Experts look forward to the new year in fintech (2023)

While crypto chaos may have stolen the spotlight for the better half of the year, fintech has also had a rough 2022.

Battered by the global macroeconomic climate, valuations plummeted and the second half of the year was plagued by a myriad of tech layoff stories.

Startups and unicorns are facing hard times, with the poster boys of yesteryear falling to their knees.

Klarna, while remaining bullish on earnings for the year ahead, looks to barrel losses, while companies such as Brex, Stripe and Plaid have cut significant numbers of staff.

Despite all this, Revolut and Starling banks continued to grow, going through the news cycles with big announcements of new products and earnings.

Falls in valuations and rises in rates and inflation caused funding to dry up, becoming the enigmatic "dry dust" in the all-time highs.

Many aren't sure what to make of it, and some see the backlog as a source of hope and potential, even if it's a bitter pill to swallow for millions of start-ups reeling and drowning under mounting economic challenges.

As if trust levels weren't low enough, a campaign to demonize the fintech industry for "causing" significant levels of PPP fraud in the US has added additional headwinds.

While it may seem like a hellish year for fintechs, it hasn't all been doom. Significant progress has been made in developing the underlying technology and regulatory landscape for some areas. Experts see banking and B2B products across sectors showing strength despite the ongoing storm.

Among the mob of fear, uncertainty and doubt, leaders are identifying nuggets of hope for the year ahead.

Connected payments are a big step forward

Andrew Jamison, Ampliar's CEO and co-founder said banks would offer more help to SME management solutions, and neobanks would partner with or buy fintechs directly.

“Incumbent banks are now poised to deploy digital on-demand expense management solutions, just as startup competitors are feeling the funding pressure and tighter budgets through 2023. The result will be stronger relationships between banks, small and medium-sized businesses. companies and the well-established banks they know and trust.”

The use of the virtual card will be accelerated. Businesses have embraced virtual cards to pay vendors, track and bill spend, gain visibility into spend, and more. But there has not been widespread acceptance of Apple Pay and Google Pay at physical checkouts, not all banks and card networks have allowed the addition of virtual cards to these services.

“Industry analysts say this 'last mile' challenge will not last. They predict that the global number of virtual card transactions via mobile payment methods will grow from 5 billion in 2022 to 53 billion in 2027. We will see a breakthrough in this area in 2023.”

Integrated payments will enter its "2.0" era as companies connect vital assets: their core software platforms and the credit card issuers of their choice. Embedded financial services accounted for $2.6 trillion in US financial transactions in 2021; by 2026, that number is expected to exceed $7 trillion.

“A growing network of connections between card issuers, processors and networks will become a de facto standard. With “connected payments” on the horizon, we'll see software vendors offering payment solutions off the card payment rails, banks strengthening relationships with their business customers, and users reaping the benefits of payment functionality without the friction of change management. ”

VC will be back, Arc Technologies said.

Don Muir, CEOand founder of Arc Technologies, said the market's tone would change after the Fed eases.

"My bet is that the effective federal funds rate will peak at about 5% in the first quarter of 2023, and then I expect rate cuts in the third quarter, fourth quarter of 2023. We will see the return on equity investment risk as market at the end of 2023".

“I think we have tough times ahead for startups, particularly those that have a short history. But if you can weather the storm over the next 12 months, I think there's a light at the end of the tunnel in late 2023 or early 2024. And I hope the VC comes back strong and blows away all that dry dust that's on the sidelines. ."

“I am incredibly optimistic about the founders' technology ecosystem. I've met with thousands of software founders over the past two years, and the level of resilience, the resilience, the hustle I've seen in good times and bad gives me conviction that the market will come. It will come back strong for the second half of next year.”

O ano do B2B BNPL

JifitiCEO and co-founder Yaacov Martin said the B2B BNPL space would explode.

“Within the B2B BNPL space, there are two segments and we expect both to develop almost separately through 2023. One is where companies need BNPL when purchasing office furniture and the second is where companies need working capital.”

“These two use cases are very different from each other. People who shop for businesses are also consumers in their own right and require the same easy access to finance for their business purchases.”

“We expect to see these two cubes or segments grow. Specifically, we expect greater and easier access for small and medium-sized businesses looking for working capital, especially when subscribers can access their historical transactional data."

booming digital bank

Director of Financial Health at LendingClub,Anuj NayarHe said the tailwinds of a bad market are waning and will separate the weak from the chaff.

“Current market conditions are acting as a force to separate the top performers from the struggling ones as we move into 2023. It seems to me that the fintechs that are successfully navigating this faltering economy are those in the digital banking space, especially those with a bank letter, the lack of which appears to be negatively impacting resilience.”

“We have seen that by offering a variety of services, fintechs are setting themselves up for success with a variety of tools to navigate the current macroeconomic landscape and better support the next generation of banking customers.”

“These services include traditional banking offerings such as high-yield checking and savings, as well as technology solutions and new ways to deliver expense management and corporate cards. It is often forgotten that a strong, customer-focused debt collection capability is a prerequisite for success in a downturn.”

“Fintech M&A increased in 2022 with TD Bank/First Horizon deals. As the cost of funds rises, this trend could accelerate dramatically. Well-capitalized buyers are still looking to accelerate their exit from a possible downturn through acquisitions and consolidations.”

“The CFPB recently proposed a new rule under Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act on open banking and consumer data rights. The proposed rule will empower consumers to "break up" with banks that provide poor service, giving consumers greater access to their financial records. This rule could create a huge opportunity for fintechs and banks, removing some of the current friction in the market."

“This could help break consumers' tendency to pay too much for credit and earn too little from their bank accounts. It could also help consumers switch to fintechs and banks that offer lower loan rates and pay higher interest rates.”

Venture capital investing in fintechs that help SMEs

Although Eniolorunda, CEO and co-founder of TeamApt,He said the VC slowdown and the disappearance of external funding has led fintechs to cut costs, which will continue into the new year.

“In contrast to the 'growth at all costs' mentality that characterized 2021 and even the first few months of 2022, unit profitability and economics are now at the top of the priority list for investors around the world. We expect this "do more with less" attitude to continue through 2023."

“On a more positive note, we continue to see great progress in the digitization of SMEs, especially in emerging markets where these companies are the lifeblood of the economy. VC money tends to move along the SME digitization value chain, from payments to business management tools.”

“I think over the next 12 months, VC activity will start to pick up. The only thing that will stick around will be longer timeframes to invest as VCs will be interested in doing in-depth due diligence. Valuations will continue to be tied to a company's fundamentals, such as its unit's economics. There will be a focus on high quality transactions where business models are proven.”

“We expect the tailwinds around cashless transactions to continue to drive the adoption and penetration of fintechs that fill a gap or address customer pain points in these areas. Furthermore, regulators will be more interested in adopting newer innovations, particularly those closely related to cryptocurrencies, given the recent turmoil in the ecosystem.

“Consolidation will begin in the fintech space in collaboration with larger banks and fintechs forming strategic partnerships with smaller ones. Fintechs need to focus on the customer experience to ensure they continue to protect their customers from fraudulent activity in the months and years to come.”

Integrated Banking Marqeta

Randy Kern, CTO da Marketa, said that 2023 would be the year of integrated banking.

“I hope that 2023 will be the year when traditional banking services finally start to reach the consumer where he spends most of his time, integrated into existing brand experiences. A younger segment of the population may have very limited interactions with physical cards and bank branches, rather than doing most of their banking over the phone.

“With recent stress-tested integrated financial solutions reaching critical mass, everyday banking services seem to be increasingly integrated into non-bank brands. Whether it's peer-to-peer, B2B, lending or services, I hope the banking industry finally reaches out to the consumer wherever they are and focuses on providing a seamless experience."

Integrated finance will help B2B pain points

Seth McGuire, CRO da Galileo Financial Technologies,He said that integrated finance would help solve B2B pain points.

“Integrated finance, an industry estimated to be worth $7.2 trillion by 2030, has seen rapid adoption. While consumers have experienced growth through the adoption of digital payments, companies are rushing to add financial technology to their go-to-market strategy.”

“Integrated finance presents immense opportunities for business leaders looking to solve the real pain points of B2B payments while creating sustainable new revenue streams. Part of this opportunity is due to the faster, easier, and more recursive nature of embedded systems. Still, part of that is the additional data and valuable insights that can be captured and leveraged through these customer interactions.”

The evolution of payments will help B2B

Brandon Spear, CEO da TreviPay, said payments would help providers access more customers and platforms.

“The future of B2B payments is an easier path for all vendors to have access to platforms and capabilities that allow them to expand the types of customers they want to serve across multiple locations. The key will be to recognize that companies don't have to solve all these problems independently.

“Often there is an inherent desire to have a complete ecosystem or customer platform, but this is less likely to succeed for B2B transactions, given the complexity and cross-border nuances. Merchants need to put the needs of their commercial buyers at the center and understand who they can collaborate with to solve the problem.”

“Partnering with a purpose-built B2B billing and payments provider is likely to be the fastest way to get an easy plug-and-play experience for enterprise customers.”

Tools and AI will help SMEs

Chirag Shah, CEO, and founder of Nucleus Commercial Finance, said easier-to-use tools and AI would help entrepreneurs.

“While investment and operating costs will likely remain an area of ​​concern for entrepreneurs in the coming year, it is highly anticipated through 2023. Through more innovation and investment in fintech, we should see the delivery of tools that are easier to use than show the real benefits of AI. This should include streamlined accounting systems, forecasting tools, competitive benchmarking, and debtor and creditor management.

“Along with this innovation, over the first half of next year, SMB entrepreneurs will also begin to feel the first impact of the metaverse.

“This will allow fintechs to create a more personalized and immersive experience, providing an emotional connection to customers' digital journeys, offering a bank branch and a more personal environment, helping to enhance the 'face-to-face experience' with customer relationship teams. client." the client and also informing the investment. consultants when talking to customers.

Identity verification will help stop fraud

Tommy Nicholas, co-founderand CEO of Alloy, said the fraud would only go away when regulators and banks found out.

“The current macroeconomic headwinds will present new challenges for the financial services industry, but the looming consumer debt crisis is overblown. The real problem is fraud. Some say that fraud increases during economic downturns, but fraud has seen the biggest increase over the past two years despite a strong macroeconomic environment. Fraud will continue to rise and companies will be forced to address it.”

“Regulators will demand that banks do more to combat P2P payment fraud on their platforms. Political actors such as Elizabeth Warren will lobby to apply Regulation E to P2P transactions on banking platforms, meaning banks will be required to reimburse customers for losses suffered from fraudulent transfers. If the banks figure out how to fight this fraud on their own, the discussion may subside, but if not, regulators will force them to do so."

“Fintech companies that did not have sustainable economic units from the start will not survive next year. For example, companies that offer non-revenue checking accounts will no longer be sustainable as venture finance dries up.”

“These companies often lack overdraft or recourse fees, which can work for good consumers but is bad for scammers who hoard withdrawals without any intention of depositing money into your account.”

you will come back

Bernhard Blaha, CEO do The People'sSCE, said VC would come back and blockchain would have to rename it.

“This year has been a very interesting ‘stress test’ for the fintech industry in general. There has long been a view that fintech is perennial and unaffected by recessions or global economic downturns, however, when fintech companies are traditionally structured, i.e. with a series of owners and the need to raise capital to grow, many have stopped. .

“That's because access to capital has declined across all industry sectors. Funding for the 2022 Mega Round reached $4.4 billion, the lowest level on record since 2018, according to the latest CBIInsights report. Likewise, fintech unicorn births have dropped below double digits for the first time since 2020, with just six new unicorns in Q3 2022.

“This means that companies looking to dominate fintech may have a good idea, but their business structure may hold them back. The past few months have shown significant gaps where blockchain technology meets centralized custody. I see this as a highlight as, more than ever, it shows the importance of taking control of wealth away from a few controlling entities and giving it back to the people, a development we have seen in recent years and which I hope will continue. ”

CBDCs will be big

Richard Turrin, author of "Cashless" and fintech, AI and innovation consultant,He said CBDCs are the near future.

“With around 95% of the world's central banks investigating CBDCs, it is clear that we all have a shared CBDC future. While only around four CBDCs have been launched now, recent statistics from OMFIF show that we will have 24 in the next two years and likely 36 in five."

“China's CBDC is the most ambitious and I predict it will be launched in 2023, making it the first launched by an economically critical nation. The European Central Bank is not far behind and we could see a digital euro in 2027. We are looking at a future where CBDCs will be used for both domestic and international payments.”

“The international use of CBDCs is causing global geopolitical concern as CBDCs do not use the traditional SWIFT transfer network, which supports US and EU sanctions. All BRICS nations will have CBDCs within the next two years, and it is reasonable to assume that they will start to “de-dollarize” some of their trade using CBDCs.”

“I like to say that digital RMB or other CBDCs don't need to drop the dollar to be effective; all they have to do is provide an alternative. The best example of this is looking at fintech markets, where fintech has not knocked out established banks, but lower prices or better services have caused incumbents to change their ways.”

“China's digital yuan and CBDCs issued by BRICS countries will do the same for currency markets. Offering an alternative to traditional dollar transfers will force cardholders to be more competitive and reduce costs for everyone.”

doctor Jonas Gross, president of the Digital Euro Association, agreed, saying that three CBDCs could be launched globally.

digital euros: The ECB will complete its research phase on the digital euro in September 2023. It will then be decided whether the project remains in the development phase and whether a digital euro will be issued. I hope the decision is to launch a digital euro. However, this will require considerable time. I think an introduction in 2026/2027 is realistic.

yuan digital: The digital yuan is a step-by-step rollout in China. Testing and gradual rollout has been going on for over two years. I would not be surprised if the digital yuan is introduced in 2023 nationwide.

CBDCs around the world: Espero que mais países comecem a explorar o CBDC e que muitos países que já o exploram continuem em fase de desenvolvimento. Além disso, acho que até três CBDCs serão lançados globalmente.

economic unit

Trevor Marshall, CTO da Current, said that in the new year the union economy, profit and excellent partnerships will lead to survival. He said his company's recent partnerships with Visa and Zero Hash would take them far, and the company plans to launch its credit card in the new year.

“Credit is an important area of ​​focus for us in the coming year. A lot of that is because people are starting to have some financial difficulties when it comes to the price of eggs when it comes to gallons of milk, the real assets that they have to spend, and we're going to go into the market with some credit options and features. differentiated.”

“Our customers ask for a big focus, like increasing their credit score, which is short. It is not necessarily a means to an end. We want to be able to provide liquidity between paychecks. We think we can help alleviate a lot of financial stress. We already do this with our commission-free overdraft program, which helps link our customers across paychecks. And then think about how this expands to credit agreements”.

“We've shown that every change you can make, for example every monthly retention percentage change, is highly transformative for the economics of these units. We put a lot of thought into what features we can add, just investments in your platform. Whether it's building trust through easy-to-understand transaction history and balance, or other insights to help manage spend. These are all things our customers have come to expect from us, and encouraging you to use these capabilities more in the coming year is a big part of our roadmap.”

He said adding cryptocurrency trading through zero hashing helped with retention, and moving all transactions under a Visa partnership highlighted the unit's savings. Unfortunately, he said, many users would see the forces of the recession driving their spending habits. Marshal said the first option would likely be a secured credit card to build credit and then move on to others to increase retention rates and customer lifetime.

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