ASX posts small gains to start the week, NAB at least gives another rate hike, as it happened (2023)

• ASX 200: +0.1% to 7,267.1 points
• All Ordinaries: +0.1% to 7,460.5 points
• Australian dollar: +0.5% to 66.79 cents
• Nikkei: +0.8% to 29,626 points
• Hang Seng: +2% to 20,028 points
• Shanghai: +1% to 3,303 points
• Dow Jones (Friday): flat at 33,301 points
• S&P 500 (Friday): -0.2% to 4,124 points
• Nasdaq (Friday): -0.4% to 12,285 points
• FTSE (Friday): +0.3% to 7,755 points
• EuroStoxx (Friday): +0.4% up to 465 points
• Spot Gold: +0.2% to $2,014/ounce
• Brent Oil: -0.2% to $73.98/barrel
• Iron ore (Friday): +3.6% to $102.10/tonne
• Bitcoin: +4% por $27,488

Hola -Stephanie Chalmerspopping up to bring you the closing numbers.

Ofthe local stock market has made gainsfor his first session of the week, but in no substantial way.

A positive note to start with though after posting a weekly gain last week.

The ASX 200 is up 0.1 percent, after a lackluster start gaining some ground all afternoon.

Property,materialsInenergywere the best performing sectors of the session, whilefinanceleft behind, dragged down by the losses ofANZ(-4%) inMacquarie(-2.4%) is traded ex-dividend, as Michael explained above.

The most outstanding action of the session wasAsk, after receiving an enhanced takeover bid from a private equity group.

Here are the rest of the major engines:

Some local data will be out tomorrow, with the Reserve Bank's board of directors minutes, which could shed some light on that unexpected rise in May, and the monthly Westpac Consumer Confidence Index.

david chauHe will be with you tomorrow morning with a summary of all the movements in the foreign market.

A report on a scandal that may have cost taxpayers millions in lost tax revenue will never be published.

Former PwC tax expert Peter-John Collins was ousted from his profession after helping the government draft new laws to prevent multinationals from dodging taxes... and then using that information to create strategies the consultancy would aim to target. those companies.

Report for September

The consultancy has announced that former Telstra chief executive Dr Ziggy Switkowski will investigate PwC Australia's "culture, governance and accountability" following the allegations.

Dr. Switkowski has previously led investigations into the Essendon FC supplement saga and the idea of ​​Australia embarking on a nuclear power industry.

In a statement, the company welcomed the hiring of the respected company executive.

Dr. Switkowski will consider all aspects of PwC Australia's governance, accountability and culture, including how the company applies its professional values ​​and ethical standards in its work.

The independent review looks at how decisions are made and monitored within PwC, including how financial goals, values ​​and strategic objectives are balanced and prioritized. It examines how partners and employees are held accountable for their responsibilities and assesses the values ​​and behaviors that exist at all levels of the company.

The public will never see the full report, which should happen in September 2023.

Upon completion, PwC Australia will share a summary of these key recommendations to ensure transparency.

Former CEO Tom Seymour leaves PwC

The statement also announced that former CEO Tom Seymour, who stepped down last week, will leave the partnership in September.

New boss Kristin Stubbins says the company is determined to "learn from our mistakes."

"Dr. Switkowski will have access to all the people and information he needs to conduct a rigorous and robust evaluation. We look forward to receiving his report and quickly acting on the recommendations."

The biggest client of the company is you: the taxpayer. He billed the federal government for more than $500 million in contracts over the last two years.

Collectively, top consulting firms, including KPMG, EY, Deloitte, McKinsey & Co, and others, receive billions of dollars a year for work done on behalf of taxpayers.

It's still not an absolute certainty, but TPG's upwardly revised offer has won the board of directors of funeral home Invocare.

The private equity firm seems to have one foot in the grave.Invocare's board expressed support for the offer of $13.00 per share, including a fully paid-up dividend of up to 60 cents per share that could bring tax benefits to many shareholders.

The most recent offer is a 45% premium to Invocare's share price immediately before the first offer, but it's a relatively small increase over the original offer of $12.65 a share that was rejected.

The new offer prompted Invocare to open its books for TPG to perform due diligence., but there is no guarantee of a binding offer if the private equity firm finds financial skeletons in the closet.

If it happens, the deal givesInvocare has an enterprise value of $2.2 billionshow that death is in ill health.

This seriously feels like Friday again. Why did I bother to come today?

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The ASX 200 Index is now up 0.1% at 7,262, with the All Ords flat at 7,454.

The big banks have cut their losses.

ANZ has still lost a little more than its 81p dividend value, but Macquarie would be up were it not ex-dividend today.

The National Australia Bank is slightly above, although the CBA is still down 0.5% at $98.47.

Big miners have also taken gains since midday, with BHP rising 0.9% to $43.88, while Rio Tinto is up 0.7% to $108.69.

ANZ economists Brian Martin and Tom Kennyhave put together a useful summary of the US debt ceiling debate and default risks.

They are a bit more relaxed than Rabobank's global strategists, but not by much.

Here are some high (or low) points:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that if the debt limit remains unchanged,the government's ability to continue spending with extraordinary measures will run out in early June. In that case, many government employees would not receive their pay, Social Security and other payments would be in jeopardy, and the Treasury would not be able to borrow money. Recession risks would rise considerably."

How bad can it be? A lot, according to the latest forecasts.

“The consequences of a default would be disastrous.

"The US Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) estimates that a brief bankruptcy would cause a 0.3% rise in unemployment and a 0.6% contraction in GDP. Protracted bankruptcy would lead to a 5.0% rise in unemployment and a 6.1% drop in GDP.

“Bankruptcy would also lead to a sharp increase in interest rates and wreak havoc on all financial markets and the real economy in the US and internationally.”

So what do ANZ economists think will happen?

"We believe the most likely scenarios are:

1. An agreement for a longer period of time.We see a limited chance (less than 10%) of a longer-term deal to lift or suspend the debt limit along the lines of the Republican bill.. For now, the parties are too far apart and there is little time on lawmakers' agendas to reach an agreement before the X date.

2. A short-term commitment.We think an agreement to suspend the debt limit for a few months is the most likely outcome (around 90%).This would be a similar outcome to what happened in October 2021, when Democrats and Republicans agreed to raise the debt limit by $480 billion. This would be enough to provide financing until December 2021 or early January 2022. On December 14, 2021, the House of Representatives and the Senate passed a bill raising the debt limit to its current level of $31.4 trillions.

3. No deal and US defaults. According to the United States Department of the Treasury, this never happened. Since 1960, Congress has taken 78 actions to increase, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit.We believe there is around a 1% probability of default.A recent Chicago Fed document states that data on credit default swap (CDS) spreads imply a probability of default of 1%. This would probably be higher now, as CDS spreads are slightly higher compared to when the article was published."

So the most likely outcome is another kick in the future.

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Michael Every isn't the only Rabobank analyst who's good with words.

Your Sydney Outsiderbenjamin picton, offers a wonderfully disturbing comment on the growing divergence between the one-month and two-month US Treasury yields as thedebt ceilingapproaches and theUS Government Debt Default Risksmountain in june.

"The 1-month bills are paying 5.42% this morning compared to 4.78% for the 2-month bill," he said.

“There is a comic element to the market that tries to reflect the increased credit risk of short-term US government securities in traded yields. At one time this would have been ridiculous, but we live in interesting times.

“The scenario we are considering now is deeply binary.The yield premium on checking accounts is a bit like collecting pennies for a steamroller.in the context of a potential default that would reverberate in a global financial system based on US government debt securities that constitute a "risk free" investment.

With commercial real estate and regional banks in the US already reeling from rapid currency tightening, how much more debt crisis can merchants' nerves take?What value are assets if risk-free rates turn out to be fraught with risk?"

That last question in particular could, and should, keep many asset managers and policymakers awake.

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Some Interesting Observations on the US Banking Crisis ofJamieson Coote Bonds, an Australian investment house.

They believe we are in the midst of a "slow US banking crisis" stemming from rapid rate hikes that "start a chain of events that will not have a natural conclusion under current policies."

"Initially, this crisis was caused by a large outflow of deposits,expose the weakness of fractional banking in a rapidly changing digital world where depositors can changefrom a low-interest account to another bank or money market fund (or high-yield short-term bond) in the blink of an eye," they wrote.

But they also argue that the crisis has as much to do with short sellers chasing quick profits as it does with the fundamental strength, or otherwise, of the banks in question.

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"While fundamentals are tested (tight monetary policy)this is a highly profitable strategy for speculators, with the only material risks being a ban on short selling of shares or the full guarantee of all bank deposits by the US authorities.– both would generate a huge squeeze for those trying to profit from bank depletion.

"While such a policy change may take place to counter this short selling by regional banks, they continue to face an ongoing problem regardless. People are not moving their money out of fear of losing deposits; everyone assumes that, in Ultimately, unlimited insurance must be guaranteed or guaranteed." a deal struck over a weekend, especially as we get closer to the US presidential election cycle, but they are moving your money on deposit because it takes 30 seconds to transfer it from an interest-free checking or savings account to a bank account money market or a high quality bonus account that can yield north of 5.00%".

Perhaps Australian banks, currently facing an investigation by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission into why many deposit rates cannot keep up with rising currency rates, should take note of the risks of deposit flight to seek more competitive returns.

ASX 200: -0.2% to 7,242 points

All ordinary: -0.3% to 7,433 points

Australian Dollar: +0.2% to 66.57 cents

Nikkei: +0.4% to 29,507 points

Hang Seng: flat at 19,624 points

Shanghai: -0.6% to 3,253 points

Dow Jones (Friday): flat at 33,301 points

S&P 500 (Friday): -0.2% to 4,124 points

Nasdaq (Friday): -0.4% to 12,285 points

FTSE (Friday): +0.3% to 7,755 points

EuroStoxx (Friday): +0.4% up to 465 points

Spot Gold: +0.1% to $2,013/ounce

Brent Oil: -0.7% to $73.67/barrel

Iron ore (Friday): +3.6% to $102.10/tonne

Bitcoin: +3% a $27,232

I have a strong feeling of deja vu today as I also spent most of Friday on the market blog.

The market opened, fell slightly, and is about 0.2% down.The ASX 200 stands at 7,241 points.

Sounds familiar?

The only thing that might make it creepier is if he picks up late to finish a bit higher.

The big hurdle in the current market are two big ex-dividend banks,ANZ y Macquarie, whileTAKEit was the only major bank that traded higher.

The resource companies are divided. Take this example, gold diggerSilver Lake Resourcesis one of the top winners, up 7.4% to $1.09. Another company less the "silver",more resources(a lithium producer), is down 10% at $0.585.

Despite its name, Silver Lake mines gold, and those who produce the precious metal generally trade heavily these days, no doubt getting a boost fromNewcrest's acceptance of an acquisition by the North American giant Newmont.

Not only is this a sign of acquisition interest in the industry that could spill over to other companies, but it is also said that Newmont may want to split up and sell some of Newcrest's non-core assets, potentially creating buying opportunities.

National service provider Elsewhereit was a notable move and then fell 12.1%, or one dollar, to $7.30the publication of earnings results for the first half of the year.

No need to guess what the market thought about the 42.4% drop in net profit to $48.8 million, which the company said was due to a "volatile" but also "more normalized" business environment for products. agricultural basics.

How would you like your actual disposable income to be reduced?

Of salary increases well below inflation? Higher mortgage payments? Or a combination of the two.

The latter is what most working mortgage borrowers have experienced in the past year.

Many will hope that the second half of this year will provide a respite from further rate hikes, butAs David Taylor explains, which is highly dependent on whether their real wages continue to fall for some time.

Continuing the trend of recent years, the Tax and Customs Administration warns that this fiscal year will have a sharp focus on deductions related to residential investments.

"You can only claim interest on a loan with which you purchase a rental property to generate rental incomesaid ATO Deputy Commissioner Tim Loh.

"Don't forget that if your loan also includes private costs, such as a new car or a trip to Bali, you can only claim the interest deduction for the part related to generating your rental income."

Mr. Loh also warns against this.a small income on your home side can mean a small tax bill when you sellyour house.

“In general, your primary residence is exempt from CGT, but if you have used your home to generate income, such as renting it out in whole or in part through the sharing economy (Airbnb or Stayz, for example) or running a home business , then the CGT [capital gains tax] can be applied."

AndNassim Jademexplained in this story, there are alsochanges in the deduction for chores, how they are calculated, and the evidence you need to back them up.

NAB's yo-yo rate forecast continues.

The bank, which had signed off on a 4.1% interest rate hike in February, then backtracked, eventually settling for a 3.6% RBA cash rate hike before the surprise rate hike last month's rate will eliminate it.

NAB has now returned to its February forecast and expects the Reserve Bank to continueat leastanother rate hike.

He also blamed the RBA and its shift in communications for its frequently changing price forecasts.

“The main uncertainty for our interest rate expectations has been the RBA's reaction function, and the RBA's monetary policy strategy has been marked by some mixed signals in 2023.

"However, that's clear.the balance of short-term inflation risks remains on the riseand the RBA predicts that inflation will not return to the top of the target band until mid-2025.

“At least one more rate increase is likely to be needed to mitigate the risk of this timeline changing further.We do not rule out the possibility of a further increase to 4.35% if the data holds longer.

"Important,our prices do not respond to the recent federal budget, which we believe is largely neutral in terms of its effects on inflationand implications for monetary policy".

For those already struggling with rapidly rising major mortgage rates, NAB offers a glimmer of hope.

“Our view remains that as higher rates pass through to household cash flows and the broader economy, the economy will begin to slow more markedly in the second half of 2023 and into 2024, with a slowdown annual GDP growth to less than 1% and the unemployment rate begins to rise and will reach around 4.7% in 2024.

This makes it an increasingly difficult balancing act for the RBA to keep inflation low without slowing the economy down too much.We continue to expect cash rates to return to a more neutral environment of 3.1% in mid-2024as long as this delay continues."

So NAB expects rates to fall again, but only after a few hundred thousand people lose their jobs.

If you're not one of those people, that's good news for keeping track of your mortgage. If you are…

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There are two big chunks of economic data this week: wages and unemployment.

Both will be closely watched by the Reserve Bank as its board considers whether further rate increases are necessary to slow the economy and reduce inflation.

Payroll data is for the March quarter and will be released on Wednesday at 11:30 AM. m. AEST. The economists expectthe wage price indexit rose 0.9% in the first three months of this year and 3.6% last year.

Thursday,Data on the active population for Aprilwill be released by ABS at 11:30am AEST. Economists expect the creation of 25,000 jobs to bring the unemployment rate to 3.5%.

ABC's senior business correspondent Peter Ryan previewed the data with News Radio's Thomas Oriti.

Late last week we saw research from the Reserve Bank showing thatAustralia has an 80% chance of falling into recession.

But the definition used by the RBA may not be that of a'technical recession'You know, these are two consecutive quarters in which the economy (as measured by GDP) contracted.

Instead, the RBA used a modified version of theregla sahm.

What's that? I hear you ask.

As is often the case with anything related to economics,Gareth Hutchens has some answers and explanations for you..

ASX 200: -0.2% to 7,242 points

All ordinary: -0.2% to 7,437 points

Australian dollar: flat at 66.45 US cents

Dow Jones (Friday): flat at 33,301 points

S&P 500 (Friday): -0.2% to 4,124 points

Nasdaq (Friday): -0.4% to 12,285 points

FTSE (Friday): +0.3% to 7,755 points

EuroStoxx (Friday): +0.4% up to 465 points

Spot gold: fixed at $2,011 an ounce

Brent crude: flat at $74.16 a barrel

Iron ore (Friday): +3.6% to $102.10/tonne

Bitcoin: +1.4% por $26,815

I always have a hard time remembering to turn on comments.

Good morning Natty, thanks for being with us as always!

The Australian stock market has fallen in early trading, but things are not as bad as they seem.

Whilethe ASX 200 is down 0.2% at 7,244 points and the All Ords a similar amount at 7,439, much of the decline is due to ANZ and Macquarie.

Both banks are ex-dividend today, which means that anyone who buys their shares as of today will no longer receive their most recent shareholder distributions.

That's an 81p semi-annual dividend for ANZ and a payout of $4.50 per share to Macquarie shareholders.

That's the main reasonANZ shares were down $1.06, or 4.3%, at $23.44, while Macquarie shares were down $5.33, or 3%, at $173.75..

The banking industry as a whole is in trouble amid lingering concerns about the crisis at many regional US banks, as well as broader concerns about credit quality and profits at banks with higher-than-expected interest rates. They have been for over a decade. .

The financial sector on the ASX 200 fell 1.2 percent in the first 25 minutes, withindustry, education and technology also remained in the red.

On the other hand,mining and energy have a good day, with basic materials rising 0.9 percent.

My colleagueRaquel Pupazzonihe was just in South Korea for a media exchange funded by the two nations' foreign ministries and organized by Walkleys and the Korean Press Foundation.

While there, Rachel had the opportunity to speak with some of the key players in Korea's industrial and manufacturing sectors, who are relying on the Australian hydrogen insight to meet their net zero carbon emissions targets.

The main challenge seems to be,How do we get the hydrogen there without losing much of the energy content?

One solution is for Korean companies and those from other energy-consuming countries to establish some of their most energy-intensive processing operations here, close to the source.

Read more in Rachel's article here, or watch her story on The Business tonight at 8:45 p.m. m. AEST on the ABC news channel.

After a chase in recent months, US gold giant Newmont appears to have hit its Australian target, and Newcrest's board has agreed to back its takeover offer.

With no emerging top proposals, Newcrest's board has unanimously supported the offer to be submittedshareholders receive 0.4 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share they own.

Newcrest can also pay its shareholdera special prepaid dividend of up to $1.10 per sharebefore closing the deal.

This is what the Australian company saysthe deal values ​​Newcrest at $29.27 per share, a premium of 30.4%before Newmont's first offer is made.

The values ​​of the dealNewcrest with an enterprise value of $28.8 billion, leaving shareholders with a 31 percent stakein the joint venture.

Newcrest says it will leave the merged company as a "clear global leader in gold production" with a significant and growing presence in copper.

In addition to requiring the support of Newcrest shareholders, the deal will also need to be approved by the Foreign Investment Review Board and other regulators in several countries.

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