jim wants to do,” Liesman said. "God bless his thoughts on this. We don't have workers here, we don't have immigration. And if we deglobalize, that means smaller multiples in the stock market, deglobalization. Thank you."

Jim suggested that if we are "worried" about layoffs at Peloton, "keep them employed." (It's interesting all the central planning going on at CNBC this year, the people trying to push fares and workers where those people want them to be.)

The judge, practically in disbelief, said, "You talk about this, Jim, like it's going to happen in 10 minutes."

Jim said that wasn't what he meant; "We are in 2023 and beyond."

“That is not going to happen in 2023. You are not going to move everything to 2023,” the judge said.

"You're absolutely doing this right now. Are you paying attention to what Intel says?" Jim responded.

"Therefore, the economy will be completely transformed in the next 6 months, ladies and gentlemen," the judge declared.

"That's not what I'm saying, and you know it," Jim said.

"He didn't say that," Doc chimed in.

Why did the 75 basis points have to be reported in a WSJ article on Monday? Why not announce on Wednesday?

The judge was ruling out more than Jim Lebenthal's theories in Wednesday's (6/15) halftime report.

Joe Terranova said he expected a "twist" from Jerome Powell; "We need to hear from the chairman that the Fed is willing to raise rates between meetings."

"They won't tell you that," the judge scoffed.

"They do. They do," Joe insisted.

Steve Liesman said the answer to the question of how the Fed should work is "meeting by meeting."

Judge called the Fed meeting "incredibly important."

The judge and Jeffrey Gundlach on Overtime (see below) discussed the WSJ 75bp story that surfaced early Monday morning. Neither the judge nor Jeffrey addressed a curious question: why this information had to be released unofficially on Monday after business hours instead of in Wednesday's Fed statement. Is the Fed afraid that STOCK WILL GO DOWN A FEW POINTS (OH MY GOD!!!!!!) ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON?

Come on, Doc: If this is the end of NFLX, it's not because of 'Freevee'

Media executive Tom Rogers, who has often referred to "legacy media" in a negative light, said in Wednesday's (6/15) halftime report that Netflix will "continue" to have the "first position" in streaming and future tv broadcast.

Jon Najarian, who has resigned from most of his role at NFLX, stated that Freevee, the "former IMBD (sic stood for 'IMDB')", is a "category killer" and does not believe NFLX has the sales force to get to the ad-supported model fast enough, so it transferred its less than $2 million stake in NFLX to AMZN.

Rogers said Freevee is a "little thorn in the side of what drives Amazon."

The judge said that he heard many times about the death of the "inherited media".

David Tepper is obsessed with Powell's terminology (because if the observations were different, stocks would certainly have higher prices!)

Jeffrey Gundlach, guest star of Wednesday's post-Fed overtime (6/15), mentioned "credibility" several times. What if someone doesn't like the "credibility" of the Federal Reserve? Write to your congressman? Sign a new central bank? Convert your dollars to dogecoin?

The judge allowed Jeffrey to give a speech about Larry Summers recalculating today's inflation using the 1980s methodology.

Jeffrey made an interesting comment, suggesting that Jay Powell "has a reverse cause and effect" in stating that the Fed's "forward guidance" created the tightening conditions rather than the tightening conditions that led to the guidance.

The judge told Gundlach that David Tepper said in a phone call that "last time was ridiculous" regarding Jay Powell's 75 basis points on or off the table. (Speaking of cause and effect...)

Mistaking effects for causes, again (continued)

This page pointed out, repeatedly, that the judge simply doesn't ask panelists and guests whether the 2022 stock market fears 1) $29 hoodies at Old Navy or 2) a recession.

(which will obviously be smoothed out by a bunch of $600/$1400/$2000 government checks)


So our ears pricked up when the judge made a ruling in overtime on Tuesday (6/14) following Adam Parker's correct assertion that rate hikes won't "solve" some inflation problems.

The judge explained: "It doesn't help the supply chain problems, but it helps the lawsuit, which made the supply chain problems worse."

Now we are getting somewhere.

(Slowly. Glacially.)

Judge's use of the term "help" is curious.

It's like saying that "removing outfield fences, as well as infield seating to give infielders more room for foul balls, will make our pitchers better."

It's not making your launchers BETTER.

He is improving the stats of the pitchers.of your team AND of other teams- at the expense of calling.

So if people are happy to pay $3 for gaseven if it remains the same 10-20% larger portion of people's household budgets than it was before 2020,alright, whatever. Appreciate.

In the meantime, let's go back to the judge's comment. Parker had a great response.

"Then squash the economy and then cut rates again next year. Fantastic," Parker said.

"Is this really what you think will happen?" said the judge.

Parker didn't respond to that, but this page will.



These rates will go down, judge. Just wait.

Bitcoin a 'complete fraud'

The judge at Tuesday's (6/14) halftime report asked Steve Weiss if he is "100% effective."

Weiss asked if this is a "serious question."

The judge said it was a serious matter and he didn't know why Weiss was "concerned."

"I'm not the least bit worried about that," Weiss said.

The judge asked "What is relevant" if the Fed's conversation is not relevant. Weiss said what happens on Wednesday is not relevant to his perspective.

But in his most questionable call, Weiss predicted earnings would "really collapse." (Let's wait and see that.)

Weiss said valuations and fundamentals don't matter right now, just that we're in a "tighter credit cycle."

Then things really got good.

Weiss said, "When bitcoin trades to zero, I'll start investing in the market," because it's a "complete scam" with no "value" or "store of value."

Later, Bryn Talkington said that there are “plumbing issues” in the cryptocurrency market, but Coinbase is a place where investors can have confidence. He said it's a shame to have to fire new employees, but the company can't spend $6 billion on workers who "aren't doing anything."

Why not 300 points?

The euphoria of interest rate hikes (laughs) was taking over again in the breakdown report on Tuesday (06/14).

Josh Brown said that if the Fed were to raise 100 points, it would "immediately change the narrative" and create a "restoration of credibility" (laughs).

He said he wouldn't be "surprised" if that happened.

"I don't think 100 is going to happen," responded Steve Liesman, who said 75 is "very likely."

Liesman and Judge agreed that the Fed is just "trying to catch up with the Treasury market."

Liesman also said the Fed needs to catch up "in terms of credibility" (Snicker). (Come on, Steve: when the market is up, the Fed is too easy; when the market is down, the Fed is too easy... and when the Fed is too easy, EVEN LAZY CORPORATION can get it right!)

Liesman said the market's rate hike outlook is basically 275 points higher by the end of the year, which Liesman called "credible."

"Why nibble?" Brown replied.

"You need the Treasury market to work," Liesman said. (He might have said, "Instead of those silly mandates you hear about in congressional hearings, the Fed's job is simply to make sure banks have enough cash every morning.")

But what if he arrives too late and finds himself reduced to day-old loaves in the alley?

Reigning grandfather Steve Weiss, whose bear market outlook has easily been the Halftime Report Call of the Year so far, even though Weiss has missed weekly rallies and is supposedly a trade fair, but whatever, said on Tuesday (6/14) Halftime report that there might be a "rescue meeting" on Wednesday, but "you'll sell it."

Weiss said this is a bear market, and while Josh Brown, Steve Liesman and Judge were having a "great conversation," it "doesn't mean anything" regarding their investment prospects.

Weiss then opened up an admittedly excellent line: "I'd rather show up for a dinner reservation and miss the appetizer than show up a week early and wait outside the restaurant."

Weiss complained that "there is no capitulation so far," and if the Fed does 100, "who cares."

"Yes, inflation will go as low as the Fed can control it. But there will be elements that it won't be able to control," Weiss said.

fast money evaluation (67)

Jim's optimism has been a colossal disaster, but it may just be a matter of time.

Jim Lebenthal said in Tuesday's (06/14) halftime report that by the end of the year, the Fed will have done its "hard work."

Jim said the economy is taking a hit from China's lockdowns and Russian belligerence, saying the United States is "not in globalization mode anymore."

The judge went on to ask whether the Fed can "make it" or not. (Laughter)

Jim complained about the "mocking" he is receiving from Judge and others about Jim's S&P target, which Judge either repeated or asked Jim to verify.

The judge said the market is going against Jim's calls, which continues to push the judge back to those calls.

After the A block, the judge wondered what would happen if Jim and other bulls like Tom Lee were correct. Bryn Talkington said that you need to have a much wider "lens" than you have today.

Bryn pointed to something the judge never mentions, the midyear/sophomore cycle of a presidency. (That's a great point. Not all of those years are bad, so these year 2 or 3 theories don't always work, but many times year 2s are terrible, as is the case right now.)

Josh Brown said the "E" in P/E is uncertain enough that we don't know if Jim Lebenthal or Steve Weiss will be correct at the end of the year. But he said perhaps the safe move amid the uncertainty is to miss out on the "appetizer" Weiss mentioned.

Bryn Talkington said that "there are really really bad things going on, like the buy/sell functionality" (laughs); she mentioned "standard deviation events" (Zzzzzzzz) (Laughter).

Bryn said he cut a big winner, XLE; she was "early for this trade", but now it seems that "everyone is bullish on energy". Steve Weiss said that he is considering cutting OVV (Zzzzzzzzzzz).

Weiss said this is a good time to "clean the slate" and have dry powder for when the bottom is here.

Bryn Talkington's Final Trade was a… uranium options game.

fast money evaluation (68)

Making 'mistakes' instead of semiconductors

Well what do you know.

10 minutes after the halftime report on Monday (6/13), Joe Terranova and the judge picked up where Ron Insana left off at Power Lunch on Friday (see below).

Joe said, "I don't even know if 100 basis points at this point is going to do anything against inflation."

The judge agreed. "Well, obviously it's not going to do anything, they can go up like 200 basis points, it doesn't affect the supply chain one bit," the judge said.

"No," Joe agreed.

What's funny about this dialogue is that it came after Joe said "we're in the middle of an obvious fiscal and monetary (sic no 'a') mistake that was made in 2021 and now we're paying the price." "

And later, the judge cited a few examples where the bond market decided that the Fed's complaint was a "mistake."

The judge didn't have the heart to explain, or ask Joe, exactly what the "mistake" was. (OMG, stocks fell for a DAY after Powell spoke!) Joe was clearly implying that the Fed should have raised rates/QTed in 2021 and/or the government shouldn't have sent those $1,400 checks with no one Joe Biden/Donald Trump/Nancy Pelosi names on them... but at the same time, Joe is basically admittingthat such movements would not have changed the price of gasoline.

Joe is simply paying lip service, like a typical CNBC commentator, to a tired, bogus catchphrase. The Fed's job is to make sure banks have enough cash every morning. It is not capable of providing staff for restaurants and semiconductor factories.

Like Dale Mitchell taking the so-called Strike 3, Joe and Judge never weighed in on the next obvious question: what news will spur the oversold rally?

Low stock for 3 days; I have to assume that all the data is lies

The judge opened the halftime report on Monday (06/13) by asking Joe Terranova about how to position himself recently to play "offense" (laughs) in the stock market.

Joe protested, "I never said I was going to buy these hypergrowth stocks. I don't want to be in hypergrowth stocks. I said to play offense a little bit and do it with a very healthy respect for valuation." (Translation: more attacks for Docusign.) (This writer is long DOCU).

Joe also admitted that he talked about capturing "2½%" in the market.

Pete Najarian said a lot of people are buying a lot of puts (Zzzzzzzzzz).

Kari Firestone complained that "academics" had been going through the data and couldn't handle the numbers; she said she was concerned that the unemployment data might be "wrong."

Liz Young said Friday was terrible and Monday looks terrible, but "on some level I appreciate it" because she wants to "get it over with."

Kari Firestone said the market would be "relieved" with a 75 point rally. In overtime, the judge brought in the WSJ writer whose breaking story seemed to indicate just that.

It's so 'problematic' that they never talk about it, even during the Monday show.

In Monday's (6/13) halftime report, the judge told Joe Terranova: "The amount of leverage that exists in the crypto system that we don't yet know about is potentially problematic."

(Video) Paano mag- Loan sa Fast-Cash App - Honest Review

Joe agreed: "Very troublesome."

Joe said he saw Anthony Scaramucci at Squawk Box; Joe agrees with Anthony that blockchain works, "it doesn't mean Bitcoin has to hit a hundred thousand."

But the judge asked Liz Young about her first question/claim, crypto leverage. Liz said that this "exacerbates" the negative movements and she will continue to do so. (Which also didn't address the judge's question/statement. But whatever.)

Joe revealed that he was banned from TROW (Zzzzzzzz) and gave a speech about how the stops helped him save money. (He can also cost people money when, in decent markets, these stocks rally.) (#tradingthelast15minutesoftape)

Liz Young said that "there are still a lot of headwinds" for semiconductors, as if there aren't a lot of headwinds for... the entire market. But she likes cloud software.

fast money evaluation (69)

"I don't know if raising interest rates would solve any of the underlying problems that caused inflation"

You know that old saying about how something is repeated over and over again, and people start to believe it's true.

That's where CNBC viewers find themselves with regards to the inflation talk where, generally speaking, 1) it's not really inflation that matters, but how the stock market is doing, and 2) it's always the fault of the Federal Reserve, and 3) Judge and other presenters have absolutely no interest in perhaps divulging real truths on this subject.

In the Friday (10/6) halftime report, Jeremy Siegel told the judge that he agrees with Jim Cramer that the Fed "needs to take control of that narrative."

Siegel said he would recommend a base raise of 100 in June. (That's the ever-popular idea of ​​suppressing demand from your friends and neighbors so you can spend $1.50 on your gallons of gas.)

Viewers quickly learned why Jeremy recommends this option.

"You'd have a big sell-off and then a recovery," Siegel said. not only would the stock start to rise, butWe would have the BIG WHOOSH DOWN!

For good measure, Siegel concluded: "All the Fed's mistakes were made last year" and through the end of 2020.

Yes, Ok.

But look what Ron Insana said,practically in a whisperjust an hour later at Power Lunch.

"I don't know if raising interest rates would solve any of the underlying problems that caused inflation in the first place."

Oh. Now we are getting somewhere. Did you find out what?Rate increases may not have any impact on inflation.

But it gets better.

"The Fed could raise rates by 100 basis points at every future meeting, and still not give you more semiconductors, still not give you more jobs, still not give you more cars or more houses," Insana said. exactly the opposite."

Insana said the Fed will engage in a Volcker strategy or, in what increasingly seems like a perfect if tragic analogy, a "Vietnam-style strategy where you destroy the village to save it."

(Exactly. If they stop everyone from buying cars, no one will notice that the cars cost $89,000.)

Insana said he doesn't see what the government can do beyond "some kind of Marshall Plan to increase the supply of materials and finished goods that are in short supply."

He concluded: "We need more people. And again, the Federal Reserve can't print people."


(Sigh, this is the kind of comment that will get us kicked out of Princeton)

Sometimes we don't even know the difference between preferred stock and cattle.

But we get the feeling that the Federal Reserve, despite the "mandates" it is supposedly given by US lawmakers, can only deal with a select few types of internal financial problems (basically, ensuring that banks have enough money every day). the days). .. and not things that areFree market problems.

Asking senseless 100 basis point raises is like calling an electrician to your house to fix your plumbing.

The photo above this headline is a newspaper front page from October 9, 1974. That president stated that to "whack" inflation now, the country had to adopt his 10-point plan (not just parts, it had to be the thing at all). ). Item 9 was... yes, from a Republican President... a 5% "surcharge" (which is a tax increase) on those making $15,000 or more, reflected in the image above this article.

Point 1 addressed food: "To stop rising food prices, we must produce more food. And I call on all farmers to produce at full capacity."

Now this is deep.

fast money evaluation (70)

The judge had been saying for days that it seemed that the risk was positive this week.

Opening the halftime report on Friday (10/6), the judge gave the floor to the usually optimistic Jim Lebenthal, who said he did not want to ask a "snarky" question and simply invited Jim to share his thoughts on the market.

"This is going to suck now for a while," Jim admitted, before emphasizing, "I don't think this is the time to sell stocks."

Jim suggested that the gains are there. The judge said that the people who raised the earnings estimates had been "misled" over the last 3 months.

Josh Brown said that people who focus on profit miss the news. "It's not profit... The consumer is upset right now," Brown said. The judge went on to comment on the consumer investigation, prompting Brown to ask for permission to proceed "without hindrance."

Jim then asked Josh if he would recommend selling stock. Brown said he didn't and would advise people to "stop playing this game" of making market calls. Jim said, "Basically, you and I don't agree on everything except the conclusion."

Jim said that he likes to research and watch 8-Ks. "How are you doing this summer?" Brown asked.

"If you want to fight, that's fine," Jim said, but his bottom line seems to be no sell.

Not all recessions are the same

In the halftime report on Friday (06/10), Jeremy Siegel stated that "the market is already pricing in a recession in 2023."

Josh Brown interrupted and told Siegel, "I'm sorry. The average, the average recession correction since World War II, and I'm using your data, is negative 31%." prices in a recession".

"Well, I think we're looking at a mild recession," Siegel said, adding that Brown's numbers include some "huge" recessions like the one in 2008.

Brown then made an interesting comment about whether or not to own NFLX, that we've never had a downturn with this kind of onslaught of streaming and media services, so we don't have any guidance on whether consumers will abandon them.

Kevin O'Leary said he was buying more DOCUs because of the "use case" for the product. (This writer is long DOCU).

Announce the CPI now

The halftime report on Thursday (6/9) was decidedly low-octane.

As the judge continues to talk about the upcoming inflation data, Rob Sechan said he sees a "higher probability" of stocks falling on Friday rather than rising. There is still "a lot of tension," Sechan said, explaining that the market will be "very spooked" by signs of stagflation.

Steve Weiss said it's "completely binary," that the market goes up on a low inflation number and down on a high number.

Either way, he would "sell the market," Weiss said, except that he said at the end of the show that he would buy the FDX if the market went down.

The judge said that perhaps a lower number would take away some of the Fed's aggressiveness in September. Weiss insisted that the Fed still has "hard work" to do.

Jenny Harrington predicted that Friday's "surprisingly high" inflation numbers would trigger a bigger move in the S&P 500 than the surprisingly low numbers.

Josh Brown said that "most people" in the investment class would prefer a recession to continued inflation. Therefore, he does not expect "significant relief" if the CPI is 7.9% versus 8.1%. Judge's court where 8.3% is expected.

Jenny said the market needs to find the "right" multiple, but she's not sure what it is.

Weiss said: "What difference does the multiple make if earnings go down?"

Weiss predicted that the unloading of TGT goods will not help inflation; the margins will return in the fall.

Josh Brown said he bought FDX, saying he bought it for "technical" reasons and that the company is having its first "investor day" in 10 years, and Brown thinks they wouldn't call it that if they dropped the market. . Weiss agreed that FDX isn't doing an investor day to announce a profit cut, but such things tend to be "celebratory," but the question is how much is embedded.

Jenny said the notion of a "growth" company has been "muddled" in the last two years; it does not refer to companies whose share prices are rising.

Josh Brown said that he would "never buy an individual name again" in the Chinese Internet space, but sometimes there are opportunities and he would use KWEB.

The judge seems to think Joe is aiming too low.

In Wednesday's (8/6) halftime report, Joe Terranova said he believes active management is "recovering" and is trying to figure out "where potentially the next 2.5-3% is in the market."

"That's nothing. Is that all you're playing for?" The judge scoffed.

"In this environment?" Joe responded, saying that he's "listening to Steve Weiss" (laughs) (note: this is a chuckle for many reasons; we're not stating that Weiss's recent market outlook is incorrect) and that "maybe a slump is coming." of profits". .

Ylan Mui recounted Janet Yellen's testimony, which brought up Joe's favorite topic: China tariffs. The judge said Biden has a "little political problem" because "by the time" he lifts the tariffs, he will face criticism that he "caves" to China. Joe said that "the flip side" is that by maintaining the tariffs he is "acknowledging the effectiveness" of Trump's tariffs.

Joe noted that gasoline futures have reached an all-time high, but crude oil has not.

Joe is on CRWD, citing software bottom before market bottom (as of now) and pointing to 2008-09.

Ugh, looks like we've gone a few days without hearing 'fire and ice'

The judge in the halftime report on Wednesday (8/6) said that Jeffrey Gundlach prefers commodities to stocks.

Kari Firestone said that Gundlach "tends to be negative".

Grandpa Steve Weiss said that commodities are one of the "No. 1 gauges of inflation," so it's "kind of inconsistent" that Gundlach favors commodities while inflation is falling.

The judge asked Pete Najarian if VIX was under 24 years old. Pete said that he doesn't tell us anything about "intraday". Pete said that the key to the market is actually the "inverse 10 year ratio."

Kari Firestone said the market appears to be in "a bit of a sellers' strike."

Kari gave a confusing explanation as to why she owns RMAX, though she admitted she didn't hit the booming housing market during the pandemic. But she thinks that she is "extremely attractive" at the current level.

Weiss said this is "one of the most data-driven markets I can remember."

Weiss said he is "still bothered" by MSFT's announcement that the judge and others are shrugging it off as fx related. Weiss complained that TGT had "no control" over its guidance and should not have projected earnings. Pete Najarian said they "had to add something" to whatever the earnings outlook was.

Doc claims he knew TGT parking lots were a 'night and day' difference to other retailers

The judge in Tuesday's (7/6) halftime report actually said with a straight face, "The Super Bowl is this Friday," referring to the CPI report.

Judge made the same prediction he has made in recent days, suggesting that it "seems" to be "very difficult to be negative at that number."

Jon Najarian, on the other hand, threw water on this, saying he doesn't want to be "Debbie Downer" but if there's a "hot read" on Friday, "we've given up most of that gain" from the last 2 weeks.

However, most of Tuesday's show was focused on the mighty Target, which suddenly started having monthly disasters.

The judge said that the TGT news sounds like "Cornell just wet the kitchen."

Stephanie Link insisted that the TGT news is not surprising because the "theme" for a year now is that consumers are switching from goods to services. "The consumer continues to spend," Link said.

Link predicted "aggressive" sales promotions from TGT. "I wouldn't touch a provider right now," Link said.

Jon Najarian curiously said of TGT: "You look at the parking lot, Scott, and you compare them to other retailers, and it was night and day."

Doc predicted that discount retailers will get large inventories and be "much more stable" than big box retailers.

Pete Najarian was already backing TGT because of 1) the way he rallied in the morning and 2) he thinks it's a "second quarter issue" and not a "second half issue."

Usually someone who sees the bright side, Jim Lebenthal declared the TGT debacle and its implication of higher inventories "good for inflation."

The judge scoffed that "they're not going to change course on their fare increases because Target has a warehouse full of stuff."

"Scott- Scott- Scott- That's not what I said. That's not what I said," Jim said, insisting it only has "implications" for inflation.

"I'm not talking about the Fed bailing anybody out," Jim said.

Jim insisted that jobs and consumers are strong.

Stephanie Link said that Brian Cornell "did not get the switch from goods to services" and that both TGT and WMT should have seen this.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal called RIG his "sleeper" stock for the next two years.

Overtime's Brian Belski told the judge that he thinks "bottom is being hit."

When stocks go up, it's the free market; when stocks fall, it's the fed's fault (continued)

In a sleepy, lukewarm, lackluster edition of the Halftime Report on Monday (6/6), viewers were treated to at least one staple: a complaint about the Federal Reserve.

Jon Najarian claimed that the Federal Reserve was "absolutely wrong for the entire 18 months of this zoom (sic lowercase) on inflation."

Doc also expressed skepticism about the outcome, i.e., whatever it's called when we're back below 2% inflation, saying that most people think of the idea of ​​a "soft landing" as a "postage stamp." that we're trying to land this." plane", although he admits that it could be "soft".

Shannon Saccocia said the market will be "oscillating" between pessimism and optimism for weeks at a time. Saccocia and Sarat Sethi mentioned the 5-year plan for owning shares (without saying what to do with the ones you bought in 2017).

Joe Terranova said that "asymmetric market risk is positive." Joe brought up "President Trump's fees" again, which Joe says are due in July.

Doc said he can't agree with Joe's "high" risk assessment because the Michigan consumer survey was "the lowest in 10 years, 61" and "consumers are being squeezed everywhere" (remember, If this is the Fed's fault, gasoline would have cost $1.50 a gallon if the Fed had made the overnight funds rate just 3.75% a year ago.)

At 5 pm Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she finds it "a bit disconcerting" that the market seems to like it every time the Fed sounds hawkish.

Buying AAPL... at $100

Experiencing a dearth of television-caliber topics, the judge opened the halftime report on Friday (6/6) by asking the panelists what they thought about the AAPL.

And while most of the comments weren't headline-worthy, Jenny Harrington revealed that she would "start looking" at AAPL for her growth portfolio at…$100 a share.

Bryn Talkington said the criticism he's always had of the AAPL is that it "didn't really have a lot of earnings growth."

Jon Najarian said he is "aggressively" selling calls on the money in the AAPL.

So the judge brought in Tom Lee, whose new memo he says is "relatively optimistic." Lee said that the Nasdaq 100's valuation is "lower than the 2003 trough" and that from 2003 to 2008, the Nasdaq outperformed the S&P "by more than 4,000 basis points."

We hear Lee say "Web 3.0."

Lee said there was a "serious deterioration" in job openings, making it difficult to argue that inflation is "accelerating."

Lee also said he is sticking to his 5,100-year target, although it "sounds crazy," but he expects "a lot of positive developments" in the second half of the year. But he suggested that 5,100 may not arrive until March 2023.

Jenny Harrington bought UBER. The judge called it "out of place." Jenny said that she is due to the "disciplined growth strategy." Jenny said she looked at several stocks on the "rubble" and UBER was the only one to make the cut, due to projected future cash flow. (This writer is UBER long.)

Jim Lebenthal said it has been clear that there has been a "cultural problem" at BA for years. (This writer is a longtime bachelor.) Jim said that David Calhoun needs a "gain" in style. But Jim said it's hard for him to see a recession when the planes are "full."

Jim said he's in the office 3 days a week, "and he's sterile."

fast money evaluation (71)

When art and life collide

The initial reactions at CNBCfix headquarters to "Top Gun: Maverick" weren't nearly as effusive as the ones Halftime Report viewers heard from Jim Lebenthal and Josh Brown this week (see below).

(Actually, one of the movie's heroes looks a bit like Jim.)

(But none of the actors look like Weiss.)

It's over 2 hours of characters telling the backstory to other characters.

No one can do anything in this movie, not even walk down the street and think, without explaining it to someone else.

Some of that backstory is even repeated, apparently for emphasis. Some of this is also in the form of science. (Admittedly, it's a more compelling backstory than the Rudy Gekko affair in the cataclysmic "Wall Street" sequel.)

The original "Top Gun" wasfunny.Great one-liners and bs-sling and one-upmanship. Basically a movie about high school competition and macho culture. With great aerial photography. And a genuine appreciation of the military.

"Maverick" is a tribute band to the previous ones. Interestingly, there are no more actors from the original involved in this project. It's a bit like Mike Love and Al Jardine on tour as The Beach Boys.

It's basically Tom Cruise and a holdover.

But that remnant...

This page will not reveal anything. You must see. Let's just say Tom Cruise is a fantastic actor, certainly underrated, certainly on the Best Actor of All Time short list, delivering many of the most repeated lines in cinema, someone who can pull off a mediocre, laborious production and hit us with a punch. , feeling like he does here as we support the people, on and off screen, who make us laugh or cheer us up or stand up for us when maybe we don't need to.

Only diapers in fintech

It's hard to believe that a brief fintech conversation could lead to the headlines of Thursday's Halftime Report (02/06), but that's pretty much how the production went.

Pete Najarian, adopting a giant stance, said he would hold onto his PYPL shares, but couldn't say for how long. (This recorder is long PYPL).

Pete said he knows the PYPL chart is "awful" and that the company hasn't been transparent enough. But he thinks his acquisitions are "significant."

Josh Brown said he had a "horrible" experience trading PYPL and can't believe how quickly the stock became "non-investable." He said many fintechs have gone public "and don't have organic growth." Brown said traditional banks "are going crazy with technology."

Steve Weiss compared fintech to Toys R Us some time ago, selling diapers at a loss to attract buyers so they can sell other things at a profit. "These companies only have diapers," Weiss said.

(Honestly, that comment doesn't make much sense, because it implies that everyone has some desirable product that they're willing to sell at a loss.)

(But it's fun regardless.)

'High profile' doesn't necessarily mean 'good'

The judge opened Thursday's (2/6) sleepy halftime report by asking Steve Weiss about "the Microsoft news" (Zzzzzz).

Weiss said the company is saying, "We don't have enough in the kitty to hit again." So he really thinks it's a "sign of weakness".

Pete Najarian said he's not "diving" into MSFT, he's just "watching" it.

Meanwhile, Weiss said there's a "decent chance" we'll have stagflation.

Pete said, "You must be hesitant" about buying stock this year; he says that he "bought 3 different stocks, that's all" in 2022.

Josh Brown said he thinks "there's still room" for oil and gas stocks to work, though he doesn't want the "big integrated companies that they're protecting."

Brown said the NFLX has a "lot of high-profile content in the second half of this year." (Translation: better things than "The Lost Daughter").

Pete Najarian said people are realizing that DIS is much more than a streaming company, so he thinks the stock could see a "pretty decent recovery."

When stocks go up, it's the free market; when stocks fall, it's the fed's fault (continued)

Grandpa Steve Weiss returned to center stage on Wednesday (01/06) in the Interval Report, stating that the Fed's balance sheet reduction will "tighten credit" and create "increased volatility."

The judge reported that Jamie Dimon does not seem "too optimistic". Liz Young said Dimon is "probably doing it right" by being conservative with guidance, because second-half predictions are likely to be wrong.

Young believes there's a "decent chance" we can "lighten up a bit" in July.

The judge said that Dimon actually claimed that we could be "writing history books" (laughs) on the current QE "for 50 years" (laughs).

Joe Terranova said markets are responding to "monetary and fiscal policy mistakes that just haven't been corrected."

"I think we're paying the price now for what the Fed didn't do 6 or 9 months ago," Joe added.

Jon Najarian said: "I'm really trading. I'm not investing at the moment."

'Capital Duration Cleanup'

On the break on Wednesday (01/06), Grandpa Steve Weiss complained that filling up the gas tank is "20% higher than 2 weeks ago."

Weiss said he thinks we're headed for a recession, saying it was "sheer madness" for Macy's to raise estimates.

And Weiss again pointed out that the people on the show live in the "bubble" of "luxury" where things like inflation are not felt.

The judge's chief guest, Dubravko Lakos, stated: "Investors are paying through the nose for defensive stocks."

Indeed, Lakos has a target of 4900, partly because "positioning is too bearish" and people are basically positioned for a recession, but the bigger picture for him suggests "technical recession at best."

Lakos, who said "base case" about 15 times (not literally that many, but it felt like it), at one point said, "To me, this is less about a recession, more about what I call cleanup duration." actions" (snickle) (sounds a bit like something you hear in The Hague), which is something about technology versus defenses.

Joe Terranova asked Lakos if we can be sure that inflation will "lock in" and allow this rotating trade. Lakos basically said that energy stocks can still do well with high energy prices, but the technology has already gone through "pretty substantial adjustments."

'Hosed' isn't a term you hear all the time on CNBC

In Wednesday's (6/1) halftime report, the judge told Mark Fisher that someone is predicting $20 worth of natural gas, and the judge questioned Fish's opinion.

"It's a number," Fish said. "How tall is tall? I have no idea."

Natural gas allowed for fish is "definitely going to be in the double digits."

Fish said the "best entry point" into natural gas and "the whole energy complex" in the next 3 years will be when a ceasefire is declared in Ukraine, because that won't end high energy prices by any means. .

Delta's Ed Bastian told Phil LeBeau: "Demand is phenomenally strong."

After the break, on Kelly Evans' The Exchange, Simpler Trading's Danielle Shay said CHWY is losing money; "They are completely lost when it comes to profit."

Overtime's Josh Brown said Mark Zuckerberg was "genuinely a kid" at the time of Facebook's IPO.

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Whoever sold AMZN made an April Fools joke about Joe

Josh Brown noted in the Tuesday (May 31) halftime report that AMZN and UBER have been "absolutely wiped out" recently.

Brown said that if there is a downturn in the economy, AMZN and UBER are likely to have a larger share of their markets, suggesting that an economic downturn "puts less pressure on the cost structure of these companies."

Guest host Missy Lee asked Joe Terranova about his "really interesting comment" in her notes about being in a "really bad position" at AMZN. Joe said, "April 1, I bought at 3,275. Can you pick a worse buy? Like I'm down 35% on the stock," no matter what "fundamental statement" (laughs) he might make.

"Bad decision on my part, bad buy. Stuck in a bad position. It happens," Joe concluded.

"Yes. It does," Mel said.

Josh Brown said the fintech revolution was "substantially overblown." Jim Lebenthal put it impressively: Don't try to do "Triple Lindy" (pictured above), just stick with big money central banks.

Jim saw "Top Gun: Maverick" over the weekend and thought it was "really terrific." Josh Brown said he saw it too and it was "unbelievable".

Mel said: "I just saw 'Top Gun' the other day. Ready for 'Maverick' now."

Jim made the FOR his final exchange. At 5:00 p.m. m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman said to sell out the top calls in the PARA because "Top Gun" opening weekend was over.

Nothing about revisiting 'Laugh-In' this time

In a tepid, tepid, non-starter episode of Halftime Report on Tuesday (5/31), hosted by Mel (Judge, funnily enough, was still running overtime for the day), the strongest decision was to buy... AT&T and Verizon .

At first, the panelists seemed a bit undecided about whether this week would go uphill.

"Beautiful weather but not a nice market," said Stephanie Link, who said she did not see a "soft landing" and "unknowns" would continue to wreak havoc on stocks.

But Joe Terranova said: "I think there is more upside potential."

And Jim Lebenthal brought up Bostic's "pause" comment again.

But Josh Brown insisted that "it's a bearish bull market" and advised getting rid of the "metaverse junk" in your portfolio.

"Try to control your own emotions" (laughs), Brown added.

This time Brian Belski was not asked about his year-end S&P target, but praised "traditional telecom stocks" as part of a focus on reducing communications services. Jim Lebenthal said that he agrees with the link, but believes that "almost half" of the industry is GOOGL and FB, so everything else will "drag" with those names, so why not buy those two? Belski said that people should put their FB money in T and VZ.

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Negotiate the 2023 rate cuts

In his review of "American Graffiti," Gene Siskel noted, "Today's stupidity quickly turns into tomorrow's nostalgia."

And then one wonders if the volume of complaints about the Jerome Powell Fed this year (OMG, the Nasdaq composite is NOT going up every week) is destined for some sort of surprise like the S&P futures for Nov 9, 2016 , where we spent the entire year of 2023 hearing about the geniuses who were buying the fund.

At the half-time report on Friday (5/27), no one made any long-term pronouncements, but there were certainly plenty of short-term pronouncements.

The judge said that Steve Weiss called him just before the show and said that he bought SMH, QQQ, Vanguard S&P, QCOM, Volkswagen, XPO, TGT and CLF.

Weiss, who was on the show, affirmed those purchases, explaining that he's been to "a couple of conferences" where everyone has been "decidedly negative."

But "I'm not going to be here for long," Weiss insisted, saying the stock might only work "for a few more days."

Jon Najarian said "volume definitely showed up" in options this week "in that big sell off."

Brenda Vingiello said the Fed's notes on a possible "pause" boosted the market. Jim Lebenthal added to this, stating that Raphael Bostic's comments about being "ready to take a break" in September were the "first indication" that the Fed is considering thinking about a pivot.

Weiss said Bostic is "not a voting member" so take his comments "with a grain of salt."

Not exactly elated was Rich Saperstein, who said he has a high cash position awaiting "more clarity."

Judge believes that GPS did not receive a price in real time

In overtime on Friday (5/27), Adam Parker said there is "some chance" the Fed can "thread the needle without getting it wrong." But "he will lose all faith" if "they end up cutting rates next year."

We don't know why he would be losing faith. If they were to announce that they plan to cut rates in 2023, we would probably see 4,700 in a week. (What do you think, that ZIRP is over?)

In the break earlier in the day, Rich Saperstein, not short on the week's rally, said he sold the DIS, citing streaming wars; he "no longer just wanted to own the shares."

Saperstein said: "It takes a lot of money to make a movie. And people see it once or twice. You might see 'The Godfather' 5 times."

A perfectly good point. (But one that could have been done 1, 3, 5 years ago).

Saperstein said he bought Imperial Oil and Marathon, calling oil an "elegant" way (laughs) to protect the S&P.

Jim Lebenthal said that he downloaded the PYPL. (This writer is long PYPL.) He said he bought it at about 180 a few quarters ago and, "I don't feel like I know any more about it today than when I started... I'm tired of looking at it."

Jon Najarian said he bought DELL; he didn't know the report would be that good, but he felt that VMWare's success was not fully integrated.

Steve Weiss, who bought more CLFs, said that one of the reasons he came out earlier was because he thought it had become an "impulse" stock and "didn't want to play with impulse stocks because they don't end well." though he announced several purchases on Friday that sound like impulse deals based on the negativity he's been feeling at family office conferences.

The judge stated that the GPS was "ugly". He then said, "Take a look at the stock, please," and when the chart showed the stock going up, the judge was shocked. "Wow. They're back."

Doc said he took a long GPS fix because he felt "some kind of stall." He said that he jumped around 9:50.

Julia Boorstin said the film's box office so far is 58% of what it was in 2019.

Jim Lebenthal said he'll watch "Top Gun: Maverick" because "it sounds like it's going to be great."

Jim said that the movie "Jackass" is a "biography of Steve Weiss."

' the mood changes when there's green on the screen' (a/k/a NVDA as 'Buy of the Year')

In Thursday's (5/26) halftime report, Jenny Harrington said she is getting "excited" about the market after putting in "a lot of hard work."

The judge said it's " the weather changes when there's green on the screen," but he's "not sure" what has changed in a week. (Well, there was the bottom of Bill Ackman's tweet.)

Jon Najarian said he thinks we are "probably within the 2-5%" of marketable fund.

Anastasia Amoroso stated that this may not be an "end-of-cycle recession" but a "soft landing."

The judge noted that Jeremy Siegel "did a 180" on how much the Fed should do.

Josh Brown said that the demand for gasoline dropped in 2013 (without a pandemic).

Jenny Harrington said her point last week about the consumer being "too strong" is "really true," though she took "a beating for it." (He is apparently referring to Weiss "congratulating" Jenny for being able to predict AEO earnings that TGT and WMT can't, or the week before when Josh Brown said he didn't know the definition of "oversold.")

Doc said that NVDA at 165 or 167 "was the early morning buy of the year last night."

Doc said he bought TDOC because it has "softened up" again and "pretty much all the targets" in the stock are almost double what they are. He believes that this business "is here to stay." Josh Brown wondered if everything TDOC does can't be "replicated" by "all the big insurance companies" or AMZN. Doc replied, "They already have a huge international presence."

Why did Weiss sell DAL 20% in 2-3 weeks if the origin of a stock doesn't matter?

At the beginning of Wednesday's (5/25) halftime report, Pete Najarian said that he bought NVDA, stating that it has never been cheaper, “ever”. But he said that he will also maintain the INTC.

In a curious distinction, Joe Terranova said that JOET has a lot on NVDA, "so I have a lot on NVDA", even though he "personally" sold NVDA last week after choosing between getting out of that or AMD.

After letting the others do the talking for a while, the judge said he would turn to "always optimistic and happy-go-lucky" Steve Weiss.

Weiss said that a 20 P.E. now going down is "immaterial" because the path of gains is not known. He then pressed to buy the dip.

"It's always flawed, and it's the most flawed basis I could use, say the stock is down 40%, I have to get involved now. I-I-I don't understand. Where do the profits come from? Where do the profits go?" ? Profits?" Weiss, adding that we are in an environment that "we have never seen."

"There's no instruction manual" and "every time is different," Weiss said.

Weiss then warned about one of those black swan things (not China "going after" Taiwan this time), explaining that he has "listened" to "a lot" of generals and found that "all generals" will tell him that if Vladimir Putin uses products chemicals or nuclear weapons, "it's a world war.

The judge quipped, "If that's the light-hearted Weiss, where's the stern one?"

"Scott-Scott-Scott, if you want to review (sic) 'Laugh In,' find someone else," Weiss said, referring to a TV show that no one under 55 or 60 has ever seen. (At least he didn't say Jack Paar, or anything like that.)

Weiss said to focus on the "big picture" rather than looking for "data points."

Weiss said that instead of NVDA, which is "flying blind," he would have bought "some of the other non-trading semis at 45 times earnings," though he previously said P.E. it is "immaterial" because we do not know what the gains will be. Pete said that NVDA is a big company in big sectors and that the stock is "suffering a lot" and that he is being "selective" buying now "at a spectacular discount", although he doesn't call it a "bottom". Pete added that he "sold bullish calls against him."

Weiss said: "You could have had the same conversation at Nvidia in 200."

Weiss mentioned "2,000" when he said that people were buying $1,000 stocks at 500, 400, 50... "and guess what, you lost a can because it went bad." (In fact, we doubt many stocks that traded at $1,000.)

Kari Firestone bought more SCHW, first saying that "stock is down 30% from last year's high." (Oh, Weiss won't like that.) She also thinks of the worst case scenario, SCHW trading at 13 times next year's earnings. (Oh, Weiss won't like that either.)

I'll listen to some generals, I'll predict the stock market

In Wednesday's (5/25) range report, Kari Firestone said that "there are very few times in history where we have as much range between the average high and low for the day."

Ed Yardeni said he is being "realistic" by lowering his 2022 S&P target (which is actually around 500 points, which is at least better than the 1,200 point range) and increasing his recession risk from 30% to 40%. %, but he believes that next year, "we will continue to make a new high on the S&P 500."

The judge played a video from the day before of Jeremy Siegel citing the money supply and saying he is now concerned about the Fed's "overreaction." Yardeni said M2 is still "about $3 trillion above its previous trend." to the pandemic."

Joe Terranova asked Yardeni if ​​we were in "stagflation." Yardeni said: "It's clearly stagflation," but he believes we will come out of it "much faster" than in the 1970s.

The judge said it "seems almost impossible" for Yardeni to say yes, it's stagflation "and on the other hand, oh, but we're going to hit new highs on the S&P next year."

"It's a matter of time," Yardeni shrugged.

Steve Weiss said he was cut from DKS "almost as soon as I opened the deal." He said it's "cheap stock" but basically all retailers are. Joe said that he returned to LULU because "maybe a lot of the bad news" is sold under trade names.

The president declared that his inflationary strategy is to ask big companies not to extort

Sometimes this page has to do the work of TV hosts, as they seem reluctant to ask people on commercial TV if the stock market fears inflation or a recession.

In Tuesday's (5/24) halftime report, Rob Sechan claimed that we are in a "recession" that "is being caused by the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy in response to things that are happening related to the environment with inflation, war and, uh, lockdowns in China."

Therefore, this "recession" is caused by the level of interest rates chosen by the Federal Reserve. But it's just choosing these specific fee levels because of things that "go on environmentally."

Frankly, that sounds a bit weird.

It's like saying, "The Wildcats are throwing more incompletions because the coach has been calling more passing plays because time is running out and the team is trailing by 35 points."

It's certainly not the first time a CNBCer has wrestled with cause and effect.

Later in the show, the judge quoted Bill Ackman (who was not on the show) in a "series of tweets" about the crisis: "It ends with the Federal Reserve sand capping inflation and saying it will do what as necessary. and then demonstrates its seriousness by immediately raising rates to neutral and pledging to keep raising rates until the inflation genie is back in the bottle. Let's hope the Fed gets it right."

Sechan said such a move would be a quick turnaround from Jay Powell's recent predictions and would "defy his credibility".

And as for Ackman, Steve Liesman admitted he was "kind of glad I'm not running the Fed, I guess right now," suggesting that Bill is "impatient with the process."

But this is what the judge did not ask anyone:What, exactly, does Bill think the Federal Reserve should be doing?

Is Bill trying to say that we would have 2% inflation, 3% unemployment, and 4% growth?for everything alwaysif the Federal Reserve had simply raised the interest rate 6 months ago?

Or better yet, Bill is actually sayinggasoline would be 2 dollars a gallonif the Federal Reserve simply stopped buying bonds in the summer of 2021?

Or, more likely, Bill simply demands thatthe Nasdaq can never go down, not even after (basically) 13 straight years of gains, and if it goes down, it MUST be the Fed's fault!

Perhaps if the judge isn't going to tell viewers whether the stock market fears inflation or recession, he could at least explain what the "win" should be envisioned by Fed critics like Bill Ackman, Jeremy Siegel, and Lawrence Summers. . .

The White House also said its inflation strategy is to confirm Federal Reserve nominees.

In Tuesday's (5/24) halftime report, Josh Brown noted that stock market sentiment has been bad for months.

The judge noted a "rapid deterioration" in corporate prospects.

Stephanie Link, however, said Jamie Dimon and Brian Moynihan were saying the economy was "pretty strong."

Steve Liesman said that no one should have thought that when the Fed started this cycle, it would all be "pretty crazy" now.

Then there was the magic word with "R," as Brown revealed, "Google searches for the term 'recession' have never been higher, even if past recessions are included."

It was a 'constructive' conversation (ie nothing about the judge's Twitter account)

The judge in the half-time report on Monday (5/23) stated that "the market has been oversold for a while." I don't think I have cleared this up with Jenny Harrington, who argued on May 12 that it is "incorrect" to say that the market is "oversold."

But Jim Lebenthal said that we are actually "very oversold."

Jim pointed out that the problems with WMT and TGT's earnings reports were not revenue but "egregious" margins.

Jim claimed that this is a "stock picker's market (laughs)," pointing to CSCO, which is just one of hundreds of stocks that took a hit here or there during 2022, but whatever.

Jim said he was "taking solace" in Jamie Dimon's comments because Dimon is a "cautious guy" who, if he had any credit problems, would have brought it up.

Jim said he would be very encouraged by "tangible signs of a drop in inflation."

But Bryn Talkington said the Fed is in a "really difficult position" and may not have "the right tools" to fix it -- whatever everyone is complaining about. (Oh yeah, the fact that they're paying $5.50 a gallon.)

In the most emotional commentary on the show, Joe Terranova asserted that there will be no "capitulation" until the Fed not only speaks "more aggressively" but "acts even more aggressively."

"I don't think they can speak more aggressively than they already have," the judge shrugged. (Yes, threatening to raise rates to 20% overnight is unlikely to drive gas prices down.)

Joe was about to say "negotiable nonsense (laughs)" but corrected himself in time.

Joe said that JPM had a "double bottom" around 115, so it is "ok" buying around 124 1/2 as it did on Monday morning.

Joe said it was a "tough decision" to choose between NVDA and AMD last week. (He sold NVDA, citing gaming headwinds.)

Bryn Talkington said MSFT's multiple of 26 to 20 for the Nasdaq forward "could easily go down." Jim Lebenthal said that he is underweight on MSFT for "exactly" this reason.

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Elon Alert: Judge Charged with Spreading Misinformation on Twitter

Things got a little complicated in Thursday's (5/19) half-time report, when Jim Lebenthal said that the number of jobless claims is "extraordinarily low" and that people in that situation will "easily" find other jobs.

The judge suggested that WMT and AMZN may have discounted that theory.

Jim replied, "We talk about jokes on the show (actually, it's mini-rants most of the time) and you accuse me of being insensitive. I think you know me better than that."

Jim insisted that airlines, hotels and restaurants "are dying for people." The judge protested that they had argued on "countless times" that seeking hospitality and traveling for truths about the help-seeking market is "the wrong place to look" because of "all the pent-up demand."

Jim continued: "You tweeted something today like, Lebenthal doesn't have a care in the world."

"I didn't say that," the judge protested. "I didn't say that. I didn't say you don't have a care in the world. I said, you still think we're not making it...we shouldn't worry about a recession or a slowdown." or that profits must go down."

Well, the first thing we ask ourselves is, what do these two people achieve by spending time on Twitter? So we wonder, what did the judge actually tweet? It was this: "Is farmer Jim @jlebenthal still bullish without worrying about the consumer recession or profits and recession?"

Well, Jim was more right than the judge, who actually tweeted that Jim might "not be worried" and then claimed on TV that he tweeted that Jim might think people "shouldn't be worried."

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Judge says he wants to 'promote' 'constructive' talks

It was a laugh from the chair (seriously) on Thursday's (5/19) halftime report day, right after the judge announced at the start of the show, "A very long break. Great. Headline for you today." .

That headline was… Jim Lebenthal cutting his 2022 S&P target from 5,030 to 4,850.

Oh boy.

Admitting some people might be asking, "What the hell is this guy smoking?" Jim noted that his new target still represents a 24% early lead from here.

With a lengthy conclusion, the judge made a statement (that's correct, not a real question) to Josh Brown about Jim's market prospects. Brown's response was the funniest line on the show in weeks, if not months: "OK."

After a moment of silence, the judge said, "Yeah…Josh…If you want to be a smarty guy, I mean, then we can do something else." This led Brown not to waste time on his speech, but to embark on his most recent speech (probably from the previous afternoon) on the market outlook.

In another unnecessarily long conclusion, the judge asked Steve Weiss about Jim's comment. Weiss said: "I don't think he's been smoking anything. In fact, I think he's been using much stronger stuff."

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Specialized retail to the rescue

Grandpa Steve Weiss spent every one of his soundbites on Wednesday's (5/18) halftime report pronouncing the DOA of the US economy.

But at least one of those pronouncements sparked a minor argument with a panel member.

Weiss said that AMZN has "some problems" including the consumer, which is why he sold it, stating, "The consumer in the luxury segment will still do fine. But for everyone else, the numbers just don't add up." .

Jenny Harrington said she disagrees, stating that she bought AEO "on dividend strategy 2 weeks ago" and stating that the stock price predicts a 50% profit cut.

"I don't think the consumer is going to stop spending on American Eagle at 50%. Maybe a little bit," Jenny said, boasting that she bought AEO "under 40%."

The judge was going to interrupt, but Weiss said he wanted to "congratulate Jenny" because "she can predict earnings, but Walmart, Home Depot, Target, they can't and they're right on that, so congratulations, congratulations Jenny." ."

"Give him a break, Weiss," Jenny said.

What we would like to focus on is the "40% drop". Why is it okay to buy some stocks that are down 40% and others not? (Oh, that's fine, as long as it's not Teledoc, Docusign, Crowdstrike, Snowflake, or Peloton.)

If the bottom 70% are bankrupt, why aren't more $2,000 checks going out?

In Wednesday's (5/18) halftime report, Steve Weiss chided all stock market watchers who were in "disbelief" that margins could fall or that the consumer would stay strong.

He then went on to say that investors don't live in the "real world" where (his new favorite catchphrase, replacing China "going after" Taiwan) "60-70% of the country lives paycheck to paycheck."

Now this is interesting because other people say that there are 2 job offers for every job seeker. If there are so many jobs out there, why do people live paycheck to paycheck?

Weiss also predicted that the country's wanderlust "will quickly dissipate."

He said business travel has increased because people haven't seen their clients or vendors for 2 years, but that will pass and he'll be back on Zoom. (It was a year or two ago, they never fly again now that they have Zoom.) "Who wants to be on a plane more than they have to?" Weiss said, predicting this as the "last good quarter for airlines."

Grandpa Weiss also said that just-in-time inventory is not only "dead", but "we will not see it again in our lifetime." That's one of the reasons why he likes GXO. (He cited so many reasons that we tend to be skeptical.)

What if the Fed cuts rates?

Joe Terranova led Wednesday's (5/18) halftime report by saying “we have a problem now” due to the TGT failure, “completely negating” the bear market bounce.

“Now we have to worry about margin compression,” Joe said.

The judge asked Jenny Harrington about repositioning some stocks to other stocks; there was too much stock for us to keep track of.

Bryn Talkington says it's "futile" to fight the Federal Reserve.

Returning to one of his favorite topics (as was Weiss about people living paycheck to paycheck), Joe said that Joe Biden could, "for the good of the country," suspend or relax some tariffs. The judge said that the problem is that it is a "political question".

Joe stated that inflation is "out of control."

Judge can't get enough of Brian Belski, who could basically make up for anything Jonathan Krinsky says, but Krinsky, for whatever reason, didn't appear on Wednesday's show.

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'Oh, are you taking furniture orders in a call center? How about flying some 747s!!!!!'

Tuesday's (5/17) halftime report, to our surprise, ended with a splendid little debate NOT on interest rates and comments from Federal Reserve officials...but on actual strength, or lack thereof, of the US economy.

Josh Brown, in his opening monologue, said that the higher reported growth is largely offset by inflation and that he is not interested in "nominal gains."

Brown stated, "This is not a great consumer environment."

"Good for the services that is," insisted Stephanie Link. "Travel, leisure, hospitality, hotels".

"Compositions are 2021!" Brown said. Link said he would "listen" to what UAL had to say about business travel reaching 2019 levels.

The judge, evidently a financial analyst by now, chimed in: "But you have to believe ... that the business travel recovery is not going to last."

The judge then turned to Jim Lebenthal, who insisted that there is strength outside of the service sector.

This led financial analyst Judge to state: "People like Jim have been very optimistic not only about the environment, but about the consumer, because they're looking in all the wrong places (no, Judge didn't mention Johnny Lee's music)." .

Or maybe the only place the judge is looking is the tape.

Mike Farr predicted a recession sometime in the next two years because he doubts a "soft landing" from the Fed.

Things then took a serious intellectual turn when Jim made the kind of point rarely heard on the show, stating that "nobody's going to like" this particular point, but "The current inflationary environment is terrible for consumers and it's great for stocks.

This goes a long way in answering, correctly or not, whether the market is afraid of inflation or recession, the question that the judge did not have the courage to ask anyone this year or last year.

Moments later, the judge informed that W freezes signings for 90 days. Jim said it's "good news" and made this statement: "You want the stay-at-home beneficiary businesses to start freeing up people so they can migrate into those sectors of the economy, meaning the service sector, who are desperate for workers that will help inflation you want those people to move out of amazon warehouses and wayfair warehouses to be baggage handlers at airports.

"It's good for workers and it's good for the economy," Jim added, explaining that he's sorry if anyone thinks he's a "jerk."

The judge added: "Well, nobody wishes anybody to lose their job."

Jim said there are 11 million jobs and 5 million unemployed workers.

"Yeah. Um, I'm not going to argue with you," the judge shrugged.

IT'S OKAY. Jim has mixed things up if he thinks online retailers should "leave people out" so everyone immediately searches for industries people want to see filled, like airlines, restaurants, nursing homes, and auto repair.

Look, there's something we've heard about that still (supposedly) exists and it's calledfree market,which supposedly allocates capital, labor and resources to places where there is demand and away from places where there is not.

Jim is wrong to make this specific point about a specific company, which has been hotly debated on Wall Street for many years, ignoring that even in the best of times, economies don't work perfectly for the consumer; Many people who might be good at desks or mowing lawns would rather try their hand at law school or Hollywood original series.

For whatever reason, this permanent disconnect seems to be intensifying amid the pandemic, probably because so many industries have been affected.

Theoretically, it should work on its own.

The alternative is to let people like the Soviet Union choose which jobs we should have.

In other matters, the judge said that Joe Terranova, who was not on the show, "saved" and sold WMT on the open market Tuesday at 136.26; Joe had him for about 3 weeks, and the judge said that Joe declared him in the "penalty box" for a "long, long time." Joe appeared on Post 9 in overtime and first asked if the judge "got rid of" the halftime tape because Joe didn't want to see it anymore, to which Joe said that WMT had an "idiosyncratic, abysmal report."

In a numerical stumbling block, the judge suggested in overtime that Joe sold WMT "at 132" after pricing correctly at halftime, which Joe affirmed.

Josh Brown, at halftime, said that as long as the leading averages are below 200 days, "every rally is guilty until proven guilty" so "this one is likely to fall apart."

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An even bigger operational mistake is simply giving the green light to horrible movies.

At first, we cringed when the judge appeared to ask Jim Lebenthal about Paramount Plus (the streaming service with 500 "Star Treks" or something) on ​​Monday's (5/16) halftime report.

But then Jim said something interesting, about a different company.

Jim said that letting "literally 1/3 of your subscriber base hang out, paying nothing, taking advantage" is a "big operational misstep" for NFLX.

Well, while some on CNBC have claimed that it should be an easy problem for computers to fix, this page isn't so sure. If a person signs up for NFLX and goes to a friend's house, it sounds like that person should be able to watch NFLX; Differentiating between that and someone simply telling a friend about a password seems problematic.

We do not know. That's what Reed Hastings and Ted Sarandos make a lot of money for.

(We know that if Netflix continues churning out crap like "The Lost Daughter," there won't be any funding for that action.)

Meanwhile, even the presence of Joe Terranova and Liz Young at Englewood Cliffs failed to liven up a decidedly sleepy delivery of the Halftime Report on Monday.

There may be a rally, but "I don't think it will last," Liz said.

"You absolutely want to own the power," Joe said.

The judge said that Joe sold IBKR and CMG. "I always have a risk management process," Joe said, and in the understatement of the week, "I know it gets tedious for viewers."

Joe assured that he will never suffer an "exorbitant" loss. #whoopdedo

Liz actually voiced warnings about...yeah, hard to believe...theconsumer,stating: "There has been a big boom in consumer credit and people have spent their savings, now they are starting to spend on credit cards."

Steve Weiss called and said that he is "still very bearish in the market" even though he is buying DAL again. He said he recently sold the DAL because he's up 20% in "2-3 weeks" and doesn't expect another deal as good, but said there are "no seats anywhere" on upcoming flights.

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'Get real' - IBM, CSCO, PFE to bring the stock market into a new era

The breakout report on Thursday (5/12) was marked by a heated debate over a...definition.

Josh Brown had a thing about the "oversold" market getting ready to "rip."

When Jenny Harrington had the chance, she said, "To think about a market that's going to explode is really applying the playbook of the past to the present... To say we're selling too much, I think is wrong."

Jenny is tired of the old leaders and said she wants Pfizer, Cisco, IBM (seriously, that's what she said).

Jenny also said twice that we should "get real" and realize that AAPL is a "mature tech company" and that these companies don't trade 23 times.

However, Josh Brown said it is "impossible" for the leading averages to appear if the AAPL continues to fall 2-3% per day. Jenny interrupted to say "It's only 7% of the rate." Brown urged Jenny to "wait" and let him talk.

"You don't know what the word 'oversold' means either. It's a technical term. It has nothing to do with the PE multiple," Brown said, saying that an RSI of 31 is "statistically" the definition of "oversold." .

"We're not arguing with each other, we're literally talking about two different things," Brown said.

"Okay. I'll give you that on the oversold part. I'll stick with my definition of oversold," Jenny said, before Brown cut her off.

fast money evaluation (80)

'mass beer'

People looking for optimism may have been buoyed by some of the comments at the start of Thursday's (5/12) halftime report.

Jim Lebenthal began by stating that the market "trades on emotions rather than rational logic."

But Josh Brown chimed in, saying, "I think there's a big tear in the making right now."

The judge, in his written response, stated: "Some of the smarter investors I talk to right now call it 'The No Mas Market.' Not anymore."

Jon Najarian agreed with Josh Brown that only "trash" was breaking Thursday morning.

Doc said he thinks there really could be a rally ahead, but "I don't know if we're there yet."

Jim said he left TWLO, he's tired of it, "He's an eyesore."

fast money evaluation (81)

Bill Miller con sombrero Bitcoin

Maybe not everyone at Thursday's (12/5) halftime report thinks the stock market is "oversold", but Chris Hyzy seems to be the one that is.

Hyzy noted that, "when 70% of the Nasdaq is down, uh, a bear market, more than 20% of its all-time high, and 52 weeks, and 60% of the S&P is at the same level (sic grammar), I guess you could say that a good part of the market is oversold."

The judge demanded that Jim Lebenthal admit that the world seems a bit more "troubled" than Jim was "willing to admit". Jim said yes, but that doesn't look much different than 2-3 months ago. "I think so," the judge insisted.

Josh Brown called GM "a bankrupt stock in a bankrupt industry in a bankrupt market." Jim said the characterization "frankly applies to almost any stock market right now." Then Jim, on the topic of the day, assured: "We are not arguing."

The judge asked Josh Brown about BROS. Brown said "this chain is on fire," but dairy prices are up 25% in one quarter and "we're in a bear market because of rising inventories."

Joe Biden said during the Halftime Report that he will fight inflation by asking big companies not to extort

Jeremy Siegel, Featured Guest on Wednesday's (5/11) Halftime Report and World's Biggest Inflation Concern

(On the other hand, we have Josh Brown saying, "The consumer has no choice but to spend, or they won't eat.")

, he insisted that there is "built-in inflation" and "it will continue for the next 6 to 9 to 12 months."

Jeremy really wants Jerome Powell to say:

Sorry, we're not sending Fed officials to semiconductor factories or oil rigs in 2020

"We really made a mistake."

However, "the strange thing about this bear market is that there are no signs of a recession yet," Siegel said.

Of course, Judge didn't ask, and Siegel didn't volunteer, whether the stock fell because of inflation or the recession.

But the judge asked a decent question. "Do you think the Fed wants the market to go lower?" Siegel said, rather uncomfortably, "I don't think, I mean, I don't think the Federal ReserveWould you like itthe market falls. But they won't intervene..."

Jeremy said long-term investors should be happy the market is getting back "to the way stocks are supposed to be valued." Yes, those long-term investors surely had a big problem with the Nasdaq's 2009-2021 performance.

The judge relentlessly praised Lee Cooperman's appearance in overtime on Tuesday (5/10); there were so many beeps and beeps and buzzes that it felt like the judge was in an arcade.

fast money evaluation (82)

How many soft landings has the White House made?

CNBC's ongoing original series "Inflation Voodoo" aired again during Tuesday's (10/5) Halftime Report, this time in the form of a live speech from President Joe Biden, who coincidentally said some interesting things. on Wall Street's favorite topic.

We take note.

“I want all Americans to know that I am taking inflation very seriously and that it is my top domestic priority,” Biden said. "And today I'm here to talk about solutions."

Interesting. Know solutions to inflation.

(Then he'll say he's sending National Guard guys to oil wells and semiconductor factories.)

"There are 2 main causes of inflation that we're seeing today," Mr. Biden explained. "The root cause of inflation is a once-in-a-century has thrown supply and demand chains completely out of balance."


“And this year we have a second cause,” Biden continued. "A second cause. Mr. Putin's war in the Ukraine. You see, we saw in March that 60% of inflation that month was due to price increases at gas stations, for gasoline. Putin's war also raised food prices."

IT'S OKAY. So not enough oil is being spread. It is not the first time it happens.

But then, there was this:"Some of the roots of inflation are beyond our control."

Oh. Perfect timing for Mr. Biden says: "So let's trust the free market to solve its own problems."

But not.

Instead, "But there are things we can do... This starts with the Federal Reserve, which plays a leading role in fighting inflation in our country (last 3 words are redundant). I have fielded a highly qualified candidate ( sic singular/plural) to run that institution... The Fed has dual responsibilities: the first is to achieve maximum employment. And the second is stable prices."

IT'S OKAY. It's the job/fault of the Federal Reserve (emphasis on the latter).

Because when your defense is giving up 5 touchdowns in a quarter (that would be the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXII), the logical remedy is not to 1) play a different defense or 2) get better players, butrequire the referees to start taking more penalties.

Eventually, things got laughable when we heard about cutting the deficit in the midst of a problem that we all know will somehow be assailed with more debt.

"My plan is to cut everyday costs for employers, cut everyday costs for hard-working Americans, and reduce the deficit by asking big corporations and the wealthiest Americans to stay out of price gouging and pay their fair share." in taxes".

Finally, the judge interrupted the speech and said bluntly: "Frankly, your options are somewhat limited ... certainly laying the solution at the feet of the Federal Reserve."

fast money evaluation (83)

'Shaking my head' at Cathie's curious GM purchase

Tuesday's (10/5) halftime report featured what the judge called the first in 2 years: Josh Brown sitting at the Englewood Cliffs table.

Jim Lebenthal admitted that "it's a bear market on the Nasdaq," but "it's not the general market in general." Jim, who favors the broader market correction prospect, said a "correction" is different from a bear market, a correction that takes place a year from now.

Jim said he hates to say it, but Wednesday's CPI report is "the Super Bowl of economic statistics." (Usually they just say that next month's jobs report is the biggest ever.)

Josh Brown, for his part, insisted: "We have to understand the technical aspects" of this market.

Brown was not impressed with the apparent power of the consumer and resorted to hyperbole. “The consumer has no choice but to spend, or he won't eat. The consumer is on a treadmill from hell,” Brown said.

"Don't interpret them spending more as being okay."

Brown also didn't much like Dave Tepper covering his Nasdaq sale. "David could return it in an hour," Brown said.

The judge said that Cathie Wood is buying GM. Jim Lebenthal said there are "reasons" to buy the name.

Jon Najarian, however, said of the Cathie purchase: "I was really blown away by this and kind of, uh, shook my head," questioning the investment in a "side player" in the lithium market. "Cathie didn't call me to ask," Doc admitted.

Josh Brown suggested that Cathie is "winding down the beta of her ETF."

Brown noted that "Starbucks is ground zero for inflation and labor problems."

The judge revealed of SOFI: "Some frankly disagree with my characterization of the guide as bad in quotes." (Not this page. Must be personal on Twitter.)

Doc said it would only do SOFI options. Josh Brown said, "The stadium they own the naming rights to is worth more than market value."

If someone has a time horizon of 3 to 5 years and bought their shares in 2017...

Despite the fact that Monday's (September 5) halftime report veered into more of the same where-is-background dialogue, guest host Mel prompted some intriguing comments and exchanges.

Grandpa Steve Weiss, whose casualty case was redone in the last 2 weeks

(although he missed that relief rally in early March)

, insisted that "it is still not a normal environment", because almost 15 years of liquidity will be "dissipating" in "less than 6 months".

Again, expressing frustration, basically, that we didn't have thebig hiss downhowever, Weiss again scoffed at the idea of ​​"dipping his toe in the water", saying, "We haven't hit rock bottom" and he would just "keep the money".

Slightly more enthusiastic was Bryn Talkington, who said he focuses on how many stocks are over 200 days. Bryn said that, going back to 2009, she becomes "very interesting" when that percentage drops below 30, a level we're at now.

But after Kate Rooney reported on crypto trends and revealed that "about 40% of bitcoin investors are underwater," Bryn Talkington said she's on GBTC.

Weiss, however, said that he sold GBTC. "I still don't know what a store of value means. Uh, no one can really explain it to me. What exactly is it."

Well, he's onto something there. We're still waiting for a CNBCer to explain if it's A) software or B) a computer program or C) a storage locker or D) something else.

Bryn, however, said that "there's a decent chance it will turn into an ETF."

Meanwhile, Bryn said, "I think you need to post your 2000, 2002 manual."

"I think the Fed has a limit on how much it can raise rates," Bryn added, predicting it won't go "above 2" before stalling.

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova, who had a quiet show, again made the case for buybacks as companies are "coming out of the blackout window."

Kourtney Gibson said that people with a long-term horizon don't freak out. (We're not sure why a stock cares if someone's held it for 6 months or 6 years, but whatever.)

Jonathan Krinsky said that "there's a lot of history in 3900" in terms of "volume-based support."

But he said that "until we get there," it's "a little hard to predict" where the bottom might be.

Kourtney Gibson said she bought DIS. "You won't lose in the long run with this name."

Kourtney said she's "shocked" UBER took a hit on Monday; she said that she is buying more. (This writer is UBER long.)

OH MY GOODNESS! S&P down8 pointsin a week!

On Friday (6/5), we were ready to post a boring account of a rather boring episode of CNBC's Halftime Report.

So, we started overtime, in which the ref said that David Tepper told him: "Central banks have a bit of a credibility issue" and that supposedly taking a 75-point play "off the table" "was not a mistake." ". "forced". 🇧🇷

Of course. Why the stock market?You have to go up every day.

Dan Greenhaus, who was actually on the show, agreed that Jay Powell's line was "absolutely wrong" (laughs) because Powell allegedly took a "tool" off the table.

We honestly don't know whether to laugh or turn this off. a lot of people wholiterally had nothing to do in the markets this yearThey're furious that it costs $20 more to fill up and $200 more to fly to Los Angeles, and they want the Fed to stop other people from trying to buy the same $65 tanks of gas and $800 plane tickets so these things can get going again. . the perfect prices that they loved in 2019.

And thenif the stock market does not immediately return to good returns for them,they go on CNBC to complain that "the Federal Reserve never has a soft landing."

Honestly, the dialogue on this topic is one of the biggest voodoo groups we've ever heard.

Steve Liesman was in overtime and was mostly the voice of reason, but even Steve said, "If Powell really moves to fix this inflation problem, it's not going to be good for stocks."

Saying that Jay PowellCan I"Take care of that inflation problem" is like saying Augusta outfielders can handle scores of -20 or higher. Of course, they can let the rough get bigger and put more wax on the greens, and the number of shots will increase. News:The leaderboard will still look the same.

It's about time the judge had the nerve to ask some of these inflation/Fed critics: 1) What happened to the free market and why are they clamoring for a command economy? and 2) what are they so afraid of?Do you really think this is 1921 Venezuela or Germany?

fast money evaluation (84)

Taylor, Aged Hornung

In Friday's (6/5) halftime report, Jenny Harrington, quoting "The Big Short", said "Your old playbook is over" and "Join new ventures" and don't think you need to get back the money you you lost in the same actions where you lost it.

Steve Weiss said that if there was only "1 minute of air time", Jenny's comment would be the comment to air.

Tyler Mathisen, who delivered the News Update, evidently took notice, as he mentioned this at 5 p.m. Fast Money as Mel's guest host. (But he did not mention the name of the person who mentioned it).

For whatever reason, this led Guy Adami to say that Bart Starr won "a lot" (actually 2) of the Super Bowls by just "taking basically 4 plays."

"The league has caught up with him," Adami said, but he didn't really; the rapidly weakened and aging Packers won Super Bowl II before the bottom fell on offense.

"Most memorable teams of my life, I have to say," Tyler said.

Steve Grasso bluntly said that for the Democrats to win the November election, "the price of gas has to be lower."

From what we could see, the judge did not 'applaud' Mike Wilson in extra time

One guy who did a lot of talking on Friday's (5/6) Halftime Report was reality star Kevin O'Leary, who repeatedly emphasized that it's P.E. ratios, not company growth, which are plummeting.

O'Leary said there is "zero chance" of a recession this year.

He said that 20% growth stocks are selling at an "80% discount at retail" and claimed that Meta's "cash flows have not changed at all."

The judge asked Steve Weiss what he thought about it. Weiss laughed and said that there are "falsehoods" in what O'Leary was saying, Facebook "was decimated by Apple's policies. It slowed down. Period."

Weiss noted how many people on the show seemed upbeat. Weiss said that O'Leary is "so notoriously cheap."

Weiss said: "I think we're overdue for a short-term rally, but I'm not going to take part in it. He later stated: "I was bearish in 2008 and made money. But I missed most of the bullish cycle in 2009."

But Weiss seemed to think that a lot of people still didn't get it. "You still have those lemmings putting up money with Cathie Woods (sic plural)," Weiss said.

Tom Lee called on the show and said that the recent market "has been very painful," but he believes that the risk/reward ratio for stocks "improved this week."

Weiss's last trading Friday was, "Actually, I think there's a good chance the market will turn green, stay green today," but he "stays in the money." (That didn't actually happen, unlike the call from him on Wednesday.)

In fact, Savita Subramanian told Tyler Mathisen at Power Lunch that we are at a "really pivotal moment in terms of a major regime change" in the stock market.

fast money evaluation (85)

Weiss knocked one out of the park

The judge decided, for reasons we can't understand, to give Halftime Report viewers a commercial-free episode on Thursday (5/5).

Even during the time of Final Trade, the show was still in fuzzy talk mode. (Zzzzzzzzzzz.)

When we finally finished watching/listening, we were very impressed with something that was said the day before: Steve Weiss's suggestion to buy SPY and QQQ right after the show ended and before the Fed Q&A, " and stay there this afternoon or until tomorrow morning." "

Sacred. Moly.

Now, you may be wondering why this operation was not promoted on this page when it could actually benefit people.

Well, A) Often we can't do this page in real time, so posting a trade idea that's already passed at the time of posting isn't particularly helpful, B) Weiss didn't fully specify that operation until the end of -show Final Trade, which is normally where people mention stocks that have been in their portfolios for 3 years, and C) Others predicted a rally once the statement was released, but... (Gulp)... We envision such a rally it would last through at least the weekend, and Weiss's advice to unload Wednesday night or early Thursday wouldn't be necessary.

For day trading, it will be hard for anyone to top this.

The bond market is being 'disrespectful' to the Federal Reserve

In Thursday's (5/5) break report with little revenue (ie no commercials), Josh Brown said there could be a continuation of Wednesday's rally if Big Tech led, but Big Tech fell.

"This is what a bull market looks like in a bear a bull market, you don't have +1,000 days," Brown said.

Brown said the "only real way" to survive in this market is to "not let your emotions waver back and forth."

The judge said Thursday's Nasdaq decline was "nothing short of impressive."

Pete Najarian said it's "an incredible sale we're seeing right now."

The judge looked incredulous as he complained to Steve Liesman that Jerome Powell put himself "in a box", as if they weren't reacting to the data from the last 3 days anyway.

Kari Firestone made us laugh by insisting that "junk companies" can predict earnings in this environment because they have inflation clauses (laughs).

Judge joked that it's the kind of day where we have to look for "literal junk" stocks to buy. (Actually, people can probably make the decision to buy these stocks without looking at the materials these trucks are collecting... but whatever.)

Brian Belski, who seems to be on break or overtime once every 3 days, said the market needs to get rid of "some of that negativity/positivity every other day." Belski went so far as to say that the bond market is being "disrespectful" to the Federal Reserve, whom Belski called "the smartest person in the room."

The judge wondered "how are the smartest people in the room" given that "inflation was screaming in their faces and they ignored it."

Belski insisted that the bond market is "ahead of its skis."

Viewers got a rare revelation about inflation

and if this is some kind of phantom exercise by financial leaders

courtesy of Josh Brown, who explained: "The Federal Reserve has no control over inflation. It can control the demand situation." (Of course, they can make people not want to buy those $17 Big Macs everyone dreads.)

Jim Lebenthal made a surprise appearance, saying it was probably too soon for a rebound, but "there are signs that inflation has peaked."

fast money evaluation (86)

The question the judge didn't ask about the stock market in 2022

This page will, over the next few days, be praising some of the things the judge has accomplished in their joint halftime and overtime shows.

For now, though, we're still wondering about the unanswered questions.

Specifically, the question we didn't hear on the halftime report:Stocks plummeted in 2022 due to inflation... or recession?

Since we don't get much help from the judging panel, we're trying to figure it out on our own (laughs), which isn't easy to see, since most nights, we're just trying to reach for a hot meal.

Look, that's what caught our attention...

On April 27, Joe Terranova complained, "People don't care what they pay for a hotel room, or a flight, or the price of a tank of gas."

And that made this page wonder: could inflation be like a falling tree in a forest?

The judge never asked any of the inflation hawks on his panel, "What are you so afraid of? $17 Big Macs?"

You know how Jessep in "A Few Good Men" had to be asked, if he gave the order not to touch Santiago and his orders are always followed, why would Santiago have to be moved off base?

And we have to wonder, if they gave inflation and consumers didn't care... why would the Federal Reserve have to do anything about it?

It seems that what happens is that if a person has a toothache, the Federal Reserve does not fix the toothache, nor the filling, nor the crown. Instead, the Fed reduces the amount of food a person can eat…until, in theory, someone else fixes the tooth. But the person is probably already eating less because he has a toothache.

And then we couldn't help but wonder… what if the Federal Reserve did NOT raise rates or cut rates or whatever?

The question of exactly at what level the Fed's overnight interest rate ishe mustBeing is a hotly debated topic on Wall Street, all the time,for everything always.

We have no idea what exactly this rate ishe mustbe, at this moment or at any other moment.

Conversations about interest rates on CNBC often tend to fall along political or ideological lines; In other words, many people seem to think of the overnight interest rate as a barometer of well-being, that is, the lower it is, the more well-being we have. is distributing

And it seems that this kind of talk leaves no room for the free market to speak.

Last month,Politico reported that Lawrence Summers is taking a winning turn against inflation. But in another interview, it seems that hisbigger meatwith inflation he is unabashedly political: "I think if inflation had been better controlled, there is a real possibility that the election of Richard Nixon in 1968 and Ronald Reagan in 1980 would not have happened."

Oh. Now we are getting somewhere. (Perhaps instead of asking about inflation, interviewers could ask Summers: What exactly did he mean by those comments in January 2005? #AndpeoplethinkPowelllhastothreadtheneedle)

Lots of CNBC viewers

(let's be real, that's pretty much EVERY CNBC viewer)

experienced the inflation figures of the 1970s.

We are still here.

fast money evaluation (87)

I still wonder when China will "go after" Taiwan

Typically, the Federal Reserve's pre-meeting version of the halftime report has a shelf life of about 45 minutes.

But on Wednesday (4/5), Joe Terranova asked a question that was posed on this page, albeit in a different way.

"Why when we introduced emergency measures, we were able to cut interest rates by 100 basis points on Monday morning? Answer.

Well, a curious element of this question is the notion of "removing interest rate cuts"... as if 3%, 4%, 5% is the "real" level that they should be at, and levels current ones are just artificial. "

Joe is afraid that Denny will charge $12 for a Grand Slam®? That was not clear.

In any case, "a strong Fed is a trustworthy Fed. I want more," Joe said.

Later, Liz Young responded to Joe's question by saying, "Getting into a crisis is a lot different than coming out of one."

The judge told Joe that Liz "answered his question very eloquently," because "you keep the patient alive," but when he's better, "you don't tell him to run a marathon right away."

Joe said May should be a rally, partly because companies can restart buybacks.

Steve Weiss, live from Milken's conference, said he's talked to friends old and new in California, famous and not famous, and "I can tell you there's a buyers' strike" in the stock market. (At least there was until 2 hours later).

"You're right to be negative," Judge told Weiss, wondering if there will ever come a point where the market isn't so negative anymore.

"I'm very, very concerned about the consumer (laughs)," Weiss said, opening a comment we'll gladly accept on the other side by quoting "70% of the country lives paycheck to paycheck" (which is basically always true) (and if there are record vacancies...).

Weiss complained about "the Belskis" who keep saying "Buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy."

Joe Terranova said he would choose UBER over LYFT if he had to, but he doesn't think we're in a "more normalized environment" for this type of service, so he wouldn't shop here. Weiss said he disagrees with Joe's skepticism about Lyft's management, stating that Lyft has "excellent" management, and in terms of transportation services in general, "I think they're pushing the yellow cabs into the bankruptcy, for all intents and purposes". I should make money, but "I can't own them now" because of the "indescribable" profitability.

On the bright side, some elements of the pandemic are fading as fewer people end up in hospitals and conferences start to make a comeback. Weiss called the Milken event "the best conference I've been to in 30 years."

EXPE must have given some earnings reports

In Tuesday's (3/5) halftime report, the judge reported that Jonathan Krinsky says the market is "approaching" a bottom, but not "there" yet. (Translation: We have not had thebig hiss downyet.)

That could have been the headline, except guest star Brad Gerstner was asked to define Cathie Wood's ARK concept.

"I know it's effectively an index fund in things that I see as, you know, part of the riskier component of the growth sector," Gerstner explained.

Hmm. Basically a risk index fund.

Gerstner said some high-growth Nasdaq stocks corrected more than he suggested last October, so now he "needs to find opportunities to buy."

"I think inflation has already happened," he said.

"We already see growth happening," Gerstner added.

Jim Lebenthal has stated that he and Gerstner are of a similar opinion; Jim suggested that price stability may be "closer than we think."

Josh Brown said that downdrafts play with the "psychology" of people. Brown indicated that travel and discretionary spending plummeted Tuesday, not a good sign for avoiding a recession.

Brown said that EXPE's revenue had doubled and that the company had "all good things to say" and that the company is "crushing" it.

Jon Najarian, however, said EXPE's earnings were "terrible".

For those wondering if people are going to offer free labor for TWTR now that Elon Musk is at the helm, Brad Gerstner revealed that Bill Gurley "tweeted this" stating that he can't "be anchored" to the prices that "companies more risky". were trading in 2021. We think this likely means Bill doesn't necessarily believe Peloton, Teladoc, and Zoom are returning to their all-time highs.

Jim is right: all the judge does is 'clap' for Mike Wilson

Monday's (5/2) halftime report began as another sore example of Joe Terranova being able to find a win for…all.

Jim Lebenthal has been insisting to the judge that the bull case is the correct case and now is a good time to buy stock.

Joe said that Jim would "finally" be right, but it's "soon". As he continued, the judge interrupted and said, "Let's go now. When?", saying that he doesn't want this "nonsense" too soon.

"Either it's right or it's wrong," the judge demanded.

But instead of Joe defending his own comment, Jim chimed in, stating that bears don't time things perfectly either. "Mike Wilson has been calling a bear market for a year and a half, and youapplaudits. I mean, give me a break," said Jim, one of thebest comments everso good that the judge immediately got defensive.

"Applause him? What do you mean I applaud him, I told him he's wrong! What do you mean? That's what I- that's my exact critique of Mike Wilson, is if you say then it's sunny and 6 months then it finally rains, you can't say you're right."

But the judge usually tells Mr. Wilson "You were right" or "It really is a bear market" or "Yes, fire and ice."

But let's not lose the thread of things. If you were to ask Joe about professional football, we would hear: "The Los Angeles Rams could have a good season or they could take a step back, in which case they could be rebuilding for a great 2023 season. The Kansas City Chiefs could have a good season." year or a consolidation year. Both the Steelers and Ravens can have a good year and maybe position themselves to play..."

Meanwhile, Pete Najarian, who had a smooth show, said it was a busy market with a lot of "weak hands".

Jim said that a VIX of 40 would be an "extraordinary level". He said he "strongly" disagrees with Judge's claim that the earnings estimates are too high.

Brian Belski, who was the main guest, admitted "we're wrong now" and "this is a correction" but is sticking to his "very aggressive" S&P year-end target of 5,300 points.

"We think it will bottom out very, very soon," Belski said.

Belski predicted a "Rally on Wednesday."

fast money evaluation (88)

The judge didn't say a word about the NFL Draft

In the halftime report on Friday (4/29), Jon Najarian noted that AMZN's operating income "dropped 58%" and emphasized the number for the second time.

He was then interrupted by Josh Brown, who claimed to be "professional" and "they're doing this on purpose" and whose opening 4-minute rant and earlier interruptions weren't enough to prove his point (why not just take over the show? and get rid of the presenter and all the other speakers?)

Doc asked, "Can I finish?" and said that kind of decline is "not a small move."

Doc said it wasn't so much Warren Buffett who invested in AAPL, but Warren's "team" who "pushed" him into action.

Brown said a bright spot for bulls is that this week's AAII survey is "more bearish than anything we've seen outside of the Great Financial Crisis."

Doc suggested that Elon Musk took an "inefficient" path to finance his purchase of TWTR; essentially, Doc implied that he could have helped Elon lend money to TWTR against his own shares "without incurring the taxable event of selling those shares." Josh Brown insisted that Musk's purchase of TWTR is "not a financial decision" but a move of "passion" (laughs).

Doc said the Fed "will have blood on its hands" if it tries more than two 50bp hikes, "if it's too strong."

Brown said the first "Godfather" movie is "3 hours and 20 minutes." (Actually, it's the second one. The first one only lasts 3 hours.)

Seems like we went through a show without '75 basis points' or '50 basis points' appearing

Thursday's (4/28) halftime report was eventful and complicated from the start, as the judge pestered panel members about the upcoming AAPL report.

Steve Weiss went on to say that the AAPL results are "ground zero" for... one thing or another.

Judge and Weiss clashed when Weiss argued that the market would not "crash" if the AAPL hits 150 or below. The judge insisted that the market would not be "in a good position" if the AAPL falls below 150. Weiss pointed to Google. The judge said "Google is not Apple" about 3-4 times. Weiss said he disagrees with the judge's argument.

Meanwhile, Jon Najarian said he started nibbling on TDOC around age 29. Weiss shrugged, saying TDOC's product is "completely commoditized."

Doc called the PYPL in the 1980s a "great opportunity." (This recorder is long PYPL).

Plus a promo for CNBC's "Stock Draft," an annual "event" that sounds like a fun idea but actually 1) makes no sense (stocks don't "draft"; anyone can own the #1 pick ) and 2) it's extremely tedious to watch, the judge didn't weigh in on the quality of the first round or who might select which teams.

Joe wants people to start worrying about what they are paying for a hotel room

In addition to handing over the bulk of Wednesday's (4/27) halftime report to Jim Cramer, the judge turned to Joe Terranova for a market call and, in the process, got an interesting observation on inflation.

The judge said that he is calling Joe "Negative Joey" and said that Joe is selling S&P and Nasdaq futures. Joe didn't seem to want to talk about going short, insisting that he is "totally invested" in his portfolio.

Instead, Joe's concern was, "The economy is on fire and the Federal Reserve is way behind."

Okay, that's fair, that's what people have been saying on CNBC for a year.

But Joe continued. "I think the economy is on fire, and it's on fire in a bad way...we need the water to cool," Joe said, before revealing this curious social study conclusion: "People don't care what we're making". pay for a hotel room, or a flight, or the price of a tank of gas".

This has triggered Spider-Sense around here, as we wonder where Joe gets his information that people don't "consider" the prices they're paying.

Pete Najarian, for example, said that we're "starting to see" people who aren't as interested in flying high fares (again, not sure how he came to that conclusion), but also noted (this is more relevant) that airlines reduced the number of flights, which helps explain why so many flights are full.

One of the reasons Joe's comment drew attention is because we often hear oil watchers say on CNBC: "The cure for higher prices is higher prices."

In the movies, there's the occasional theme about characters in trouble who don't really want to be saved. So we have to ask if, according to Joe, consumers don't care about inflation,So why is it necessary to cool inflation?.

Joe demanded to know when the residential real estate will be fixed. The judge, who is evidently now predicting housing markets, explained: "It will be corrected when the Fed starts to dump the mortgage-backed securities it was buying." "Exactly!" said Joe. Jim Cramer said that DHI is selling at 4 times earnings. Joe insisted that "the economy and the stock market are now two totally different things."

Meanwhile, Bryn Talkington argued that FANG/FAANG's glory days are over and predicted a "new set of names" for the next few years. Bryn called FANG a "clever acronym" that "I think someone at Goldman, or whoever, came up with it." Judge and Jim Cramer cleared Bryn up.

When asking Pete about the FB, the judge tried to make a funny comment about a "pile of rocks", then felt compelled to interrupt Pete to explain the line while Pete was trying to make a point - another example ofJudge the interruptions in the often delayed web connections of the people(Pete's connection didn't lag, it seemed to be in real time) for the past few months it just ends with people talking to each other and having to take a break in dead air while they figure it out; Meanwhile, some people are regularly given 2-3 minutes to make speeches.

Jim suggests the FAA wants 'Choun's head on a plate'

In Wednesday's (4/27) halftime report, judge and co-host Jim Cramer took turns criticizing BA's report.

"This may be one of the worst executions I've ever seen," Cramer said.

Moments later, they brought up the article by BA Jim Lebenthal, who said, referring to Pete Najarian's earlier comment: "I'm not going to call this a pile of rocks because I don't want to insult the rocks. That's terrible." report."

Jim Lebenthal went on to say that the report indicated "quite frankly the worst execution I've ever seen in my life" before the judge interrupted him to demand to know what he was doing with the shares. Jim said the bottom line is that he's holding on to inventory because "aircraft are needed."

But, "Calhoun has to go," Jim added. "This is an F-minus... No more lane left."

Then, adding in crude terms, "Choun's head on a plate, frankly, would probably satisfy the FAA and get the 787 redelivered," Jim said.

Invoking a cult movie that no one talks about anymore, Jim Cramer said, "Bring me the head of Alfredo Garcia," which really has nothing to do with anything.

Cramer opined, "Calhoun is part of the downfall of big business", then referenced the "Boeing documentary", briefly reviewed on this page; we noted that a clip of Joe Terranova weighing in on BA's share price was included, which Cramer failed to mention.

At the end of the show, Cramer said twice that it is "amazing" that Jim Lebenthal would refer to Calhoun's "head".

Falling for one of the show's long-running red herrings, the notion that a person's base determines where an action goes, the judge dodged it, saying, "I don't know where your base's questionable whether there's He said what he did and he still has shares, maybe unless his base is much smaller."

Bryn Talkington said that he is getting tired of the PYPL and would be inclined to run. "You don't have to come back the same way you lost," Bryn said. (This recorder is long PYPL).

The judge really wonders about a 50 basis point between meetings

Another insufferable episode of the Fed's observation of the halftime report took place on Monday (4/25), though at least Jim Lebenthal fought off the typical Austerity judge bullying.

In a lengthy opening statement, the judge told Jim that he was still waiting for Jim to say, "You know what, Judge, I was wrong."

Jim said it was a "compound statement with many clauses." Jim said "there hasn't been capitulation yet" so he really was early.

But Jim noted that the stock market is down 7% in just a few days, so "this sounds a lot like capitulation to me."

Bryn Talkington said, "I think we're getting pretty close to a tradable bottom," but "I think it's just a trade off" because the Fed only "created" a soft landing about 10% of the time.

Judge wondered if the Fed would take a 50 basis point walk between (laughter) separate 50 point walk meetings. The really ridiculous thing about this is that if everyone agrees that this is what should happen (and it isn't necessarily the case),Why don't you guys go to 3% now and get it over with so we can stop hearing this nonsense on TV?

Steve Weiss said the market would react negatively if the Fed raised 50 basis points between meetings.

Weiss said that he would "sell any rally" and that "we will most likely go into a recession" and it is "risk management time" (laughs).

Joe Terranova, erring once again like Hank Kimball in "Green Acres", promised "bad news for bears" and "bad news for bulls", the first being that stocks will not drop another 5-10% from the low of February, the latter being that in "presidential cycles" (laughter), "this is the worst quarter."

In another boring but regular feature of the show, Jim made his usual argument about CLF's $6 billion free cash flow and $13 billion market cap.

Jim insisted that CLF is not one of those "techie stocks where no one has done their homework."

Weiss said sometimes profit matters "a lot," sometimes it doesn't and sometimes it matters a little.

In something of a newsflash, the judge said that Marko Kolanovic sees "risks" (a curious term) that lean toward a "near-term stock rally."

The judge also said that someone I "really respect" just sent him a text about technicalities, that the 200-week moving average is 3,462, and if the market goes there, it's 58% higher than the low of March 2020, and the market went to 200 days in December 2018, as well as 2015 and 2011. The judge noted that this is "considerably lower" than we are now. (And it's also probably below the level where Joe (not Newfoundland, the one from DC) and Nancy and Donald start cashing $2,000 checks.)

Bryn Talkington said he bought 85 calls with cash on ADM, and when the stock went up, "I just made a profit."

Bryn advised buying the energy drop; she said the headwinds from China cannot last. Jim agreed that the headwinds from China are "temporary."

In extra time, Tom Lee admitted that the first half was a bit tougher than he thought.

fast money evaluation (89)

Is the government also collecting taxes on our losses?

In Friday's (4/22) halftime report, another excruciating bout of worry about what the Federal Reserve might do (convert to a weekly show, judge), viewers heard the typical update from Grandpa Steve Weiss, who was going well... but then Steve managed to fool himself with too much information.

Weiss said his equity exposure is "a little less than 30%" but that he "can't go to zero" because... (this is the interesting part)... "I just don't want to pay taxes, I hate pay taxes, and that would also generate a big loss.”


Later on the show, Weiss said that he sold the DAL after rising 17% in just a few weeks: "It's a good time to take profit."

We've tried to juggle all of that... but we're not sure we've made much progress.

If it's a "good time" to take profit, why not go from 30% stock exposure to zero?

And if it is "generating great loss",Why are you worried about your taxes?

And if you're so worried about paying taxes, why are you selling S&P and Q and buying SARK, which are likely to be trades you'll be out of (up or down) for the foreseeable future?

Then there's the big picture: If a person is convinced, as Weiss claimed, that stocks are falling…why?wouldn't goDo you sell your shares now and buy them back at a lower price?

(This is where we might get into an earlier topic on this page... Weiss's problem here, and many people's problem, is that he is considering the market value of his shares as money that is "his" without subtracting the estimated taxes, so you feel like you are being billed on tax day... like someone calculating your hourly wage and expecting to see your paycheck for that gross amount without remembering tax withholding, health care, 401(k) ), etc... but we won't.)

Sigh... Weiss suggested a moment of silence on the loss of "TINA" because Weiss says that Treasury alternatives now exist. (Of course. This will last around 3 weeks.)

Weiss said that "the Federal Reserve is the most aggressive I can remember in decades." What if we wait until they actually do something before making pronouncements like this, since the Fed just trades the last 3 hours of data?

Weiss criticized the "risk management" of some people who, he said, are like "Pavlov's dogs" who hear the opening bell and need to buy, "and if they sell something, they buy something else." (Translation: He wants thebig hiss downso i canBuy Microsoft for a hundred dollars!an exchange that literally everyone has been waiting for).

Josh Brown said he's been saying since January, when the VIX hits 28-30, "look for something to buy" and when it hits 20 or 19, "take something out." He is sure that it is working; The only thing is, when everyone realizes it, at some point, businesses like this stop working.

Steve Liesman said he thinks "the market is a long way off for their skis in this '75 material."

Jim Lebenthal played down the "dingbat" market earnings reaction to the CLF. "You should buy this," Jim insisted. Weiss, however, insisted that CLF is a "steel company" and "cyclical" and "not a growth company."

For a 'maybe not much conviction' trade, Josh sure made a grueling defense of NFLX

Thursday's (4/21) halftime report picks up where it left off on Wednesday: with the NFLX.

This time, Josh Brown appeared on the show to discuss his NFLX buyout trade at the opening the day before.

"I saw the clip of you guys talking about me," Brown joked, adding, "I thought there was a lot of something that maybe I don't have as much conviction about." But he believes the stock has been "de-risked."

Brown's argument started with the graph, the fact that it was around 700 not too long ago, and that the multiple has gone down.

The judge said he had spoken with Bill Ackman and Ackman said he can't "wait" for a change from Netflix. Brown said Ackman is a "2 and 20" with a "different investment time horizon."

Jon Najarian said he bought NFLX with an eye on 6-12 months while selling bullish calls against it, sort of a vapid trade we didn't know what to make of.

Regardless of what Najarian or the judge said, Brown kept interrupting to talk about how promising the lawsuit is.

Brown and others reporting stock on this point may be right. But it's one thing if that crash happened at the end of 2020. What this page would question is buying such a name on a risk-free market.

Meanwhile, Judge nudged Jim Lebenthal over the ROKU trade several times a few years ago. Jim called this "pure impulse trading."

Doc said that PLTR is melting like a "sno-cone or ice cube".

Joe Terranova said he bought WMT and predicted it would hit 200 because of concerns about food inflation, advocating for a bigger market share and seeing a "multi-year drop" in the stock.

fast money evaluation (90)

Blame 'The Lost Daughter'

Few topics have garnered as much round-the-clock attention on CNBC in recent years as the Netflix subscriber disaster.

The judge opened Wednesday's (4/20) halftime report by stating that Josh Brown, who was not on the show or calling, outright bought the NFLX.

The judge read a statement from Brown that said that whenever the NFLX fails, "there's always a buying opportunity in the end."

Pete Najarian wasn't as eager, explaining that in situations like this, it's best to "wait a few days" before diving in.

(Actually, Karen Finerman and Steve Grasso offer this advice all the time. As far as we can tell, it's true most of the time. But sometimes, the opening trade immediately after the dip is the bottom.)

Pete said things "need to change" at Netflix, including password sharing, which has been going on for many years, but was only announced by Reed Hastings just now.

This is a very interesting point. We've read a few reviews on this topic, and it looks like this ship may have set sail. Netflix could probably write some algorithms to block account usage in multiple locations. But it can be difficult to impose without playing hardball. What if Joe Doe, who has an account, goes to John and Jane Roe's house and they don't have an account, Joe Doe shouldn't be able to monitor his account with them?

Kari Firestone was even more bearish than Pete, revealing that she openly sold NFLX. "Maybe Josh bought some of our stock," Kari said, saying the model is "broke" and "the party's over."

Kari said there are "a lot of platforms" in the US that are pouring money into content.

"There aren't many great shows or movies," Kari concluded, not now or in the golden age of television.

The judge reported that Brown is "literally on a plane."

Joe Terranova said that Brown will finally be "okay" with his position in the NFLX, as will Bill Ackman. (It was later revealed that Ackman gambled on him.)

Joe pointed to FB's stumble and struggle in early February to regain institutional interest, and "the same goes for Netflix here."

Liz Young said the streaming space has "matured" and streaming companies need to view themselves that way.

The judge said Degas Wright sold the NFLX on Monday. Degas called and said he left because the NFLX lacks "pricing power" and wanted "higher quality companies."

The judge chastised Jim Lebenthal for being TO long, but Jim said it's over since he bought it a few months ago. Jim said "recent history" suggests that what's happening with NFLX is a "Netflix-specific issue."

Jim has stated that there is a "world" or "ocean" of difference between the NFLX and PARA.

One thing that no one mentioned, although Kari Firestone came close, is that Netflix is ​​ordering a lot of "movies" and throwing money at them and trying to hire every name in Hollywood that they can and won't.editionthem, but giving them endless capital to make movies designed to gain Oscar street credibility that, frankly, often suck.

Meanwhile, in other news, Liz Young said it would be a surprise to see stocks and bonds turn negative in the second quarter, just as they did in the first quarter.

Pete Najarian said that IBM is a "very strong name" (laughs) to have in your portfolio. Kari Firestone corrected the judge for saying that Kari called IBM "dead money", Kari clarified that she said that "it has been dead money". The judge agreed that this was "exactly" what she said.

Kari said he wouldn't own IBM, but it might work for people like buying GM and F a few years ago.

Weiss: Someone who buys a lot of options 'could be the world's biggest drug'

The Najarii love to splurge

negotiations that have already taken place

the large option purchases they spot with their HeatSeeker program.

In the halftime report on Monday (4/18), Steve Weiss indicated that not everyone is impressed with this type of information.

Pete announced that he bought some calls on TWTR, which was "very perplexing" because on Thursday someone bought 10,000 TWTR calls from October 55 "in one print."

Weiss scoffed, saying, "I don't buy any of that. And I also don't follow someone who bought 3,000 calls because I have no idea who they are. They might be the world's biggest drug and they lost 10,000 calls." on something else."

"I bought 10,000," Pete interrupted, as if that changed Weiss's point of view.

"They might as well be shorting the stock," Weiss continued, adding that the SEC "isn't done with Musk," as if they were actually going to do anything with him.

The judge asked Joe Terranova for his "perspective" (laughs) on Elon Musk and Twitter. Joe said his perspective is that if Musk wants to buy TWTR, he "will do it."

Well, Musk managed to get on the good side of Congress with Tesla and SpaceX; this will change if he is running Twitter.

(Video) Brutally Honest SHOUTCART Review for Content Creators | Easy Money or SCAM?

Judge opened the show by asking the panelists if the notion of "spike inflation" is over. how does she do itliterally every show,Jenny Harrington took the opportunity to complain again about stocks with "spread multiples."

Weiss is on SARK. "The Fed will continue to tighten," Weiss insisted, because "Putin" is also spooking the market. (But nothing about China "going after" Taiwan this time.)

In what might otherwise have been the headline of the day, Joe Terranova bought NTR and BG, predicting that farm trade "will go parabolic."

CNBC's Phil LeBeau reported on Rivian's finances. Pete admitted that his RIVN calls "completely fell apart" shortly after purchasing them. Judge didn't mention how Pete was regularly trumpeting "Amazon endorsement" as some kind of floor at RIVN.

Companies that depend on their customers working for them for free (continued)...

If you like the sound of applause, Masters is for you.

If you like watching people make fun of each other, then Twitter might be for you.

Josh Brown in the Thursday (4/14) halftime report seemed to inadvertently get at the truth behind Twitter by declaring that Elon Musk is "one of the only people of any note stillactively creating contentand bring people to the platform.

And that's the whole story.

The tweets are not made by Jack Dorsey, Evan Williams, Anthony Noto or Dick Costolo.

They're made by people who volunteer their time and labor to accomplish… what, we're not sure.

If people brought hamburgers to McDonald's and offered to grill the meat, that would also give MCD a price/sales multiple.

Facebook is different from Twitter. (This writer is a long FB). Facebook, at least, is a hub for organizations, businesses, families, an easy way to host meetings or share photos.

Twitter, as Steve Weiss said Thursday, is a "cesspool."

After his opening statement, Brown was given another chance to finish his evaluation of Twitter, concluding, "The big problem here is people don't tweet."

Around here at CNBCfix HQ, from time to time we look for tweets from CNBCers. They are generally useless. Shout out that 1) trumpet articles posted by the tweeter or 2) obligatory applause for friends doing something no one absolutely cares about. Often the only thing that stands out is the cruelty of some of the responses.

"The paradox of Twitter is that the bigger your account, the more risk you are adding to your life or the life of your corporation or organization, versus any potential upside, which can only be reduced," Brown continued. "It's almost like an existential problem. Big accounts go dormant, so there's more risk than reward."

Correct. It's a pretty useless service that should probably be applauded for gaining as much of a pop culture presence as it does in some way.

Brown gets credit for the humor in identifying Twitter's "power users" as "progressive political activists, far-right people, bitcoin psychopaths."

Brown also mocked Prince Alwaleed's reaction to intrinsic value; "Valueless; it's an iceberg of nothing."

Brown said it shouldn't be a "1-bidder situation" and that Google could "instantly double or triple the productivity of the ad business" (almost certainly not), though he's not sure Google has the "guts" to participate in a tender. war here.

Brown concluded that TWTR shares are not a "buying opportunity."

Jon Najarian said that while Google's purchase of TWTR makes "a lot of sense", there is "no chance" that Google or Facebook would "regularly" acquire Twitter.

Doc said he doubted Microsoft would make a bid for Twitter (like it wanted to), given its ownership of LinkedIn.

Doc pointed out Yahoo's rejection of MSFT and how the stock "dunked" forever after that.

Weiss predicted that the board will reject Musk's offer and that the board believes it has a "credible" plan.

But Weiss said the only challenge to the board's decision would be "ambulance chasers" asking for $200,000 to leave. "That's all that's going to happen," Weiss said, asserting that Delaware courts don't even care if companies are being sold at $50 a share that are worth $100, an interesting issue that the judge, of course, doesn't care about. matter. attached.

Weiss said, "Twitter is still a cesspool. It will always be a cesspool. It's a waste of time."

The BBEF - what a catchy slogan

In Thursday's (4/14) halftime report, the judge called Grandpa Steve Weiss an "enemy of the market."

Weiss confirmed: "I hate the market and I'm starting to hate all bulls because bulls keep the market from going lower."

Oh!! Look, there she is...she's been waitingthe big whistle down.

Now that we're in a global adjustment phase, "the market is not going to go up, period," Weiss said.

So the judge made Weiss stick with what "the market knows."

Weiss called AAII "useless," though the Morgan Stanley guy (who Weiss tends to agree with) invoked it when making market calls.

The judge questioned the notion that there are many vocal bulls. "Who is positive?"

Jon Najarian added: "I don't know where these positive people are."

Weiss insisted, ignoring the fact that the show didn't have many kinds of "strategists," "Appoint a strategist, name a member of this panel other than myself, and a strategist other than Mike Wilson, who came on the show and You are not an optimist. Name one."

In fact, only Jim Lebenthal was demonstrably "optimistic." The others are all cautious, sitting on their hands as they wait.the big whistle down.

Doc said NKE 135 calls from September were being bought, and he has a few. (It's always good to get a trade instead of Closet Indexing, except for trades that have already been made by option sharks.)

Josh Brown said to try to think of IBM as a convertible title, but other than that, "it's boring."

At one point, while someone else was speaking, viewers heard, "Hello, this is Shannon from break, I just hung up."

At the end of the show, the judge said that Tom Lee had created a new acronym. The acronym should be MEAT. The words that make up this acronym are actually bitcoin, bitcoin stocks, energy, and FAANG.

Josh Brown shrugged, saying that "Bitcoin is just as boring as the stock market right now."

fast money evaluation (91)

The problem with the judge show

You know that famous TV commercial where the woman asks herself, "Where's the meat?"

Presumably, people watching CNBC's Halftime Report must be asking themselves, "Where's the deal?"

the show isbasically a guide to Closet Indexing.

Of course, the halftime report has too many speakers, all speaking from their living rooms and hampered by 1-second delays in video, to gain or catch up to any sort of rhythm. Knowing that everyone is cautiously bullish, either cutting exposure to this or that sector or managing their risk, and listening to their daily Fed speculation, great.

At the current rate in this limited market, the show only needs to air once a week, like Options Action.

Final negotiations are delivered with so little conviction it's embarrassing.

We have to think that everyone who recommends increasing exposure to, say, energy and decreasing exposure to, say, cyclicals can save a lot of time and effort by simply buying SPY or QQQ.

Originally, the show was about traders looking for daily moves.

Where. Are. O. Trades.

'Reduction in ATM withdrawals' in Las Vegas

A very interesting and concise discussion about the airline industry took place in the Halftime Report this Wednesday (04/13). (This recorder is long AAL and UAL.)

Endorsing the DAL, Jim Lebenthal said Ed Bastian was "totally giddy" in comments about Delta's recent bookings. Jim said Delta is clearly ahead of other airlines in customer service.

Kourtney Gibson said that DAL is "definitely a name you want to keep."

But Pete Najarian suggested that many people may already have released their pent-up urge to travel, and that might be in the best interests of the airlines.

"My last 3 Delta flights were half full," Pete revealed. But Jim responded: "International travel is still 55% of what it was in 2019."

CNBC's Contessa Brewer linked the situation to Las Vegas/Gambling stocks, explaining that one CEO sees a "decline in ATM withdrawals," which he calls a "leading indicator." (This writer is long LVS.)

However, Jim Lebenthal said that casinos should already be owners. But Pete Najarian, at Judge's urging, said Macau's share of casino revenue is "huge" and believes these shares will "struggle" until China recovers.

OH MY GOODNESS!!!! Lael Brainard has spoken!!!!!

The guest star of Wednesday's (4/13) halftime report was not Brian Belski or anyone else who was on the show.

Instead, it was Scott Minerd, who spoke at length with the judge a day earlier on Overtime, declaring: "Every time I hear another Fed member talk, uh, extremely aggressive about the stock... the more optimistic I get."

Belski noted that Minerd is a bond type and agreed that there is a "very good chance" that the 10-year title will be on top.

Rob Sechan said: "It is clear that the market is trying to bottom out at the moment."

Jim Lebenthal said he simply doesn't see a recession "on the horizon," stressing that he sees more positives than negatives.

Kourtney Gibson said "Less bad is good" and that she bought more SQ.

Pete Najarian was a bit hesitant, but said, "It's great to be cautiously optimistic" (Zzzzzzzzzz).

Joe Terranova, who covers just about every commercial with so many justifications, buffers, and qualifiers that it would put even presidential candidates in a Jim Lehrer debate to shame, said that "the short term is still too confusing (Zzzzzzzzz)"; he dropped ABBV because it recently experienced "range expansion," but used that to add CMG to its growth.

Joe was talking about owning one of his favorite names from the past, PANW.

Pete talked about people buying AAPL calls and HOW IT WAS ALL SHORT TERM IN THE WILD!!!!!!!

Jeffrey Gundlach covers up for the judge to suggest that inflation may be peaking (why doesn't the Fed immediately go to 3% AND END THIS STORY STRONG?)

The breakout report on Tuesday (4/12) continued a trend of, oh, about 6 months, where everyone insists that inflation may be bad for a while, but there is no need to cut stock market actions.

Jon Najarian said that corn prices have doubled since 2 years ago, "and will go up significantly."

Doc said that people want to take energy and food away when calculating inflation, and by Fed standards, it may be peaking, but "Joe and Jane" (ie regular non-Wall Street people, not Joe Terranova) will feel these things, and "we haven't peaked, for a long time."

Josh Brown made a humorous reference to the Eagles ("since 1969") in reference to used car prices, while saying that prices across the economy don't need to plummet, but the rate of increase needs to slow.

Brown, who was practically yelling into his microphone, seemed to be all over the place in his recommendations, stating that it's very difficult to make short-term stock market directional calls (a good point), but with "under 3s." money", "I would buy the snot of the Treasury at 2 years". But money is from 3 to 10 years, "you have no choice but to accept the volatility of the shares".

Jeremy Siegel continued his Fed behind the curve (it wasn't the Fed, but Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Nancy Pelosi who wanted to send everyone $2,000 for free a year ago), but suggested that the economy remains strong despite everything. . He said 8.5% could be peak inflation, but "I think there will be 6.7% yoy for a long time," stating the Fed has to do "at least 50 basis points" for a "number of meetings ". .

Steve Liesman cited Lael Brainard's latest comments, "the first positive, albeit very cautious, comments on inflation from a Fed official in a long time." But Liesman eventually told Judge: "I would say it would be premature to call inflation peaks at this point."

fast money evaluation (92)

Jim toughens up Judge Austerity's stale routine

In the Monday (April 11) halftime report, Grandpa Steve Weiss said the "problem" is that they "come for the faithful."

Bulls may say they are aware of bad news, but "all good news is also priced in the market," Weiss said.

Jim Lebenthal expressed his current point of view, "This economy is very strong," and there is "opinion" on what is and is not priced in the market. Jim said the market over the past week has priced in earnings estimates falling, though there are "no signs" of a "crack in the labor market."

"And if that's the next problem…" Judge Austerity began.

"You've been saying that for weeks, my friend," Jim said.

"I'm not making this up," Judge Austerity protested.

"I can quote this song in 5 notes Scott," Jim said. "You're going to say that's where the puck is, where the puck is going."

"That's not what I'm saying," Judge Austerity insisted, citing BofA and Liz Ann Sonders' analysis of consumer sentiment on transport.

Weiss insisted that "there is more than one indication that the economy is slowing down," citing freight "price" and freight inventories.

Weiss said analysts are "notoriously bullish" and the "wrong bet" for guidance on the direction of the economy.

"Freight costs are going down because the bottlenecks in the supply chain are decreasing," Jim replied. "Freight costs were too high... This is an inflationary hurdle that will reduce inflation."

Weiss asked Jim if the "majority" of the economy isn't "beleaguered" by higher energy and food prices. Jim said, "Don't tell me what happened in March... it skates where the puck is going, not where it's been (last 4 words are redundant)."

Joe Terranova, who had a quiet show, said, "I think for Jimmy to be right, you have to expect earnings estimates to be very high," otherwise it's a 2-step forward, 2-step type of market. backward. .

Judge Austerity did not give up at the end of the show, saying that Truist warns of stock inflation and downgrades. Jim said, "It sounds like you've heard that statement before, maybe 500 times in the last month." Judge Austerity said: "They may have to repeat that over and over again to convince people like you who are advising people to fully invest." Jim said his advice is good "if you can look past your own two feet" while running. Judge Austerity said the danger is "falling off a cliff".

Sara's Closing Bell booked Tom Lee for Monday. Don't tell Weiss, but Tom said, "We think a lot of bad news is discounted" and that "some of the brunt of inflation is behind us."

0% would be "wonderful"

"The market is screaming defense," Judge Austerity told Bryn Talkington in the Monday (4/11) halftime report.

In one of the most provocative comments on the show recently, Bryn predicted more "hits and starts" this year and that a 0% return in 2022 would be "wonderful."

As for QQQ, "It looks like we're going to, you know, retest," Bryn said.

Joe Terranova called this market one of "maximum frustration."

Bryn has GS but he's not excited about it; he believes that banks are in an environment of "confluence of advantages and disadvantages."

Bryn added ABBV and GDXJ. Jim said the DIS could be "out of the penalty box" with a good first quarter report. The judge protested that DIS's "problem" is how much it would have to spend to continue growing transmission. Jim said "this is nothing new," something that has been discussed since December 2020. Joe said that he prefers to go with NFLX in the broadcast space.

Steve Weiss said he resigned from the CLF "too soon" and that it was a "great decision by Jim."

Weiss predicted that the yield curve will slope again.

Steve Liesman: 'Maybe the bad news got out'

For those who think Lael Brainard just crashed the 2022 stock market, check out what CNBC Fed pundit Steve Liesman had to say in Wednesday's (4/6) halftime report.

"I think at this point, maybe the bad news is out," Liesman said. "I don't expect much more from here."

That got our attention, and apparently others as well, because moments later, Liesman said she wanted to "clarify" that "I think the bad news of what the Fed is going to do is already out. I think we still have a lot of bad news to talk about." potential news of the effects of what the Fed is doing.

Well, if that's not an analysis...

Steve Weiss interpreted it this way: "If you really think about what Steve Liesman said, the Federal Reserve is using the market as a tightening tool. So they're not going to come to the rescue. And I said, and others said that the option The Fed's point of sale is no more (laughter)."

We do not know if the rest of this week will be bullish or bearish. But perhaps the best callout on the show came from Jenny Harrington, who articulated a good argument for why someone with a $1 million portfolio at a cost of perhaps $500,000 shouldn't sell today, racking up a large capital gain just to perhaps avoid another 10% downside in the short term.

What would happen if Congress demanded the return of the $2,000 checks paid by Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Nancy Pelosi last February?

After 2 days of a bad stock market, Steve Weiss was back at war in Wednesday's (4/6) halftime report.

Weiss said: "I have a point to settle with all the bulls who have told me, time and time again, that rate hikes are already on the market."

"I don't think so," Weiss added.

"Bear markets can last longer than a month or two, and I think that's where we are," Weiss continued.

Joe Terranova opined, "Steve's right. Brainard's hawk was undervalued in the market," and then appeared to resort to hyperbole, twice referring to the "Fed's Adversary" and saying he wants to use "the destruction of the wealth as a weapon" to contain inflation.

(We were wondering if Jay Powell was one of those people who told Joe Biden to tell Georgia voters in January 2021 that if they voted for Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, they would all receive checks for $2,000, as part of the $1 9 billion from the New President). inauguration of the COVID Relief Plan.)

Capping off the hyperbole, Joe said: "This is about as challenging an environment as you'll find, whether you're an investor or a trader. You're in the ring with Mike Tyson in 2022," just trying not to get "knocked out." .

'An extra year of stimulus that was totally unnecessary'

In Wednesday's (4/6) halftime report, Jenny Harrington praised JetBlue's bid for Spirit as a "fantastic thing for their business", adding: "It makes JetBlue a stronger business in 3, 4, 5 , 10 years". Sethi says that "it is better for the entire airline industry if that happens", but the concern is that the government does not approve the consolidation.

Sarat defended "cheapest value cyclicals."

He said he will look to convert his C shares into something else after earnings season. Judge spent some time on that stock without mentioning the 1-to-10 split from about a decade ago that was necessary because the stock could never break above $5 (and, financial engineering aside, still may not). .

Joe Terranova said he sold PYPL at 230 and SQ at 250 because they "started to lose momentum significantly."

In overtime, Tom Lee has stated multiple times that he believes the February bottom (keeps saying "4000") is the first half bottom and possibly the full bottom of 2022. Josh Brown said: "We did an extra year of encouragement that was not necessary.

fast money evaluation (93)

The really fun part was the 'Lael Brainard is on a mission from God' part.

Fireworks (by commercial TV standards) went off during the halftime report on Tuesday (4/5) when Jim Lebenthal tangled with Josh Brown over inflation and the Ukraine.

Jim, the most bullish/optimistic speaker, said that a few months ago, Josh was saying that "inflation was about to hit."

Brown interrupted: "Did something happen?" Lebenthal said: "Yes, something happened and it's over."

"What's over, genocide?" Josh demanded.

"Oh stop it, Josh," Jim said.

"This is crazy," Josh said.

"Don't mention genocide, we're talking about stocks and we're talking about the economy now," Jim said, adding: "Let's put the moral nuances aside."

"Don't lecture me, sir. Don't lecture me, sir," Brown said, insisting that commodity prices are hurting the economy, "and with all due respect, nothing is over."

"I think it's funny that you tell someone to stop lecturing," Jim said.

"Nothing's fun about it. Nothing's fun," Josh said.

"You are, my friend," Jim said.

Doc was laughing or cringing during the exchange, captured on the 6-way camera below multiple times.

fast money evaluation (94)

If the S&P 500 is going to drop 500 points, what difference does it make if it happens in April or July?

Judge Austerity spent the first few minutes of Tuesday's (4/5) half-time report trumpeting Lael Brainard's comments and the connection the judge had to "some of the smartest people I know" (he made that reference again at the time extra), who apparently doesn't. I don't think the stock market is sinking enough. (You see, the big money managers are still desperate¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡)

Jim Lebenthal said he is "still bullish," predicting a continued "cut around the 4,600 level."

Judge Austerity then turned to Steve Liesman and asked, "How the hell are stocks hanging the way they are?" Steve said that the market on Tuesday suggests that the Fed's entire plan has not been priced in.

In a howling line that was evidently not meant to be howling, Josh Brown said, "I would say Lael Brainard is on a mission from God to rescue Joe Biden, uh, midterm. It's going to be very, very hard for the Democrats to give any kind of display behind a president that most of the country is going to admire and blame whether it's his fault or not that's another debate, they're going to blame him if we're still talking about inflation at a high of 40 years".

Moments later Jon Najarian, who put on an amazing show, articulated how higher rates and stickiness will affect many people who are not wealthy. “This is not something that helps Joe Biden,” Doc said. “That is something that crushes you in the election.”

"I didn't say it was," Brown said, though she basically said it (otherwise why is she saying she's on a "mission from God to rescue Joe Biden's election"... Joe's mission to sink the Biden midterms and just trash talk?). "I agree with you."

Overtime's Lee Cooperman said, "I think we've had the most reckless fiscal and monetary policy package in the country's history" and there is a "price to pay." Lee made a Biblical reference to "7 lean years after 7 fat years" (so much for the "Roaring '20s"). Lee, like Josh Brown in Halftime, mentioned that inflation has historically been a "friend of common stocks."

Um, they make a new plan every week based on the data, judge.

Judge Austerity in Tuesday's (4/5) half-time report scoffed at the notion of a "moderate pivot" and questioned Stephanie Link's suggestion that we don't know exactly what the Fed will do, telling Link: " Why are we debating what they are going to do? They are telling you what they are going to do.

Steve Liesman later said, "I think what Brainard might be doing is anticipating what's going to happen in the 2 o'clock minutes tomorrow." (OMIGODE!!!!! WE CAN GET THE¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡)

Judge Austerity pestered Jim Lebenthal about cutting the UNP. Jim said that the judge is "incorrigible in the way he frames things." Jim said that he added to the HD and trimmed the UNP.

Jon Najarian had the most interesting stock price of the day, saying of TWTR: "I think this stock hits 75, 80 at the end of the year." He said he "certainly" applauds Twitter and Elon Musk for "basically opening this up again, hopefully, to freer expression on the platform."

Joe Terranova said in overtime: "We have a Fed that is against it."

Whatever happened to that SARK-greater-than-ARKK thing...

It took until the 11th minute of the half-time report on Monday (4/4) for the ref to say "try again" (which will be his favorite word for the next 4 weeks), trying to goad Jonathan Krinsky into doing the same. . Krinsky said that such a scenario "is still on the cards."

But Liz Young said, "We still have time," because "the economy is not going to go into recession with a very, very tight job market."

Young said this is not the time to "take a lot of risk off the table."

But then again, Steve Weiss insisted that the Fed has indicated it will do a "series of 50bp hikes" and only Weiss and not the rest of the market is listening.

The judge tried to force the notion that Jamie Dimon is calling an "F5 tornado (sic)" on the market, ignoring that the most important thing in the letter was Dimon's statement that government aid for the coronavirus was too much and lasted. too much (and OMIGOD DONALD TRUMP AND JOE BIDEN AND NANCY PELOSI THINK THEY ALL SHOULD GET $2000 CHECKS!!!).

Obviously not feeling enough octane in the bear field, the judge wondered if COIN, SPOT, TWLO, TDOC, SQ, U are "ground zero" for stocks to come out now. Of course, Steve Weiss agreed with that. Neither of them told anyone to buy that stock a month ago (but it's not really a trade show, is it?). And we haven't heard any calls to shorten those names.

The judge stated: "I think the Fed would be fine to put the economy into a mild recession if it controlled inflation."

Joe Terranova said he doesn't think the market will make new highs because there are "a lot of challenges ahead for this Fed."

Josh Brown was hired to discuss Elon Musk's purchase of TWTR. Brown emphasized that TWTR's board of directors is "full of people who don't even use the product."

fast money evaluation (95)

What if it was Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson pulling that joke, not Chris Rock?

There's a lot common sense tells us about the Oscars that aren't (yet) making headlines...

1. Some producer or agent (probably more than 1) has been working hard to get Will Smith and Chris Rock to agree to host the 2023 Oscars together.

2. Every broadcast channel, and probably a lot of old cable channels, are recruiting writers to make a one-off series or movie about this incident.

3. The jacket Chris Rock wore on March 27 would easily sell for 6 figures if it went up for auction today.

Let's try #3 first. Imagine having the dress Sacheen Littlefeather wore to the 1973 Oscars. (Does she still have it? She must be out there somewhere.) If the auctioneers hit while the iron was hot, Rock's jacket could fetch a small fortune, for charity or whatever. However, he cannohe wants to sell it, either because he wants to use it again one day or because he doesn't want some rich joker to use it for a laugh. You may be wondering if Will Smith's clothing is just as valuable. No, because it is simpler, and surely it will not be sold for a long time because it would accept being auctioned for any purpose.

As for number 2, we know that Apple, Amazon, and Netflix will spend massive amounts of money that don't even round up the errors on the income statement to dramatically recreate every moment of pop culture in the 21st century, only for it to fragment even further. "movie" audiences... and cable TV networks will too.

Number 1 may seem unlikely... but we're not betting on that actually happening.

Which brings us to why the slap actually happened. We heard from Smith's fans that the time was simply to stand up for a woman, which is a good and necessary motivation...annoyed right now about having to present an award on national TV?

Psst! Market evidently whispering a bottom

In a sleepy episode of the Halftime Report on Wednesday (March 30), Ed Yardeni asserted: "Stagflation is not necessarily bearish for the stock market," then added: "I think we should consider the possibility that investors are considering stocks as a hedge against inflation.

Jon Najarian said: "We are not totally overbought."

Rob Sechan suggested that the power will probably "take a break".

Kourtney Gibson said that Disney is "the best brand in media right now."

Tom Lee, in almost equally sleepy overtime, said the market "really whispers pretty loud that we've bottomed," explaining that "we've probably bottomed in the first half of 2022" on Feb. 24.

Sign of massive buying: when the judge announced on March 14 that the SARK was above the ARKK

In Tuesday's (3/29) halftime report, Jim Lebenthal once again articulated why he remains optimistic, saying the alleged "growth slowdown" may just be a "scare." (In fact, he said this twice during the show.)

That hasn't stopped other speakers, like Josh Brown and Stephanie Link, from noticing that it probably won't be a very good year yet.

Josh Brown cited "the edge coming off" of market pressure from the Ukraine crisis, but said it was just an "incredible bear market bounce" and nothing was "over" in terms of market concerns.

Link said that despite the March rally, it will be an "unsettled" and "volatile" year, "at best."

The judge noted that, in a recent appearance, Brown mentioned the prospect of a nuclear situation in Ukraine "several" times.

Despite his optimism, Jim Lebenthal said buying ARK shares now is "too risky." It certainly wasn't much of a risk if you had bought it 3 weeks ago.

fast money evaluation (96)

Not an impulse player (except when following impulse)

Someone trying to define a personal investment philosophy… probably shouldn't try to find out what Steve Weiss said in the halftime report on Monday (3/28).

"I'm not an impulsive player. I'm looking at the fundamentals. And for me, the fundamentals are not good at all," Weiss said at the start of the show.

But about half an hour later, Weiss said, "When you see a lot of momentum, like last week, I bought the SMH."

Weiss also said, "When things fall out of bed or when the market is full, that's when I go to work and buy some things." Except he didn't 3 weeks ago, but instead he still stuck to his one-year bearish/bearish outlook that has outlived his welcome.

Finally, Weiss said, "I'm having this kind of debate with myself. Maybe I should be an index investor instead of a stock investor at this point. Because if you just look at the indices, then things aren't that bad. But if you're looking at the underlying stocks, on average you're down 40 or 50%… I've managed to outperform the indices, you know, not every year, but many years.

And we are trying to figure out how the index is not "so bad", but the shares in it fell "on average" by 40-50%.

Then there was Jenny Harrington, who obviously urged everyone not to buy high-tech stocks, stating that people are "more picky" and that "now is exactly the best time to be an active manager and start being really careful and pick here." and beyond". You will have incredible opportunities."

It's interesting how a low-turnover money manager can be sure that there are "incredible opportunities" in stocks about to...start.

Even the judge was skeptical about it, stating that her producer's list of panelist moves said "none" next to Jenny's name.

Jenny said she bought MMM and FL this year. “Already in the first 2 and a half, 3 months, I already added 2, just picking and choosing,” Jenny said.

Jim's CLF is the first Call of the Year leader (a/k/a The new test that probably isn't happening)

Judge Austerity returned at the break on Thursday (03/24),

when you are not using the program as a platform to play sound bites from the previous day

and it led this page to really wonder: what the heck do you expect your optimistic panelists to say?

"Oh God, judge, you are right, I should no longer be optimistic, thank you for the resistance."

All we can think of is some producer saying in the ear of the judge, in theallshow, "Keep asking Jim if he's sure he's optimistic or else they'll give our time to the Exchange."

Jim Lebenthal was wrong in late November or December when he said multiple times that he expected the stock market to cross at the end of January. Y. It's been burning for 10 days. It is a commercial show. (At least it should be).

Judgehe mustRoasting on the grill is Steve Weiss, who made a big bearish/cautionary/bearish call for the first 10 weeks or so of the year, then completely blew out around March 8 or 11 (not the actual bottom of 2022, but time to buy), classically overstepping the welcome of the bear camp and resorting to trading the market you want rather than what you have since, completely sniffing out what was one of the best weeks to buy stocks in the last decade and was wrong to sell CLF on March 9.

Despite years of making this show, the judge evidently doesn't realize, as this page has, that occasionally the market bottoms out during turbulent times, so no one can really believe that the market is actually going up, but it is, and then, folks, you're going to spend months insisting on a "retest" that never happens (that was Jeremy Siegel later Thursday in overtime), and then you're going to keep insisting that you're doing excellent "risk management" because They're just playing the options or something.

At the opening of Thursday's halftime, Jim, who was again called "Mr. All In" by the judge, expressed his optimistic view and said he agrees with Tom Lee's optimistic view.

The judge tried to argue that the market was "just oversold" and turned to Josh Brown.

However, Josh Brown insisted that everyone be "very honest" and admit that there could be things like chemical weapons attacks in the near future, because Joe Biden actually said it is possible. (How did Brown not say that China is "persecuting" Taiwan?)

"Don't be a hero," was Brown's advice, later echoed by Bryn Talkington.

Moments later, Judge Austerity continued his routine of trying to fool anyone who is positive, demanding that Jim explain how he can be optimistic amid concerns expressed by other panelists.

Jim said there are positives and "they seem stronger than the negatives."

Jim said for the second time that there were "indications" that inflation was "coming."

Eventually, even Jim, a top-notch gentleman on the show, grew tired of Judge's routine.

"This name, or this term 'hero' has come up a lot, and once or twice you've tagged me with it. Let me be clear. I'm not trying to be anyone's hero. I don't care if someone thinks I'm their hero," he said. Jim.

Still later, the judge tried to say that Jim could "dismiss some of the issues."

Jim had the opportunity to talk about the CLF. This was his first pick at the "Stock Summit" in early January (which was not a summit) and has been a favorite of his since at least February 2021. As of December 31, he predicted the CLF would be $30 for on June 30. of this year. He has already surpassed that level. Jim is on fire and leading the pack.

'Things can really get better'

Tom Lee, the featured guest on Wednesday's (3/23) overtime show, affirmed his old bullish argument, stating: "If we avoid a recession...then stocks will have discounted more than a recession."

"We can have some positive surprises in the second half... things could really get better," Lee said.

The judge was determined to ask Overtime guests if the past 10 days had "real buyers."

In Wednesday's halftime report, Jon Najarian said it "could be" all clear, though he said he's not one of those people who is "panicking" on the downside.

"This is a tough day," Joe Terranova said, a few hours before things finally took a turn for the worse. "S&P long futures, that's how I'm playing right now."

The judge said Joe's (outdated) slate is "full of writing," which is a much rosier sign than recently when it was blank.

Joe said, "A more hawkish Fed is actually a more reliable Fed."

Losing an election does not mean that a government has been "overthrown"

"I've been negative since January," Steve Weiss said in Tuesday's (03/22) halftime report, adding that "everything" he invests in is based on "idiosyncratic stories."

It is true that he has been negative or cautious since January. Which worked very well, for about 10 weeks.

But since Pete Rose v. Gene Garber in 1978, that streak may be over, as Weiss seems to have passed his nadir, holding on to the market he wants instead of the one he has and completely sniffing out what would have been the best opportunity. trade in a year, urging people to buy on March 11 instead of arguing otherwise.

It's a little strange that Weiss has remained so dogmatic this past week given his penchant for trading in the previous 3 hours of market activity, not a bad penchant given that the Halftime Report is (supposedly) a news show. daily trading.

On Tuesday, instead of restating his hyperinflation/China-invasion-Taiwan thesis (although he mentioned both a bit), Weiss was actually talking about buying stocks, including old favorites MRNA and semiconductors.

The judge commented, "I feel like you're becoming more positive."

Weiss took issue with Judge's description of Weiss's "person." But as for the market outlook, "I don't think everything is settled right now," Weiss said.

"We are in a trading range," Weiss said.

Well, we don't "talk to CEOs all day" as Weiss says. But we do know that we have seen a certain movie many times in the last twelve years (no, not "The Social Network"), in which the stock market rises in defiance of the newspaper headlines, and people cannot believe it and walk away. to highs.

But Weiss wasn't done, and the more he talked, the more curious he became.

He said that "high inflation has brought down governments" and first said he wouldn't do that in the US, then said he "maybe he will" in the White House and/or the Democratic Senate.

Then out of nowhere came this: "There's still no alternative to stocks, so people are taking money out of stocks and foolishly selling on emotional bear ticks," Weiss said, before suggesting that "we can go further." down" than another 10%. correction.

Meanwhile, Josh Brown predicted "the inversion of the curve in the summer, uh, or early fall."

Also, interestingly, Brown mentioned Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping and suggested that they could be a problem for a long time because of the US government. “These are two men who…want to fight World War II again, want to pretend 1989 never happened. It's going to be a tough few years, especially with Biden, uh, in charge, who doesn't seem particularly willing to meet this threat head-on," Brown said.

Judge's Closing Bell Overtime guest star was Carl Icahn, who declared, when he didn't make the usual argument of terrible management in whatever his latest board battle was, "I'm in the negative," suggesting there might be one." recession, or even worse," while protesting not being able to make short-term market calls. The judge did not ask Carl about the "Doomsday" that Carl predicted in 2016.

Icahn made an important statement, at least raising the issue, about the proper treatment of animals when MCD was discussed. (This page does not take a position on this particular dispute or MCD's approach to agriculture.) Carl said "complete nonsense----" on live TV.

fast money evaluation (97)

Anyone betting on China's stock market invading Taiwan (and we doubt Weiss really is) is a bona fide jerk (a/k/a did anyone notify USINDOPACOM?)

So far in 2022, Steve Weiss has apparently been the most accurate Halftime Report speaker in expressing a cautious or skeptical perspective on the stock market.

That could be coming to an end, if last week's rally (the best in 16 months) heralds bigger things to come.

At the break on Monday (03/21), Weiss did not give up.

"I still think a cautious tone is wartime here," Weiss said. “It's, it's, it's a bit arrogant, the way I see it, for all these bulls to come in and say, 'Oh, you know all the negatives. You know all the negatives'. It's like if you're bearish or cautious, you don't have the ability to think about the positives."

Weiss went on to mention the efficient market hypothesis, saying, "So the question is, and I agree with this, what are the problems that are coming up. And those are the problems that are preventing me from putting more money in the market. And China in particular if you read over the weekend they're still determined to attack Taiwan I don't know if it's next week or next month or in 2 months but that's not Russia that's a huge global economy affecting I don't think the US will get paid for this black swan event by investing in the market."

However, FDX is a "great buy," Weiss said.

The judge then brought out Brian Belski, who seemed offended.

"Steve also argued that it's arrogant to be optimistic," Belski said. "I think you have to have faith to be bullish. It's arrogant to be constantly bearish and constantly full of fear and constantly full of rhetoric and constantly macro oriented," Belski said.

OK, fact check #1: Weiss didn't say it's arrogant to be optimistic. He said that "all these bulls" are "a bit arrogant" if they say they know the negatives.

Belski continued: "If you really do the work and the math, in the first almost 90 days of the 2022 earnings projections for the bond-based S&P 500, the number is going up. Nobody believes it because nobody did the work, Scott." .

"Are you the one who did the job?" demanded the judge.

"I'm the only one who's posted about it, Scott, because people don't want to be controversial and go deep into the numbers," Belski said.

The referee brought back Weiss, who was offended by Belski's offense.

"First of all, I was listening to a different Steve, because I didn't say anything he said. I didn't say you're arrogant if you're an optimist. I said you're arrogant if you're an optimist." You don't think that other person can see the other side."

OK, fact check #2: No, you said "all these bulls" are "kind of cocky"if they believe the negatives are known.

Weiss continued: "And publishing a document has never determined whether you're a great investor or not. So I do the work. I talk to the CEOs all day, every day. And they care about the information."

So CEOs are concerned. But first, all he said was that the "private" issue in the future is China-Taiwan.

Weiss called Belski's 5,300 a "ridiculous target" and said it was a "hyperinflation environment."

"I'm not always negative. I'm not always pessimistic," Weiss said. "I'm realistic and I focus on risk management, which is key to staying alive in this business for 30 years."

Belski had a chance to respond.

"My answer is I've been in business 32 years, I manage 7 billion 'B' dollars, most of our portfolios are outpacing Steve this year, so I put my money where my mouth is. And I really think it's ridiculous To, uh, be so negative right now, and it's ridiculous to say that we're on the side of hyperinflation I think inflation is, it's a story from yesterday.

Let's get back to what's most important here.

Weiss said that the bulls are ignoring future problems...and the first topic ahead that Weiss mentioned is China "going after Taiwan" in 2 weeks to 2 months.

Weiss curiously mentioned, “If you read it over the weekend…”. We wonder what exactly article over the weekend said that China is "willing" to "go after" Taiwan.

Weiss is possibly referring to thisThe NY Times assessment of the situation was aptly titled "Is Taiwan Next?" (although the article does not suggest it)that looks like an armchair, scribbles on the bottom of the envelope plus and minus.

Surely if Weiss has something, satellite images, leaks from China's intelligence apparatus, etc., the Taiwanese joint chiefs and people should know about it?

China was doing, and will continue to do, what it has always done: wait for the West to cede control of valuable geographic regions (that's probably the best word in this case) in Southeast Asia for 1) colonial embarrassment and 2) possible , possible, win-win economic partnership. And the West probably would have done that with Taiwan some time ago... if it weren't for those weekly missile tests from Pyongyang. And then a president arrives who likes Peter Navarro. So we go back to, say, 1993 in this process.

In addition to publishing research reports, here's a fair question: Does it make more sense to say "Hey Edna, looks like stocks may have bottomed out in February, buy the S&P"... or"Hey Edna, the CNBC guy says China is going after Taiwan in 2 months, buying Raytheon and oil" (although the guy himself didn't indicate what deals to "go after" he made).

Doc said that March 8th was a big "unloading" day in options.

Judge himself seemed offended when Jim Lebenthal said: "Even at the lows last month, when the market fell 13% from top to bottom, the S&P 500 was still up 13% year-over-year. I've been asking for a bear." market all the time. If you're following Mike Wilson, you're not making money."

Overtime for a good start

Not so long ago, the floor of the New York Stock Exchange was considered an essential part of commercial television programming, a kind of "core" activity that was, however, gradually shifting from face-to-face to online.

Now, the judge interviews people at the Closing Bell in their living rooms, and there seems to be no interest from CNBC in redirecting many of those guests to Englewood Cliffs, NYSE or Nasdaq.

So be it.

The biggest difference between the second hour of the previous closing bell and the current closing bell overtime is that the judge raised the octane of Wilfred Frost, talking much more about stocks than regulatory/corporate issues.

On Overtime, the judge had a wide range of guests (we can't really call them "panel members") who offered a healthy cross-section of one-liners per minute that beats what's heard at halftime.

There are still several shows on CNBC that focus on workplace trends, lifestyles, regulation, and/or the political landscape. These formats have always been susceptible to Another Stock-Picking Show. Which is more or less what happened at 4pm. Oriental.

The first week of overtime was pretty modest in its promos - Jeffrey Gundlach's Wednesday/Fed Day was hyped - but otherwise it was a pretty smooth pitch. Whether the judge vigorously tried to get Jamie Dimon and failed or just didn't think it was necessary, we have no idea, but okay.

So far, the judge is overseeing a success.

Ricky Sandler's Thursday (3/17) Overtime predicted a "new paradigm" that isn't just about "narrative and TAM." (This is what other people call a "risk-free market.") He predicted that the stock market ends in 2022 "here or down." Steve Weiss said at the break on Friday (3/18): "I don't disagree with Ricky." Weiss said the market is not "out of the woods" but rather stuck in a "trading range."

In the break on Thursday (03/17), Josh Brown reaffirmed: "I think we are in a bearish bull market."

Jeremy Siegel in the break on Thursday predicted "more interest rate bullish surprises."

On Friday, Weiss called out the recent downfall of the well-known P.E. the tech names "remind me of the year 2000, when the Internet bubble burst."

'Just me and Ackman being rational'

As this page likes to say, Halftime Report episodes that air an hour before the Fed disclosures are practically stale at 2 p.m. m. Eastern Time.

Judge Austerity was eager to get started on all the supposed disaster to come, just as Jim Lebenthal claimed that "things are looking really good in the economy."

Judge Austerity actually said "They look good" (earlier in the week he suggested it wasn't such a great economy before the Ukraine invasion) and questioned whether they will still look good "when the Federal Reserve starts to embark on this new regime ". .

"New Regime". That is a good one.

Steve Liesman said, "There's still substantial headline risk in this war," which, however, didn't stop Josh Brown from saying later in the show, "Honestly, I think only Bill Ackman and I are rational about how things could turn out... to go bad, militarily."

Joe Terranova said that people who bought SBUX on Wednesday were "basically buying Howard Schultz." But Pete Najarian says he's "kicking myself" for not buying SBUX around 80.

Judge Austerity pronounced "Route 80" as "Root" instead of "Rout".

At Closing Bell Overtime, Jeffrey Gundlach called the Nasdaq "oversold" and a good buy for a few months. We didn't arrive at 5 pm. Easy money.

'At least a trading background' (a/k/a Are they really making 2 hours a day of this stuff plus Fast Money?)

The headline for Tuesday's (3/15) halftime report came from Rob Sechan, who wasn't even on the show but called to express his view of the market to Judge Austerity.

Sechan stated that this is "at least a trading fund" and perhaps even a "permanent fund".

"Sentiment is extremely negative at the moment," Sechan added.

We doubt anyone for a while will echo this page and suggest that the Nasdaq 12,000 is anything like the end of March 2020 because they will all repeat, on some level, to some degree, Judge Austerity's constant resistance to HOW THEY CAN'T GO THE ACTIONS. UP WHEN THE FED IS RISING AND MAY BE MAKING SERIOUS MISTAKES!!!!!!!! (not an actual quote).

But then again, Kari Firestone opened the show by stating that it's time to buy shabby tech and start paring down things that have worked for the last 3 months or so.

Judge Austerity and Kari rattled off a bunch of Nasdaq household names, too numerous to list here; Kari said they've been hit so hard they're not even on the "bargain shelf" anymore, but they're cheaper.

Degas Wright said he likes "quality names" but "I don't agree with only buying bottom anglers." He likes MGM, but unlike Kari, he doesn't like DKNG.

The main guest was Tom Lee, who probably should have been booked for Closing Bell overtime, but admittedly didn't have much to say this time. Judge Austerity told Lee that buying the sauce "didn't work out at all". Lee said he's not really in the buying-dip camp and has been warning that the first half of 2022 could be treacherous, but going forward, "the risk/reward is very strong."

Jon Najarian said he is "completely out" of exposure to energy stocks, just bonds.

Josh Brown said this was "most likely" not the bottom and warned that "10 times in a row" inflation spikes have been followed by recessions. And this is where, once again, this page needs to say a word about the current government/Federal Reserve. If you're really betting on austerity/inflation on $600/$1,400/$2,000 checks and QE and all sorts of other goodies, you've got guts.

As far as we can tell (and sometimes we have trouble with the math), the 2/24 low of 4114.65 has not been broken.

'I just don't see the recession'

On Judge Austerity's second show of the day (3/15), Overtime's Liz Young said we're starting to see "some of that stuff" confirming the bottom of the market.

Adam Parker said "intellectually honest" twice (laughs), once about people not being able to predict short-term markets (so why do you think you can predict 2-3 year markets) and then something about comparing 2022 earnings with 2023 earnings? during which 1) we didn't hear him correctly or 2) he said down when he meant up (or something like that).

Dan Greenhaus used the term "factually honest" (chuckle) to argue that the Fed never made a soft landing.

Greenhaus insisted that stocks are expensive by any measure, except when compared to bonds.

Greenhaus said the Fed made a "big mistake" in the last 12 to 18 months.

(And actually, it was pretty crisp dialogue that probably beats Wilf Frost's interview with a bank executive.)

Judge Austerity (which is how it gets its nickname, though it doesn't actually use the term "austerity") said, "I wonder if people are fooling themselves" by thinking the Fed will become more dovish this spring and summer.

Steve Weiss called and said, "I wouldn't go in here." He bought more MU. Jim Lebenthal appeared on the show and said, "I just don't see the recession that would keep me out of business."

fast money evaluation (98)

Apoyando a Judge (pero his Tom Brady, his Mark Zuckerberg, his Bill Gross, his Dick Fuld...)

If we were to scientifically try to determine what time is most important for commercial television (actually, that's an interesting question), we might guess 4:00 p.m. m. Oriental.

It's probably the most interesting, as it takes place while most earnings reports are being released and companies are holding conference calls and discussing the market close.

But veteran viewers know that much of the excitement (so to speak) in commercial television is generated not so much by the shows themselves, but by what happens in the financial markets.

Monday (03/14), basically it was very little.

Which is too bad, because Judge's Closing Bell overtime debut, which is basically the East's noon break report, gets another round at 4 p.m. - It lacked a special touch.

While Judge has been hawking an A-list guest list this week, Monday's lineup was pretty much a typical Halftime Report bunch: Brad Gerstner, Mike Wilson, Dan Niles, Brian Belski, Victoria Fernandez. And since this is a risk averse market (maybe not for long), there wasn't much they could say other than the usual "be careful" or "don't try to be a hero" (not actual quotes from the show).

Scott Minerd, at the equally new (okay, kinda...not exactly "new"...) 3pm. Bell's closure with Sara was as publicized as any, suggesting that he is working on a "cap" on earnings.

However, the judge was excited and seems to stick with this promotion. Whether he's overseeing a stock fair... or just Wilf Frost with a Virginia accent... remains to be seen.

Sometimes it's not what the reviewers think; that's what the head office thinks. So we checked with to see how it was delivering clips from the opening episode. On the "Top Video" portal, only Brad Gerstner comments on how stocks could fall before rising. (That's the video's headline; he also said the market is "close to a tradable bottom.")

Clips of Mike Wilson hinting at titles and Brian Belski defending his market prospects were found.

But surprisingly, CNBC wasn't promoting the new show like, say, Jim Cramer's Investment Club or Shep Smith's 5-Day News reruns.

As of Monday night, there was basically no indication of a new show on the CNBC home page.

When Judge marked the so-called "10th anniversary" of the Halftime Report last October, he landed Carl Icahn, David Einhorn and David Tepper, not a bad team, especially at a time when the stock market was much more attractive.

Obviously, CNBC wants as much action on the air as possible, which makes sense (remember the "Buy, Sell, or Hold" segments with Ted David and Sue Herera?), but that also means there's a serious creative shortfall on the air. What the only real "new" idea of ​​the past few years was the Shep Smith debacle?

Anyone trying to read between the lines here must have wondered, "Does it all come down to giving Interval an extra hour or Fast Money an extra hour?"

(Because it surely seems like it should have.)

The judge, who once called himself a "story hunter" on his Twitter, usually makes the typical halftime pushback, in which anyone who expressed optimism in 2022 was met with some kind of response like " DO YOU BUY SHARES BEFORE THE FED'S AUSTERITY??????" (not an actual quote).

It would be nice if he could parlay the praise of Al Michaels and his experience hosting the Super Bowl into a few difficulties on the talk circuit.

As always, we want to see the referee and the half-time team succeed.

Stocks Can Really Go Down

On Monday (3/14) Closing Bell Overtime (I'm not sure any CNBC show needs 3 words, and it's not really "overtime" at all), Dan Niles complimented the judge and quipped, "It's still Too bad you work overtime."

The judge asked Brian Belski about Belski's bullish call of 5,300. Belski said earnings are actually improving from a few months ago.

Brad Gerstner said succeeding in stock picking is a "tough game" and "we're down for the year." But like Brian Belski, Gerstner said things could get a lot better in the next 1-3 years.

On the other hand, Gerstner said that we could "go down before we go up," a comment that picked up as a headline.

Jon Najarian called Closing Bell Overtime an "idea whose time has come". Doc bought some VIX call spreads and S&P put options.

SARK contra ARKK

The Halftime Report (Zzzzzzzz) crew on Monday (3/14) seemed to feel like they were just the opening act for this day.

(swallows and maybe forever, who knows)


Jim Lebenthal began by advocating for a cap on AAPL, saying, "I don't see how you can expand your multiple in a regime where interest rates are going to rise slowly."

He predicted that the AAPL will go higher, but the market will go "higher."

Joe Terranova explained that JOET sold AAPL on January 28 for $175.

The judge seemed more interested during the show, as he bragged that "SARK is trading at a higher price than ARKK."

"Isn't that the last sign of feeling?" The judge asked Jim Lebenthal.

Jim said, "It's a sentiment signal."

Kevin O'Leary said "we're close" to bottoming out.

Liz Ann Sonders, who, like most people in the last 2 months, has advocated doing nothing, said: "The best strategy right now is to not try to play."

Kevin O'Leary talked about BABA. Jim Lebenthal called it "non-invertible". Joe Terranova called it "options trading at its best."

fast money evaluation (99)

Jim is basically right, and March 2022 might even be March 2020.

The halftime report on Friday (11/3) quickly pitted the judge against Jim "all-in" Lebenthal in a battle for market direction.

Jim reasoned, "This market is one headline away from a jump higher" and "if you see oil below a hundred dollars in the next few weeks, this market is going to explode."

Well, honestly, we don't think it's a big deal. The market "tears" upward every 3 days. The problem is the 2 days between them.

Then, in his most compelling comment, Jim added, "Things are more likely to get better from here, not worse."

The judge complained that Jim was painting "like the most beautiful painting I've ever seen, and some of what Jim says is simply not true."

"Not the prettiest picture you've ever seen," Jim insisted.

"We were slowing down before the oil made its move," insisted the judge.

"Temporary," Jim replied, saying "Temporary" about 4 times.

Moments later, the judge made a statement thatIt can not be true:"I haven't heard anybody on this network as optimistic as Jim Lebenthal. I'm not talking about this show. I'm talking about the network (sic)."

"I think you're overreacting," Jim told the judge.

The judge continued: "It is undeniable that earnings are slowing from where they were and may continue to do so in a higher rate environment."

Jim insisted that we are only in a "mid-cycle slowdown."

Well, here's what the judge might be downplaying... None of the activity in the monstrous invasion of Ukraine, or the world's response, seems projected for the long term.Yes, it may still be a long way to go.The invaders somehow rudely imagined driving tanks around town squares while being applauded by the "liberator", found out in a day or two that they weren't going to get them and now they can't wait to go home and are looking for a way. and they like to make deals all the time anyway and will probably make another one and all, while governments have become extremely sensitive in recent years to give their pandemic-weary citizens more than enough cushion for times turbulent... and given all of that, it looks a lot more like March 2020 than September 2008... And if the judge thinks that bank legislators and governments are going to say to everybody "Sorry, there's nothing that we can do", then you have not been to Englewood Cliffs but Mars for the last twelve years.

Jason Snipe suggested that there is "more volatility ahead" in the "short term."

Jon Najarian insisted that some customers "will be calling from Walmart."

We thought we heard Dan Ives suggest that "Docusign can go below the drinking age." There. (This writer is long DOCU).

Dan Ives said that AMZN is the reason RIVN "didn't go under anymore".

Doc said, "I think all energy basically picks up over the next 3-6 months overall."

At the break on Thursday (10/3), Josh Brown laughed off his earlier rejection of the benefits of an AMZN split. "People like the flexibility of buying more of something, even if you cut it up," Brown said, talking about cutting Kit Kats into 8 pieces to half their previous length but charging $1 more. In fact, this argument suggests that any stock over $10 or more should probably be split, but hey...

Fish: gross bottom $80

The highlight of the Break Report on Wednesday (9/3) was Mark Fisher, who obviously intervened in the oil market.

"There is a significant tail risk depending on what happens in, uh, obviously Ukraine," Fish said. "We were going for 120 even without the Ukraine. That was it, what happened there advanced the whole script."

"Basically, the world is telling you that we've run out of material," Fish added, saying it might not even be reality, but "perception of reality."

"Buying the prior month's oil," like the December contracts, "is a better risk-reward trade than going ahead and buying before anyone else at this point," Fisher said.

The judge asked Fish about a previous quote about rising oil due to a "situation in Russia" in which Fish predicted a "big increase in supply" from OPEC. The judge said that has not happened yet. But, "There will be a response from OPEC. There has to be," Fish said.

Joe Terranova asked Fish if commodities should be considered an asset class. Fish said yes, suggesting that the "bottom of the market" for crude oil is $80.

Jon Najarian has suggested that crude oil can swing in the "neighborhood 110 to 140". He believes that the fertilizer business runs "for months."

Fish said buying natural gas in the winter is "the best risk/reward trade on the board."

Brown gets mRNA for $125

At the Wednesday (Sept. 3) halftime report, Josh Brown was not on the panel, but called to explain that he bought MRNA. He said he hit his "ridiculous" sale price of $125 the day before. (He also said he's at a "75% drop" from his all-time high, which would no doubt lead Mel to wonder if she ever "deserved" to be that high, if she were the guest host.)

Brown said that if there is another variant, the stock "could easily go up to $200."

Longtime MRNA fan Steve Weiss also called, endorsing the exchange and stating that it was the only time he wanted Brown to continue speaking. "I think there are a lot of advantages," Weiss said, conceding that "maybe it was too it's too cheap."

Weiss just bought FDX and "added" XPO. However, he sold CLF. Weiss said commodities were selling news when Joe Biden announced the ban on Russian oil, and Weiss believes the CLF "jumped." Longtime CLF fan Jim Lebenthal, who was on the show, said it's "very volatile stocks" but he's holding his own.

Sarat Sethi talked about AXP and UBER (this writer is long UBER).

Joe Terranova said he bought MAR (Zzzzzzz). Joe said Wednesday's market action allows people to "finally look ahead" and realize the "enormous pent-up demand" about reopening. All very well, but we remember hearing all about these "reopening" talks a year ago.

The judge said he "cannot remember" a time with this kind of "whirlwind of activity" in the panelists' negotiations to start the show.

'There is no background'

In the halftime report on Wednesday (Sept. 3), the judge asked Chris Hyzy if Feb. 24 is the end.

"If you pick the right time frame, it's one of the funds," was Hyzy's not-too-convincing reply.

"You're going to have multiple funds. There's no right fund, we all know that," Hyzy added.

We've been trying to process that quote ever since Hyzy said it, and honestly, we're not quite sure what it means.

Jon Najarian said he saw Lee Cooperman at the Wall Street Billionaires Conference in Palm Beach; Doc said that one of Lee's options is COOP (presumably the company has nothing to do with Lee's last name).

Meanwhile, Doc is still "buying up a ton of energy stocks."

Brenda Vingiello said: "The economy continues to be very healthy."

The judge read a quote from Rick Rieder, who was not on the show, in which Rieder said he is taking a "measured" approach by "saving a fair amount of money for now" but is prepared to use it.

'Around 4,000' for S&P

The judge's break report on Tuesday (3/8) basically continued his double advice don't buy/don't short. (So ​​why would they need a program other than the unusual options activity detected by Market Rebellion?)

"It's treacherous," Jenny Harrington said, adding that "2022 is going to be a very difficult year" and this will be an "asynchronous solution (laughs)."

Bryn Talkington suggested that the S&P support level is "around 4,000" and perhaps "300 for the Q's."

The judge didn't say a word about Ackman's World War 3 claim

In a slow, tepid and stagnant start to the breakout report on Monday (3/7) that resolved almost nothing, strangely no one was calling for shorting the market.

Steve Weiss stated, "I still think there's a lot of optimism out there."

"Don't buy yet, it's not time to buy yet," Weiss advised. But moments later she added, "Don't start selling now."

Well, if there is still "a lot of optimism", isn't the market down?

Weiss later said, "You don't have the Federal Reserve behind you anymore." It's okay, right. #anotherFedcallbasedon2.5daysofttrading

(Weiss did not say anything this time about China "going after" Taiwan.)

Josh Brown said: "It's clear as a bell that we're in a statistical bear market for most stocks." However, Brown questioned why anyone would want to start being bearish on stocks now.

Joe Terranova stated, "We're in the middle of a U-shaped recovery." When the judge asked him to explain, Joe mentioned "exacerbation" several times.

Ed Yardeni told the judge that he believes it is a stagflation environment; "It's getting a bit like déjà vu with the 1970s."

Yardeni, however, suggested that Jay Powell got a "relief" from how tough he has to be on inflation. Yardeni does not see a "Volcker 2.0" (of course it will happen again) from this Fed.

Despite the turmoil in the world and markets, Yardeni said corporate earnings would hold up "reasonably well."

Weiss said that he bought SBSW.

The judge and Phil LeBeau addressed Adam Jonas's note about car production limits, as well as the clip where Jim Farley tells Phil, "Don't bet against Ford." The judge said: “I don't necessarily need Jim Farley to say, 'Don't bet against Ford.' That's great, what else is he going to say? Tell me where you're going to get the nickel.

Jonathan Duskin was on the show again to talk about KSS. He said Wall Street was just as disappointed in the company's agenda as Macellum. The judge, however, suggested that "these gains were not bad." Duskin said he didn't think the numbers were that good, saying the company is employing a "high risk strategy." Duskin also said that the company is not doing anything with its real estate. And this is a pretty boring corporate battle.

At 5:00 p.m. m., Fast Money, Guy Adami again praised the second half of this year, saying Monday's oil move bears the "marks" of a "blowout top."

Is China waiting for the invasion of Ukraine to end before starting to "go after" Taiwan?

Immediately on Friday's (3/4) halftime report, Bryn Talkington made people laugh with a stock catchphrase that read, "There's no bad weather; it's just a bad wardrobe."

Jim Lebenthal said the S&P 500 is in a "slight correction" but doesn't feel pain if it's in "value and cyclical" plays; instead, the pain is in ARKK's actions.

The judge said that "38% of the S&P is in a bear market."

(At the end of the show, Jim suggested buying the S&P 500 Index as his final trade. The judge pointed out that Jim was saying at the beginning of the show that you need to dig below the index level. Jim said in that case, he chooses CLF. )

The judge made a geopolitical prediction. “So the story is not getting better. In fact, it's about to get worse," the judge said.

Jon Najarian went into a long military history to brag about how he couldn't believe that "some people" believed it would be a "quick and minor incursion" from Russia.

Doc said "no way" you should be buying "flying" stocks.

(Unless they appear on HeatSeeker).
fast money evaluation (100)

Weiss insists: 'You can't pick stocks', but you're pretty sure it's not one (a/k/a, it doesn't matter if you're 'investing' or 'trading', if the stock is falling, you shouldn't not buy)

The judge opened Thursday's (3/3) halftime report by asking Josh Brown if Citi's claim that the fund is in is correct.

Brown gave a very long answer but did not answer the question.

Steve Weiss said he gives C "more credit" than others who said "buy every dip" on the way down.

"You can't pick bottoms, you can't pick tops," Weiss said, a curious comment about a program that purports to make short-term trading calls.

But then, as for the end result, Weiss said, "I don't think we've gotten there yet." (But they're impossible to choose anyway.)

Weiss said that "in a perfect world" he would like to see the P.E. get to 14 or 13. But, "I'm not going to wait for that." Jenny Harrington later misquoted him in that comment, something Weiss corrected.

The judge said that Pete Najarian told the producers that the Citi call is just a "burger with nothing on it." Pete thundered that this is a great trading environment, but it is "very, very difficult" to "invest".

But of course it's not hard to invest when someone buys a lot of calls on something. Pete likes HOOD, because someone bought all 12 calls.

Judge wondered if people shouldn't buy when the market is "tough." Weiss made another, no less, call, stating, "There's not enough blood on the streets."

Josh Brown's professional microphone, by the way, is the most impressive, something all speakers should have invested in at the start of the pandemic (not that they couldn't afford it).

'2/24 could actually be the bass'

In the Fed's narrowed range report on Wednesday (2/3), Jim Lebenthal said the key word is "resolution."

Jim said that once the conflict in Ukraine becomes "more clear" in the coming weeks, it will be time to "dust off the 'all-in' moniker."

Joe Terranova said "we now have this guidance" from the Fed that the market covets, though he admits that the Fed's direction may not be the right one for the long term.

Steve Weiss said Jerome Powell made his approach clear on Wednesday. "All he cares about is controlling inflation," Weiss said, but as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, "inflation has gotten much worse."

Tom Lee, usually the main guest whenever he goes on the air, said that March 15 was just a "formality"; Lee said Powell made an "increasingly dovish move" and that "2/24 could be the low of the first half."

Brian Belski said Powell "did a masterful job today."

fast money evaluation (101)

time to go home

In the breakdown report on Tuesday (3/1), Jon Najarian said: "We're going to see 120 oil very quickly if this keeps getting worse in Ukraine."

"Well, there is no reason to believe that things in the Ukraine are going to get better, certainly soon," the judge said.

It's probably too much to hope that this monstrosity in the Ukraine could suddenly end in a good way. Because of the heroism on the streets of Ukraine, it is not impossible.

The ideal development for the West is basically this: "Okay, if you reopen our banks, we'll go home."

In fact, it can come to that. For now, as Russia's dictator and those who serve him are faced with the choice between slaughtering humans in their homes or making a deal, there are likely to be backroom conversations that say something along the lines of "If you lift all sanctions and promise not to admit Ukraine in NATO, let's go."

This is a first offer (renewed). But the West is very strong here. Possibly there are, perhaps with a little creativity, ways to reverse these tanks, never to cross that border again, Kyiv intact and prosperous.

Meanwhile, in the break on Tuesday, Josh Brown said he remains convinced we're "in the middle of a real bear market" but hopes we're "at least halfway there."

Jenny Harrington said FL "dropped like a godsend" in her portfolio on Friday.

Bryn Talkington has called Russia a "Third World country with First World nuclear weapons."

Ed Yardeni said in Tuesday's halftime report that perhaps the uglier things get in Ukraine, the better the chances of "a negotiated ceasefire and maybe even a solution."

fast money evaluation (102)

welcome back judge

The judge was again in charge of the half-time report on Monday (02/28), fortunately quite optimistic, after a not so mild case of COVID-19.

The judge posted on Twitter last week: "Triple vaxxed and still feel like crap with Covid. Day three severe sore throat. Can't imagine this without the shot."

Many CNBCers have contracted COVID in recent years, and luckily, as far as we know, more often than not, it's not even newsworthy.

The judge's messages are a reminder that this disease still exists, is still capable of destroying lives. These messages came just as CNBC was announcing that the judge will introduce the second hour of the closing bell, to be called "Closing Bell Extra Time," beginning in early March. We can't wait to see the launch.

We are happy, like the team at the break on Monday, that the referee is up and over again.

Jim: The bottom is in

The judge opened Monday's (2/28) halftime report by asking Jim Lebenthal if we can "definitely" say the bottom is in.

Jim said "yes" and ignored any tweets about how he could be a "jerk." (Our suggested fix: Don't read Twitter.)

The judge asked Joe Terranova if he agreed. Joe said "I love Jim's confidence" but Joe is "selling" due to a "risk management perspective" where he believes institutional investors believe the market is already in an "upset".

The judge didn't think Joe answered the question, so he asked again. Joe said, "I don't know the answer to that," but a retest of the lows is possible due to "what appears to be man-mad" in Russia.

Pete Najarian called it "an amazing trading environment."

Jim said he would not take any defensive action at this time, but would let them "cool off for a few days." Joe Terranova, however, said that several defense stocks can be bought "today." Joe quoted the expression "oversold markets don't crash."

‘Onshoring will be very disinflationary’

Panelists on Friday's (2/25) Halftime Report, hosted by Melissa Lee, weren't sure it was time to dive into the stock market.

Steve Weiss said he's taken the sheets off but still has "a bunch of cash."

Jon Najarian compared the current rally to the 2016 Election Day night rally. But he said "we need to get through the war" until the market can see "much more appreciation." He said he would sell prospects "aggressively."

Amy Raskin called the market "slightly overvalued."

However, "in the short term, we've probably blushed enough already," said Liz Young.

Brian Belski said he likes to doubt this market and of the 29 corrections since 1970, "only 7 of them turned into bear markets."

In fact, Liz Young asked Belski to "put it up high."

At one point, in an economic point that needed much more follow-up, Belski said: "The relocation will be very disinflationary."

The Halftime Report's most provocative comments on the situation in Ukraine were heard on Wednesday (2/23) as Sully's guest host. Jim Lebenthal said: "Two months from now, do we really think we're going to be worried about what's going on in eastern Ukraine? I don't think so, okay. Let me be clear, I don't think so." Jon Najarian said, “Well, Brian, you talked about 1994. We also promised Russia at that time, as well as Ukraine, that we wouldn't continue to expand, uh, NATO to surround them. And then we went back to that." I promise. Am I surprised that the Russian leader is opposed to this? No way. I think someone at some point would be opposed to this because, you know, we're putting them in a box. And to They don't like being in a box. I'm not. I'm just saying that's the reality, Brian.

So 'go' after 'Taiwan' came down to 'stepping up the conversation' about Taiwan

Josh Brown in the Thursday (2/24) halftime report had a great memory of Maria Bartiromo's delivery on CNBC.

"She would start every interview with, 'So are you putting money to work here? Are you putting money to work here? You're putting, she never got a no."

The reason? "Professionals who manage long and fully invested funds need to buy," Brown explained.

Brown correctly noted that Steve Weiss, arguably the show's most prominent market skeptic in early 2022, "was right" about being "somewhat nonchalant" about the market this year.

Weiss and Brown actually shared a friendly exchange, with Weiss saying, "This is a lot like Pavlov's dog," where the market falls and "people think they have to buy."

Meanwhile, Weiss spoke again about China and Taiwan, twice in fact, first saying Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a "big move" followed by China making a "big move on Taiwan." Later in the show, he brought up China-Taiwan again, though he said China doesn't need to "invade physically" but just "raise the conversation about it."

So is China's "big move" as opposed to Russia's "big move" saying the same things about Taiwan that it has been saying for 70 years? And should we delay buying shares because of this?

We couldn't help but be skeptical when Bryn Talkington said that "going back to Vietnam, the day of the invasion was a day of buying, not selling," as if one had found almost unanimous data on this issue, looking at all the global skirmishes that spawned. headlines in the last 60 years.

Bryn also set himself an interesting challenge: explaining the PTON stock ceiling with a tagline. Bryn said he believes PTON will stay in the 1930s and 1940s and not go back to the 100s "because it's ... they sell equipment with an expensive subscription model."

Hmm. That kind of description really sounds impressive. If he had said "It's just another fitness fad that goes away with the pandemic," it would have been a better argument.

Mel challenges 'the price is true'

When it comes to commenting on the stock market, there tends to be a serious recency bias, in which any past stock price that is markedly different from the current price should be considered "wrong" in some way.

That was the case on Thursday's (2/24) halftime report, when Josh Brown told host Missy Lee about buying HR.

Brown said RH was "almost $750 a share" for some time, but bought it Thursday morning for around $360. Mel said she didn't want to "delay" the conversation, but "just because the stock was at $ 700 and something". , doesn't mean it should be $700 and something."

"What do you mean should?" Brown wondered correctly.

"Maybe it was too expensive at the time, maybe it never deserved that valuation, I mean... The idea that you're buying it for half price implies that it should have been that price to begin with," Mel said.

Well, she's wrong. Lee is right to strongly suggest that the term "half price" is false. But "the notion" that a stock is "half price" implies thatrecover your old height,not that it should have been less a while ago.

And Brown didn't call it "half price" or put something like a $750 HR target. He simply said it's "very attractive" for him to buy "very high quality stock" at "half the price that sold a few months ago.

Evidently (#momentumtradingwarning), Lee thinks that any stock that falls "should" have fallen weeks or months ago.

HES, Joe Terranova's favorite stock "pegged" to the oil price, was at $64 last August, $95 now. Does that mean that last August it didn't "deserve" to be that low?

Pete Najarian called the market rally from midday "pretty extraordinary"; he should have seen what the Nasdaq did at 4pm.

In other words, it is a risky market.

Evidently, the Interval panel is contractually bound to mock high PE. technological actions duringallepisode; on Wednesday (2/23), it wasn't even Jenny Harrington, but Joe Terranova.

Joe claimed that there was a "dynamic shift" (laughs) where "we come back to this stock market being the stock market of your fathers and grandfathers," saying that the fallen non-profit tech stars "are not coming back."

Of course. Tech stocks never go back up.

Jim Lebenthal, who in November and December kept insisting that the market would be fine until the end of January, apparently laughed at all those guys who have the audacity to buy stocks on their own, emphasizing that "this is really a profession." that "some investors" are learning "the hard way".

fast money evaluation (103)

Joe still likes to say 'penalty box'

Given everything that's going on in the world, the halftime report on Tuesday (2/22), hosted by Sully, had all the sense of urgency of a... preseason game.

Jim Lebenthal opened by assuring viewers, "This is what a solution looks like."

Josh Brown said that no one on television, neither Russia nor the United States, really knows what is going to happen in Eastern Europe. But he said he likes to "bully sell" strong market bears, a good point he's made before.

Joe Terranova suggested that retail investors "are probably participating a little more than they should in this environment."

Joe also emphasized the difference between a "price correction" and a "time correction."

Jim said that there is a kind of return to normal life; "People are outside, that's fine. Crowds are everywhere."

Joe went back in time to find one of his favorite catchphrases and said to Sully, "Brian, there's this place, called the penalty area. And I believe in the penalty area. And now, I have a lot of names that are in the penalty area."

Sully and Stacy Rasgon shared a good joke about staying in business for the long haul.

Josh Brown made a comment we wish Steve Weiss was around to hear: "ESG is great because there really isn't a definition. You can basically say that whatever you're doing is ESG and feel better about yourself for the rest of the day." "

fast money evaluation (104)

Clip of Joe weighing in on BA's share price appears in the 73rd minute of Rory Kennedy's Boeing documentary 'Downfall' on Netflix

Netflix this week released “Downfall: The Case Against Boeing,” a documentary by Rory Kennedy about the 737 Max crashes.

"Downfall" includes commercial television clips, including Dennis Muilenburg's interview with Fox's Maria Bartiromo... and a Halftime Report discussion of Boeing's stock price (see image above).

In a catchphrase that lasts less than 3 seconds, Joe Terranova says, "This is a company that yes, 500 is a reasonable number."

Based on on-screen stock price information, we believe this episode aired on Thursday, August 16, 2018 (2 months before Max's first accident). The files here didn't make a "complete" report for that day, but there are a few sentences about it and we know Joe was on the show that day. Who could have predicted that a seemingly forgettable stock price assessment would surface years later in a movie? On that day, an analyst likely gave the stock a $500 price target, though we couldn't find an August 2018 article online indicating this.

Kennedy must not have seen the April 26, 2018 Halftime Report, in which a different panelist opined that the Boeing CEO should get a "standing ovation every time he walks."

Documentaries often convey a point of view. In "Downfall," former Boeing engineers and some outside observers trace the 737 Max tragedies to Boeing's acquisition of McDonnell Douglas in the 1990s, suggesting that Boeing cared about quality while McDonnell Douglas cared about quality. the stock price mattered more and, ultimately, the CEO of McDonnell Douglas. Harry Stonecipher would run the entire company.

Corporate documentaries often find material from commercial television. Think about all those 2008 Too Big To Fail productions you watched with pictures of Dick Fuld smiling (last we heard from him was something about the sale of a mansion in Florida last May - this page urged the judge to get an interview with Fuld, with no apparent success), or the fall of Enron or WorldCom, or even the famous "", over those guys with the ridiculous company "govworks" who bragged about their internet business on CNN and were seen as billboards for the point. -bubble of communications.

"Downfall" reminds us that something went terribly wrong on an elite airline, that there were hundreds of souls on those planes, and that their survivors deal with these tragedies every day.

'We are in a bear market'

In the quiet but informative halftime report on Friday (2/18), Josh Brown indicated that these are not the best times on Wall Street.

"We're in a bear market. We're in a correction. It's not over yet," Brown said.

The judge mentioned some comments from the Cathie Wood interview the day before, including the supposed 5-year time horizon. Stephanie Link said that while she agrees with much of what Wood is saying, she doesn't think a 5-year outlook is "a prudent way to invest, frankly."

In the category of profanity that escapes the censors on live TV, Dan Nathan on Friday's Closing Bell (2/18) pointed to the decline of Spotify and other high-tech stocks, saying "this time it's not about Wall Machine Street." but instead, "investors have lost their minds here."

In fact, it all comes down to what the recipes are.

The guest star of Thursday's (February 17) halftime report was Cathie Wood, who the judge announced at the start of the show would be "live and taped." (As if a live TV interview could be "off the record").

The judge gave Cathie several impressive opportunities to make long, uninterrupted statements, though some speeches later on the show might have been interrupted.

Cathie said her biggest concern is investors turning "temporary losses into permanent losses."

She said she was seeing "a lot of analysis" on ARKK's performance, but that people were "handpicking dates" and pointing to strong returns over long ranges.

Cathie said today's investors are "running for the hills" in a "risk-off" environment, but if she's right, "they're running to the past." In this case, these "hills", the reference points, "are where the risk is".

Cathie said that with a 5-year tenure, she is managing a "high-value portfolio," a term people don't often associate with ARKK.

The judge questioned whether any of Cathie's picks that fell would see their previous highs again. Cathie insisted "absolutely" and even "beyond".

The judge said there was "no question" that Cathie's ventures have transformative value, but shortsighted, he said "it all comes down to the price we are willing to pay."

The judge also asked about the ETF that Cathie is betting against. Cathie said the ETF is "shorting innovation" and "They're not doing any research either. They're just cutting innovation."

Bryn Talkington asked Cathie why MRNA was not in the bag. Cathie said that she is now "watching him closely" and that when she looked at him in 2020, her assessment went too far.

Josh Brown asked some good if lengthy questions about inflation and whether some of your top picks are really that innovative. In a lengthy response that was ultimately cut short by the judge, Cathie said she sees "major deflationary forces" in the tech space, "and I think the bond market is in tune with that."

At the end of the show, Cathie suggested that the hit to her share class was a "hysterical reaction" to higher interest rates.

The judge asked a big question as to why Cathie sold TWTR after recently endorsing it. Cathie said it wasn't one of the most damning actions of hers.

Overall, a quality interview with a highly watched investor. This page said a year ago that Cathie should perhaps consider retiring on top in early 2021. Give her credit: she's still doing it, even if the stars never align for her investment brand like they did in 2020.

'Very good when you pass the ratings'

Viewers of Tuesday's (2/15) halftime report were treated to a dandy from a Donnybrook about the oft-beleaguered BA.

Steve Weiss in the early moments of the show was trying to say that the stock market is the same as it was 3 days ago, only to be interrupted by the Boeing news of the day.

After Phil LeBeau's report, former BA Jim Lebenthal stated that the FAA has been "slowing down the American economy here" and has kept the company in the penalty area, but the 787 move "seems to me like it's game over."

Sarat Sethi agreed, stating that the FAA move is "much more political" than anything of "real substance."

Guest host Mel responded to Weiss, who said he sold a "very small" amount of BA during the report because management has been "completely incompetent" and, as for Dave Calhoun, "the job is too hard for him."

Weiss added: "Clearly this is not political" and the "FAA is concerned."

Jim chimed in: "If they were concerned about safety, they would have grounded the 787. They didn't. It's not about safety. Just stop. It's not about safety."

Weiss insisted: "Jim, you are wrong. They grounded all the planes until they were inspected."

"You don't know what you're talking about. The 787 is fine," Jim said. "You are really wrong."

"This is not about safety," Jim emphasized.

This caused Mel to interrupt and ask Jim, "If it's not about security, what is it about?"

“The FAA is still clearing the egg from 3 or 4 years ago with the 737 Max certification,” Jim said. "Actually, what that does is allow the planes to start being delivered again."

Mel later told Weiss that the FAA's announcement brings "clarity" to the aircraft delivery process. "But it delays delivery," Weiss said.

Moving on, the Morgan Stanley guy gave his latest bi-weekly stock market forecast; Steve Weiss said the Morgan Stanley guy gets a lot of "bullshit" for his view of the market, though he was "very right when you beat the indices."

Jon Najarian praised investors who profit when they think they should, without worrying about taxes.

Mel asked Sarat Sethi about Greenlight's betting against Tesla. "It's definitely a risky trade," Sarat said, calling it a "very dangerous sell."

Leslie Picker reported that David Tepper has strengthened his holdings in M ​​and KSS. "He sees omnichannel," Weiss explained.

Jim Lebenthal called DKS "intriguing".

Weiss did not say anything this time about an invasion of Taiwan (see below).

Is anyone else planning a war after the Olympics? (a/k/a What happened to Judge's 'changing of the guard' from Brady to Burrow?)

On Monday's (02/14) halftime report, Mel was the guest host of the Super Bowl judge, but didn't find nearly as many fireworks as associated with the last 2 drives of the big game.

Echoing one of his themes from the past few months, Steve Weiss said that Xi and Putin had talked and "Xi said, 'Hey, we wish you all the best in Ukraine and why don't you keep going because right after the Olympics they finished, we go after Taiwan".

Yes of course.

We have never heard on CNBC before that China will "go after" Taiwan.

Joe Terranova has opined at times that investors have become "somewhat complacent" with the regularity of V-shaped rallies.

Jenny Harrington again complained about ZOOM and SNOW (they are not CSCO). (This writer is long ZM.)

fast money evaluation (105)

Super Bowl cross-promotion (otherwise people may not know it's on TV)

This Super Bowl weekend, the guest star of a (sort of) Los Angeles-focused halftime report on Friday (2/11) was legendary broadcaster Al Michaels.

"I've never seen the NFL as hot as it is right now. It's the national conversation," Al said.

Michaels said of Cincinnati: "They're the hot team right now. There's no question about it."

Urged by the judge, Al reminded viewers that he bought FAS 10 years ago "as a day trading stock" and "it's gone crazy" and "I can't get rid of it... 10 years later I still have it." .. a grand slam at home.

But "who knows" what happens to stocks in general, Michaels said.

Gundlach: 33% chance at 50

In Friday's pre-Super Bowl halftime report (2/11) (it's NBC's broadcast year), Jeffrey Gundlach, who hasn't been on the show for a while, said he doesn't think the coaches are in the stage yet. leading to a 50 basis point hike by the Federal Reserve.

Instead, Gundlach suggested a "1/3 probability" of a high of 50. He said there is "an almost perfect relationship" between the 2-year time frame and what the Fed does.

Gundlach said he is not a crypto investor, it is not in his "DNA" and is "very volatile." He said that owning it is "like owning the Nasdaq with 5x leverage."

Gundlach quoted "The Sun Also Rises" when commenting on credit spreads.

He said he thought the Rams would win the Super Bowl when they acquired von Miller and predicts a margin of "at least 2 points."

fast money evaluation (106)

Shouldn't the referee wait for the Bengals to win before declaring the changing of the guard?

Jim Lebenthal in the halftime report on Friday (2/11) told the judge that the "base case" was 50 basis points. But Jim said "a lot can change" before March 15.

"They're going to depend on the data," Jim said.

Kourtney Gibson said that if the Fed doesn't want to do 50 basis points, "they don't have to."

Pete Najarian predicted "more" than 4 rate hikes.

Sports business expert Marc Ganis said he believes the Denver Broncos' price will "start at 4."

Ganis said Dave Tepper "voted almost 2.3" for the Carolina Panthers.

Speaking with Al Michaels, the judge stated that Super Bowl 56 "in a way" marks a "changing of the guard, if you will" from Tom Brady to Joe Burrow.

fast money evaluation (107)

Weiss suggests that the judge think of Tom Lee as "a god" (aka all those "below" market stocks).

Before anyone starts thinking of Tom Lee as a "god", remember that Bitcoin-$100,000 call.

That was Steve Weiss's message to the referee in a halftime report on Wednesday (9/2), which largely fell flat after about 10 minutes.

Things started with a curious “audible”: that would be Joe Terranova's sudden turnaround on his call just 2 days before the stock market retested its January lows.

Joe offered a curious analogy of paying too much attention to the front 7 while "the opportunity was in high school." Joe said what made it "audible" was the "breadth" of the market.

"I apologize to the viewers for Monday and for saying that I was worried about large-cap stocks," Joe said.

"I don't think you have to apologize to anyone," Judge told Joe. And this is true. But it's a good reminder that anything heard on the show could be... well, thrown out before long.

The judge bluntly asked Kari Firestone if we were going to retest the lows. Kari said cautiously, "I think it's possible that the index, the S&P, could retest the bottom," before adding curiously that those stocks that are down 30-60% are "bottom right now." moment" or "they have established their minimum". " "

We think this means that the already hammered ones, specifically one of their favourites, PYPL, are not going down much further. (This recorder is long PYPL).

Steve Weiss made his occasional speech where he said stocks go up "90% of the time" (Translation: Tom Lee doesn't need to call "audibles") but by the way, Weiss doesn't buy markets, he buys stocks. and stocks that are supposed to be "below market" (giggle) (whatever) have been "in a bear market."

The judge brought up Tom Lee's latest prospectus. Weiss removed Lee's $100,000 Bitcoin call last year, leaving the judge in near disbelief.

"None of you got all the calls you made right," the judge explained to Weiss.

"The guy's not a god, Scott," Weiss said. "You may not agree with me, but he is not a god."

"Whoever said so," said the judge.

"Well, the way you talk about him is with great flattery, and I don't blame you," Weiss said.

"Great flattery?" said the judge.

The judge blamed Weiss for not allowing "a little levity" on the show.

On Tuesday break (8/2), Jason Snipe said he left FB after owning it since January 2018. Snipe cited the "big flaw" in MAUs and also a flaw in DAUs, guidance that "wasn't great." and "increased competition." And we can't help but wonder, if Snipe had made a big buy to sell FB before the earnings report, would he now be thinking it's still a sell or wondering if it's worth buying back? #you know

fast money evaluation (108)

looking for the right word

The judge and the guest hosts of the Halftime Report ignored Ukraine as a topic, which says all you need to know about the perception of how much financial markets care about the current state of affairs.

One guy who can't ignore this is President Joe Biden, who has been forced to weigh in on this slowly unfolding situation on an almost daily basis, often offering the same message: that there are clearly a million ways to define "invasion." .

"Invasion" is a powerful word. The West said that Germany invaded Poland and France; He did not say that Germany invaded Czechoslovakia.

The New York Times called Russia's entry into Crimea in 2014 "annexation." The Associated Press reported last November: "Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014."

The Wikipedia page is titled "Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation."

Wikipedia also refers to the Soviet "intervention" in Hungary in 1956. (See how endless creativity?)

Biden revealed his own indecisiveness, and presumably that of the US and Western governments, on this issue at his January 19 press conference (and note the words in bold italics) when he stated: "So, I think that you, oh, what we will see is that Russia will be held to account if it invades.And it depends on what you do.A small raid is one thing and we end up arguing about what to do and what not to do, etc.”

On Monday, at a press conference with the German chancellor, it was: "If Russia invades, it means that tanks and troops will cross the Ukrainian border again."

Perhaps the "invasion" is determined by the number of people fighting back.

It appears that Mr. Biden reserves the right to tag this apparent military initiative with whatever term is more in line with America's preferred response.

We can only wonder what it is.

Joe: Potential Megacap Tech Pushback

In one of the best shows in weeks, the Halftime Report panel on Monday (7/2) took a look at the state of the markets, and none went as high as Bryn Talkington, who pointed out something this page has pointed out multiple times over the months. . .

Bryn said he doesn't know how interest rate hikes "heal supply chains."


(See, the idea is that, in general, people and companies make a little less money and won't want to buy as much stuff, so maybe fewer people will want the Chevy Silverado that Mary Barra doesn't have available to sell at all.) modes, although most people don't have the Federal Reserve's discount window to get their daily cash allotment).

Steve Weiss said he agrees with this and that Talkington's point "really resonated."

Bryn suggested that it "might be healthy" to do a double bottom.

He also added one to the quote book, stating: "There's a saying in our business, you know, that concentration creates wealth and diversification preserves it."

Joe Terranova said he expects a retest of the January lows. But perhaps adding too many extra words to a very simple point, Joe asserted: "The markets are now trying to figure out what really matters most in terms of retail and institutional ownership."

Joe suggested that investors could “wind down” some mega-cap technology.

The judge was heard saying "continued correction (laughter)" in the first few minutes.

Weiss went out of his way to call the Morgan Stanley guy "correct" and insisted, as he has in recent appearances, that the stock market hasn't done "anything since last July."

"I remain pessimistic," Weiss said.

Jon Najarian said he will sell the break "for a period of time" and appeared to question sending 3,000 troops to Europe "to deal with" the 130,000 Russians on the Ukrainian border.

Najarian said of the sanctions targeting Vladimir Putin, "I don't think that's going to stop it" and that Russia has an interest in pushing oil above $100. Doc predicted the Fed will make several quarter-point hikes, but will be "in a hurry". to reach 4 rate increases.

On the subject of Meta, the "talking" stock of the week, Doc stated: "Google is just as dirty as Facebook, maybe dirtier, because they can set the trends right on that huge library of YouTube videos and so on. (yes) Scott."

On Friday, all Weiss said was that his purchase of NFLX was a "very small business position."

Here is a conversation that went on for a long time.

The judge in the halftime report on Monday (2/7) said that "once again", he has something to work out with Steve Weiss, something that left the judge "confused".

The judge said that last Thursday, Weiss bought NFLX, calling it a "long-term deal." (Nobody actually called this "long-term trading" on Friday, at least not from what we heard when reviewing the exchange.)

"I think one of us is having trouble following the other. It's not me," Weiss interrupted the judge Monday.

"I just want to make sure we're on the same page right now," the judge said, before revealing that he learned Monday that Weiss was "discontinued" from the NFLX.

Weiss said that in "trading, unlike main positions, you put in levels, at least I do, to control your risk."

"I made a trade," Weiss added, insisting that his purchase of the NFLX was a "trade" and not an "investment," which is what he said Friday.

Judge wondered how a "long-term trade" could have a "stop that is too tight." Weiss said that he moves his stops in general, which is "what good traders do." And he wondered, "How much do you want me to put in there to protect my negative side?"

"I don't want you to do anything," said the judge.

"Well, apparently you do," Weiss said, declaring that his business is "good risk management."

Without exactly taking sides, Jon Najarian said: "We're all focused on managing risk."

The judge actually said that this excessively long conversation serves as a "Trade School".

fast money evaluation (109)

Weiss: The 'real areas' of the country are not necessarily what you see on CNBC

If you expect FB sellers to go overboard on Thursday (3/2), Steve Weiss has another idea.

"I think Facebook is overrated here," Weiss said in Friday's (4/2) halftime report. "It's a hated company." (If it's so hated, why doesn't someone create a competitor that isn't hated?) (This writer is FB long.)

In the broader market, Weiss wasn't interested in entertaining Dan Niles prospects (although it sounds the same as Weiss, being in the money), instead Weiss said "all you need to know" is that stocks they came up in an "easy world". monetary policy, and now we're overturned.

The judge, back after a few days, at first gave Weiss's claim of friendship with Niles good reason, but then let it go too long.

Weiss said that if he "walks away" from the people who normally appear on CNBC, "including me," who tend to be "the upper end of society in terms of what they earn and the world they live in," and If you dig deeper into "the country", you'll see people being "crushed" by seemingly high energy prices.

(Yes, it's the Federal Reserve's job to make us 1) want to buy less oil and 2) want to buy fewer things that contain computer chips, which 3) will obviously keep prices from going as high. Surely, they will succeed in this.)

As a result, Weiss said he sees "terrible risk/reward" in stocks.

However, Tom Lee called and insisted that it looks like a "risk" for the market, due to the jobs report, oil, Bitcoin, and because many people "essentially panicked" raising money.

The judge said that Lee predicts a "13% profit in the next 6 months." Lee stated this.

fast money evaluation (110)

If Facebook is so bad, why not just invent a competitor and put it out of business?

Thursday's (2/3) halftime report, hosted by Dom Chu, devoted a fair amount of time to what's wrong with Facebook.

Incredibly, no one mentioned Cambridge Analytica. (This writer is FB long, unfortunately, but not by much.)

Josh Brown said Meta made a "classic strategy mistake" by changing the company's name "to something that doesn't even exist yet."

Perhaps, although we don't know, someone has stopped clicking through to your Facebook news feed because the company is now known as "Meta."

As for another FANG, Brown said he "can't imagine" how this past quarter could have been one of AMZN's best, given the headcount and cost pressure SBUX has reported. Well... (this review was posted early Friday morning).

At the break on Wednesday, Pete Najarian called GOOGL's 20-1 split a "big problem" and suggested that something other than earnings was responsible for the reaction to the earnings report.

Pete said there may be fractional shares available, but people "still avoid it."

Pete also said that the PYPL guidance was "absolutely appalling" and that he is "shocked" at how poorly it is being managed, even "beyond words". (This writer is long PYPL, unfortunately.)

Remember back in November, when Pete constantly said that AMZN's ownership of RIVN was "greatly supportive." Evidently not as good as it actually came in at $170 that month, but now it's only $60. (But it's just 1) Peloton 2) Teladoc 3) Docusign, which are "high PE or no PE." that you should avoid).

"Today we see about 100 May bonds being bought," Pete said Wednesday of the RIVN.

fast money evaluation (111)

Hall of Famer could resign from 5-year government and elect Brady next week

Tom Brady's retirement, depending on when you started hearing about him, might not come as much of a surprise.

But what happens next can be.

Hockey put Wayne Gretzky into the Hall of Fame the year he retired. With the annual NFL Hall voting on Super Bowl weekend, it makes perfect sense that the same thing could happen to Tom Brady.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday's (1/2) halftime report, Josh Brown was asked by guest host MLee about GOOGL, perhaps not realizing that the last time this action appeared during a Brown-Stephanie show Link, Brown was insisting that Stephanie would buy more than $3,000. This time, there was no exchange. They both said it's a great company. Stephanie said that when she sold it, she made "a lot of money."

Brown said tech stocks that went from 300 to 120 and rely on ZIRP won't go back to 300 any time soon.

Jon Najarian stated that "the 2-year timeframe is doing the job for the Federal Reserve." Doc said that he is "maintaining the JETS" (this writer is a member of several airlines) and said that lately there is interest in reopening a lot of businesses.

Doc said FB management needs to show they can hold the company together; However, from the way he spoke, it seemed that Najarian would be more interested if the company was spun off.

Mel led the panel in an interesting roundup on the future of electric F-150s and other vehicles and the automaker's direct sales potential.

Josh Brown said that INVH is his favorite dividend stock.

Doc said that he and Pete will cover the Super Bowl "for Peacock."

Return to the CNBCfix home page


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  2. Ebooks. Find a niche market and write a great ebook. ...
  3. Drop-shipping. Ecommerce is exploding. ...
  4. Online courses. ...
  5. Blogging. ...
  6. Traditional real estate rentals. ...
  7. Peer-to-peer lending. ...
  8. Affiliate marketing.
10 Nov 2017

How can I earn money by mobile? ›

You can start an online store to earn money from mobile. Most things can be done from your phone, such as taking orders, shipping products, etc. You can design the storefront on your phone and put up your products on any e-commerce website.

How can I earn through Google? ›

You can connect a Google AdSense account to your search engine to make money on contextually-relevant ads placed into the search results. Advertisers compete for placement in the search results, and when someone clicks on one of their ads, you can make a portion of the revenue.

How do you get 100 dollars fast on Cash App? ›

If you operate Cash App to make a direct deposit of your paycheck, you can earn $100 for free. You will want a unique routing number and account number to use Cash App, as well as a valid physical address. You can earn as much as $100 a day on this way. You may also be able to earn a couple 100 dollars per referral!

How do you trigger bonus on Cash App? ›

Open your Cash App and tap the Activity tab, then tap Invite Friends to invite friends to try Cash App. When someone new to Cash App creates an account, enters your reward code, and sends a qualifying payment from a newly linked debit card, you'll both get a bonus.

How do you get unlimited money on Cash App? ›

Cash App lets you send and receive up to $1,000 within any 30-day period. You can increase these limits by verifying your identity using your full name, date of birth, and the last 4 digits of your SSN.

How do you get the 2022 stimulus? ›

To get the advance payment, you must qualify for a 2022 School Tax Relief (STAR) credit or exemption and have a school tax liability that's more than your 2022 STAR benefit. Your 2020 income also must be $250,000 or less.

Are we getting money from government in 2022? ›

If you are eligible, you will automatically receive a payment. Payments are expected to be issued between October 2022 and January 2023.

What is the easiest government loan to get? ›

If you need help paying for school, federal student loans (under the Direct Loan program) are probably your best option. They are easy to qualify for, they have competitive rates, and they offer flexibility when you're getting on your feet (and when you face financial hardships in life).

How can I get a instant loan in 5 minutes? ›

The best way to get an instant loan in 5 minutes is to borrow from a friend or family member since they can give you cash or use an electronic transfer service to send you money immediately. No reputable companies will send funds to you within minutes or even 1 hour after you apply.

Can you make 100 a day with Swagbucks? ›

You can make a lot of money on Swagbucks in a day. Depending on how much time and effort you dedicate to it, you could very well earn $100 in one day. There are quite a few ways to earn. On Swagbucks, you can play games, take paid surveys, and search the web to earn rewards.

How much does Swagbucks pay monthly? ›

Most Swagbucks users can earn $100 to $200 a month. You'd need to log in or use the app for 10-25 minutes a day to reach a figure like that. There are many free offers you can complete (i.e. signing up for new free apps or for gig economy offers like Uber Eats) that pay $100 to $200 — or more.

How much does Swagbucks pay per hour? ›

When users complete a survey, Swagbucks pays its users between $0.05 and $2.50 (and sometimes as much as $25 – $35). Based on our research, “sometimes as much as $25 – $35” is incredibly rare. Instead, the average person seems to earn only $1 per hour answering surveys on Swagbucks.

What online survey pays the most? ›

Here are the highest-paying online survey sites to earn extra cash in your spare time:
  • 🏆 Branded Surveys.
  • Swagbucks.
  • LifePoints.
  • Survey Junkie.
  • Inboxdollars.
  • MyPoints.
  • Ipsos i-Say Panel.
  • Toluna.

Can I earn money by watching videos online? ›

Ans – There are various apps like Swagbucks, InboxDollars, Irazoo App, PrizeRebel, MyPoints and Nielsen Computer and Mobile that allow you to watch videos and earn money. All of these apps are extremely safe and easy to use. You can use these apps whenever you're free and earn some extra money online.

How many dollars is 50 bucks? ›

Historical Exchange Rate Graph for BUCKS to USD

The conversion value for 50 BUCKS to 0.537 USD.

What surveys pay instantly? ›

15 Best Surveys that Pay Cash Instantly
  • Branded Surveys.
  • Swagbucks.
  • LifePoints.
  • Survey Junkie.
  • InboxDollars.
  • MyPoints.
  • Pinecone Research.
  • Ipsos i-Say.
25 Oct 2022

Does Survey Junkie pay instantly? ›

A PayPal transfer from Survey Junkie can happen instantaneously. You can also redeem your rewards for electronic gift cards as soon as you're ready.

How can I get money from PayPal instantly? ›

Click on Transfer From PayPal To Your Bank Account. At a Glance: To withdraw money from PayPal, (1) log in, (2) click Transfer Money, (3) click Transfer From PayPal to Your Bank Account, (4) choose Instant or Standard, (5) type in the amount you want to withdraw, (6) click Next twice, (7) click Confirm.

What do you understand by value of money and how it is determined? ›

So, what is value for money? Value for money has been defined as a utility derived from every purchase or every sum of money spent. Value for money is based not only on the minimum purchase price (economy) but also on the maximum efficiency and effectiveness of the purchase.

Why do we measure value of money? ›

Money as a measure of value, helps in determining the value of goods and services in the economy. Money is taken as the common denominator while measuring the value of goods and services in the economy. Therefore, with the help of this function everything can be measure in a common denominator or unit.

How do you find the value of money in economics? ›

You can use the following formula to calculate the time value of money: FV = PV x [1 + (i / n)] (n x t).

What does it mean to understand the value of money? ›

The value of money is its purchasing power, i.e., the quantity of goods and services it can purchase. What money can buy depends on the level of prices. When the price level rises, a unit of money can purchase less goods than before. Money is then said to have depreciated.

What are the 7 qualities of money? ›

The characteristics of money are durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply, and acceptability.
Let's run down our list of characteristics to see how they stack up.
  • Durability. ...
  • Portability. ...
  • Divisibility. ...
  • Uniformity. ...
  • Limited supply. ...
  • Acceptability.

What are the 4 main functions of money? ›

Money serves several functions: a medium of exchange, a unit of account, a store of value, and a standard of deferred payment.

What are the 5 functions of money? ›

The following points highlight the top six functions of money.
  • Function # 1. A Medium of Exchange: ...
  • Function # 2. A Measure of Value: ...
  • Function # 3. A Store of Value (Purchasing Power): ...
  • Function # 4. The Basis of Credit: ...
  • Function # 5. A Unit of Account: ...
  • Function # 6. A Standard of Postponed Payment:

What are the 4 E's in procurement? ›

These are economy, efficiency, effectiveness, and equity. Box 1 gives a description of the four E's.

What are the types of money? ›

Economists differentiate among three different types of money: commodity money, fiat money, and bank money.

What is the most important feature of money? ›

Medium of exchange.

Money's most important function is as a medium of exchange to facilitate transactions.

What is the formula of money? ›

The formula is 1/r, where r is the reserve ratio. In short, it is the reciprocal of r. When r is the reserve ratio for all the banks in an economy, then 1/r is the potential increase in the money supply. As the required reserve minimum goes down, the money multiplier goes up.

What are the 3 types of interest? ›

What are the Different Types of Interest? The three types of interest include simple (regular) interest, accrued interest, and compounding interest.

What are 3 concepts you know about money? ›

There are a few money concepts everyone should know by the time they're 30 if they want to build wealth. Compound interest, bear market and bull market, and diversification are important terms for investors. Net worth, interest, and inflation are good for even non-investors.


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